Of Strafing Runs and Pyrrhic Victories

Last spring I started noticing a trend in the news reports coming out of Iraq. Air strikes were – are – being used with increasing frequency. Well, I was right to notice. As of the end of May, the United States had already dropped more bombs than they did in all of 2006, according to an AP story by Charles Hanley dated 05 June:

"U.S. warplanes have again stepped up attacks in Iraq, dropping bombs at more than twice the rate of a year ago. … And it appears to be accomplished by a rise in Iraqi civilian casualties.

"In the first 4 1/2 months of 2007, American aircraft dropped 237 bombs and missiles in support of ground forces in Iraq, already surpassing the 229 expended in all of 2006, according to Air Force figures obtained by The Associated Press."

Using air strikes against a counter-insurgency is a very serious act – it is a desperate last move of an army that is losing. It sure ain’t a stand-up fight. I would go so far as to argue that the reliance on air power is evidence of the failure of the s(pl)urge.

First of all, it indicates that our forces are facing an adversary that is increasing in effectiveness, and that is developing both strategic and tactical acumen. It speaks to the ability of the insurgents as a fighting force, at least to the locals.

The pitched battles will always go to the Americans, because the Americans can call in the Air Strikes. But that they are increasingly necessary in order for the Americans to not lose the battle, represents overwhelming psychological victory.

Air strikes always kill far more civilians than targeted fighters, and this serves to enrage the local populace. This has the net effect of increasing the sympathies of the locals to the insurgent fighters that were the targets of the aerial assault. Air strikes also kill indiscriminately and they destroy vital civilian infrastructure.

Psychologically, it is a boon to the insurgency – the United States is a bunch of cowards who only dare fight from five miles high, dