When all else fails, change the talking points!

From the department of moving goalposts:

WASHINGTON, Nov. 24 — With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections.

Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.

Now, the focus has shifted to smaller, short-term goals - like authorizing a budget for the nation. (But the Iraqis are already in the process of doing that anyway.)

And of course, the Bush maladministration is all hot and bothered to get the U.N. mandate that authorizes the presence of the American occupiers renewed. (They do this routinely because it's a puppet government that would not exist for more than thirty days if the Americans weren't propping them up.)

And de-de-baathification, so members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party can reenter government service. (That's merely pro forma - former Baathists have been rehired on the q.t. for some time, because they are the ones who actually know how to, you know, do the jobs.)

The administration insists that they have not given up on their larger goals, averring that they will be met *eventually.* But damnit, they have to figure out a way to make lemonade, and do it pronto.

They sold the AEI's Surge™ scheme by packaging it as a necessity, needed to give the political process "breathing space" to achieve reconciliation. Tours were extended, leaving soldiers in combat for 15 months with only 12 months dwell-time. They sacrificed American lives like they meant nothing. And the Iraqi parliament went on vacation the entire month of August.
Tony "Karma's a Bitch" Snow excused the fecklessness of the Iraqi politicians with a blasé "It's 130 degrees in Baghdad in August," conveniently forgetting that his war-criminal boss sent American fighting forces into that hellhole, and they didn't even get the benefit of operating in an air conditioned Green Zone when it was 130 degrees.

But reconciliation didn't happen.

In fact, Maliki and Hashemi snipe at one another like two bleached-blond teenage girls vying for head cheerleader in a one-high-school Texas football town.

Instead of sucking it up and admitting that things didn't work as planned, they are insisting that modest steps such as these - if taken soon - could, maybe, perhaps, if they cross their fingers and say the right magic words in just the right order and cadence, perhaps while hopping on one foot and chanting "I believe" - set the stage for "more progress." You know - like the Surge™ set the stage for the arming of the Sunni thugs who in the past were the insurgents who were killing Americans. (Well, give 'em guns and money and you can rent some temporary loyalty...)

But not to fear! aWol is "applying pressure" on the Iraqi government to produce some sort of political progress. “If we can show progress outside of the security sector alone, that will go a long way to demonstrate that we are in fact on a sustainable path to stability in Iraq,” said one senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity. On Saturday, [U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan] Crocker said the military had created opportunities for progress, and added that there were "indications" that Iraqis wanted to move forward on the local and national levels. But he quickly dialed back the expectations and cautioned against expecting quick results on the core issues.

“We are seeing encouraging signs of movement. This is going to be a long, hard slog,” he said, apparently channeling Rumsfeld, "It is going to be one thing at a time, maybe two things at a time, we hope with increasing momentum,” he said. “It is a long-term process.”

Although violence has ticked downward in recent months, the administration has not touted this development, because if they did, scrutiny would surely follow, and that they certainly don't want.

Furthermore, there are clear signs that any influence Americans have over Iraqi politicians is dwindling. In the absence of religious and ethnic reconciliation, the expectation has been dialed back to "accommodation." An American official, again speaking on condition of anonymity, said “We can’t pass their legislation. We can’t make them like each other. We can’t even make them talk to each other."

Crocker at least realizes that “The political stuff does not lend itself to sending out a couple of battalions to help the Iraqi’s pass legislation.” Still, he insisted that there are some positive signs that Iraqis are interested in making their own headway. For example, he pointed to Provincial governors, who are pressing for a law to define their powers. “We are past the point where it is an American agenda,” the ambassador said. “It is what needs to be done in Iraqi terms.” (In plain English - this is how warlords are made.)

Officials in both Baghdad and Washington are both realistic about the fact that military gains are not enough to overcome the deep divides that separate Iraqi factions. But in both capitals there are leaders who still engage in magical thinking. “We need a grand bargain among all the groups,” said a member of the Iraqi government - speaking - you guessed it - anonymously.

The most disturbing part of the whole thing is the repeated references to "long hard slogs" and the allusions to extended, multi-year commitments of American forces, like it's no big deal. But it is a big deal. Maybe not to these worthless, faithless and feckless jackals who have nothing to lose. But to the rest of us, it sure as hell is.

And if you agree, vote Democratic. Give the congress a Democratic president, and just as importantly the votes to end the obstruction of the Republican wingnuts who have no qualms about obstructing progress at the expense of American lives.

George aWol Bush has made the biggest mess the world has ever seen, and intends to keep the fucking up going apace and leave a mess so dire that the next president won't be able to extract us from.

Don't let him get away with it. Congress holds the pursestrings. Not one dime without strings attached. Not one dime.

With friends like these...

When over half of the foreign insurgents in Iraq are imported from Sunni countries that the Bush administration considers allies, there is only one thing to do...Blame Shiite Iran for all your troubles!
In the early morning hours of September 11, American forces surrounded an encampment in the desert near Sinjar, on the Syrian border.

The raid provided a trove of intelligence data, and highlighted just how far off the American intelligence estimates had been. For instance - military intelligence had estimated that 20% of the foreign fighters had come from Syria and Lebanon. The information seized in the Sinjar raid revealed no Lebanese and only 8% were Syrian. Conversely, prior to the Sinjar raid estimates had pegged the number of foreign insurgents from North Africa at around 10%. Information obtained in the raid revealed that over 30% of foreign Sunni jihadis are north Africans.

Of greatest significance was the number of Saudi's (41%) and Libyans (18%). Both Saudi Arabia and Libya are considered to be "allies" in the "GWOT™" and as such, are on the receiving end of American benevolence and aid.

And still - diplomats and military officials treat the Saudis with kid-gloves, taking great pains to absolve the House of Saud and the Saudi government. They draw bright lines of distinction that cast the blame onto charities and "bad imams" and other individuals.

Compare the asskissing of the Saudis to the way Iran - which supplies no combatants - is handled: A branch of the Iranian military is branded a terrorist organization.

A senior American official, speaking on condition of anonymity said he believed that Saudi citizens provide the vast majority of financing for the group calling itself al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. “They don’t want to see the Shias come to dominate in Iraq.”

What Great Patriots They Be

A cryptic photo, sent from parts unknown, purporting to be from The Blue Girl...

A reminder for folks on this observance of Veteran's Day:

Why Would Anyone Listen to John Bolton?

John Bolton on CNN:

BLITZER: But you know, in fairness to Mohamed ElBaradei, before the war in Iraq, when Condoleezza Rice and the president were speaking about mushroom clouds of Saddam Hussein and a revived nuclear weapons program that he may be undertaking, he was saying there was absolutely no such evidence. […]

BOLTON: Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

That's cute. We're supposed to believe that Bolton is some kind of authority? On the subject of proliferation?

Tell me, what are the man's accomplishments?

Tell me, what are the man's credentials?

Tell me, what has John Bolton ever gotten right?

The man couldn't even get confirmed for the job he was not even close to being the right person to fill. He was a self-important non-entity when serving at the United Nations. He was so bad, Condoleeza Rice made it known when taking over the State Department that Bolton would have to go. Oh, and he was part of the legal team that helped stop the Florida recount in 2000--anti-democratic blood runs in his veins, I get that. Beyond that, his thin resume and bogus credentials line up nice if you buy neo-con bullshit. Shame on CNN for having Bolton on its network. Can't they find someone who knows something about the subject? Is Bolton and his pornstar moustache the best they can do?

What a joke.

Between Iraq and a Hard Place

Yesterday, Resident Evil brought a load of organic fertilizer to the city I call home. And I was so stunned by his craven rewrite of recent history that I posted about it. Twice. (I simply do not possess the ability to let a literary offense go, and he committed a doozy.)

The chickenhawks and war pornographers are even undertaking a $15 million advertising campaign, headed up by former Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer. The ads feature as their star an enlisted soldier who issues an appeal to keep fighting. When asked about the ads and the soldier starring in them, Fleischer did not even know the young mans name. (So that right there tells you all you need to know about what these people really think about the G.I.'s in uniform. To them, they are a means to an end, and nothing more.)

Well, now that tomorrows New York Times is up on the website, I know why the knives are being sharpened for the dolschtosslegende, and I know why the spin is furious enough to separate red cells from plasma.

Tomorrow morning, a new intelligence assessment called “Prospects for Iraq’s Stability” will be released. I would say that it is likely to offer a grim forecast, but that would be too optimistic by at least half.

From the Times:

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the report will not be issued until Thursday, and spokesmen for both the White House and the director of national intelligence declined to comment. “The report says that there’s been little political progress to date, and it’s very gloomy on the chances for political progress in the future,” said one Congressional official with knowledge of its contents.

The new report also concludes that the American military has had success in recent months in tamping down sectarian violence in the country, according to officials who have read it.

The report, which was intended to help anticipate events over the next 6 to 12 months, is “more dire in its assessments” than the administration has been in its own internal discussions, according to one senior official who has read it. But the report also warns, as Mr. Bush did on Wednesday, that an early withdrawal would lead to more chaos.

“It doesn’t take a policy position,” one official said. “But it leaves you with the sense that what we’ve been doing hasn’t been working, but we can’t let up, or it’ll get worse.”

Lovely. We can't stay, and we can't go. We can't sustain the current course of action, and we can't change. Of course, if the little idiot would admit publicly that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake, and if he had it to do over again, he wouldn't, it would be a cathartic start. But bear in mind, I am more likely to be appointed pope than he is to admit an error.

Someone give me a valium and a stiff drink. That will keep my head from exploding, and I'll think about it tomorrow when I get back to Tara.

Violence Returns to Baghdad

After initially abating in the face of increased American troop presence, the bloodletting resumed in Baghdad on Thursday. Twenty-five bodies were found in the streets, in an indication that militia / death squad activity was ticking back upwards. A particularly bloody day in Baghdad ended with a coordinated bombing attack in a crowded Shi’ite marketplace.

Another Shi’ite neighborhood was the target of bombings in the city of Khalis in the explosive Diyala province.

In both instances, attacks were coordinated to inflict maximum civilian casualties. In the Baghdad marketplace, the bombers positioned themselves at either end of a maze of shopping stalls and blew them selves up. Over a hundred were wounded, and hospital officials estimated, based on a crude tally of body parts, that eighty perished.

The attack in Khalis followed the same attack strategy. Fifty-two were killed and eighty more were wounded. The local health center was quickly overwhelmed and ran out of basic supplies.

In both attacks, the bombers struck around 6:00 p.m. on Thursday evening, in crowded marketplaces, as Muslim families hurried to purchase provisions before Friday, the Muslim holy day.

In Tal Afar, after three days of particularly vicious sectarian fighting, the city remained under curfew, patrolled by American forces to keep the sides separated long enough for the currently enflamed passions to cool.

The initial success of the troop build-up was short lived, and we are right back where we started, but now more heavily invested. It is time to accept reality. All the wishful thinking in the world is not going to salvage a hash-mark in the “Win” column for the United States in Iraq’s civil war, and to even pretend its possible is folly pure and simple.

You know how I'm always saying it's a Bug Hunt?

Insurgents waged a five-hour pitched battle against Iraqi and American forces in al-Anbar province. The fighting started Amiriya, about 11 miles south of Fallouja on Tuesday night with an hour-long barrage of mortar fire directed at an Iraqi police station. The barrage continued until a United States Marines artillery unit fired on the insurgents and disrupted the shelling.

The fighting continued for hours and only ended when U.S. warplanes strafed militant positions, killing six and destroying their vehicles. The number of wounded was not reported.

I find it noteworthy that there seems to be a pattern emerging of insurgent forces fighting effectively enough against the Iraqi security forces that battles only end with U.S. airpower comes into the equation.

Elsewhere in iraq on Wednesday;

Iraqi police destroyed a massive truck bomb in a controlled explosion today that inadvertently killed one person, officials said.

The truck was parked under an overpass just yards from the Ministry of Finance, which was mostly empty because of a national holiday marking the Kurdish and Iranian New Year. A large quantity of explosives was discovered in the vehicle hidden under crates of vegetables, police said.

Explosives experts were brought in and security forces moved the vehicle to an open area. But the blast was so powerful, that it killed one onlooker, injured seven others and crumbled part of the highway, police said. (Really inspires confidence in those we are supposed to turn the reins over too, no?)

But the bomb was only part of the violence that wracked the provinces on Tuesday.

· Earlier, two roadside bombs targeting police patrols exploded in quick succession in east Baghdad. One officer was killed and three were injured along with a civilian, police said.

· Three mortar rounds slammed into homes in the Madain area, on the city's southern outskirts, killing three people and injuring 10, police said.

· U.S. forces killed five suspected insurgents and detained three others during a raid near Taji, north of Baghdad

· South of Baghdad, gunmen burst into the Ali ibn-Moussa Mosque in central Basra shortly after dawn prayers and opened fire, police said. The imam and a guard were killed and a municipal council employee was injured in the attack, police said.

· The body of a kidnapped police officer was found in Diwaniya, a strife-torn town south of Baghdad, police said.

As troops *surge* into Baghdad in an attempt to secure the capital, the violence just relocates, what Secretary Gates called a "squirting effect" - like the insurgency was so much incompressible liquid.

And when I say this is a Bug Hunt? This is what I mean.

[This post was linked at Salon's Blog Report, Blogging From the Left, on Saturday, March 24]

General Paul Eaton Interviewed By Bill Maher

Think I'm more inclined to believe a General than one of the Draft Dodgers at 1600.

Just sayin'.....

Constitutional crisis! Thank God the Democrats took over!

Holy hell! A General said that?!?!?

Why yes! Yes he did!

But wait! There's more!!!

The money quote came when Maher asked why the military still persists in supporting the president and his policies

"We've got this thing that, you know so many military believe that Republican administrations are good for the military, that is rarely the case and we have got to get a message through to every soldier, every family member, every friend of soldier, that the Republican party, the Republican dominated congress has absolutely been the worst thing that has ever happened to the United States Army and the United States Marine Corps..."

and he was drowned out when the crowd went nuts...

[And this is why I picked up and moved! I never got YouTube to import after the update to new blogger - a situation I just found wholly and utterly intolerable!]

Now Even Surge-ier! With 21% More Troops!

Ummm. I was right. Again. Quite a few of us were asking the question "what's the real troop numbers involved in this ill-advised troop buildup fiasco? I for one was quick to ask that question.

And I was right to do so.

A month after Dave Petraeus jetted off to Baghdad to assume command of ground forces there he is back, asking for more troops in addition to the 21,500 that are on the ground or in the deployment pipeline.

And the poisonous vine known as mission creep has taken firm root.

And the Bug Hunt continues - violence increases in the provinces of Diyala and Anbar while Baghdad simmers. Any perceived "peace" in Baghdad is a Potemkin Peace at best.

The surge was originally advertised as topping out at 21,500 additional troops. But on Wednesday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that Petraeus had requested 2,200 more military police – to serve as jailors for an expected increase in detainees – and that an additional 2,400 support troops would be needed, bringing the total surge to 27,100, a 21-percent increase over original expectations. (emphasis added)

Frederick Kagan, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute and an advocate of adding troops, blames the White House for the impression that the surge is growing. He says support troops were always going to be needed, but the Bush adminstration failed to make that clear. But he adds that Petraeus will ask for even more troops if he thinks they're needed. "Of course the enemy has a vote and the situation can change."

[SNIP]

The US won't be at full strength in Iraq until June. But even then, General McCaffrey warns, lasting gains won't be made quickly. "Can you, by continuous levels of combat presence, change the underlying nature of a civil war? Or course not, and Petraeus knows that,'' he says. What Petraeus can do, McCaffrey argues, is to create conditions in which the Shiite-backed government and allied militias and Sunni Arab insurgents decide it's in neither's interest to keep fighting. (emphasis added)

Petraeus said Thursday that Sunni insurgents appear to be moving out of the way of heightened US combat patrols, and said he may soon dispatch more forces to Diyala Province, just north of Baghdad. Sunni insurgents appear to be regrouping there, he said. Petraeus did strike some upbeat notes, saying that Sunni Arab Anbar Province – home to Fallujah and locale of the most US combat deaths – has been calmer, and attributed that to local leaders saying "enough" to the conflict.

Yep. Moving out of the way. Parse that phrase, why don't you. Moving out of the way. Not changing ideology, not laying down weapons, not striving for peace...Moving out of the way.

An act of self preservation, not political reconciliation. What one does when one wants to live to fight another day.

This is a Bug Hunt, and the Iraqis have the homefield advantage. Our soldiers and Marines don't know who the enemy is. It is an enemy that can fade into shadows and disappear. They are using the same tactics that Americans developed and perfected in our own War for Independence.

They are using the tactics of out-gunned insurgents everywhere.

I lived in the Middle East twice in my life, first as a Navy brat and then as an Air Force wife. The people of the region have a saying - Keeping ones enemy in a constant state of aggravation, agitation and tension is it's own victory.

The war in Iraq has proven that adage true.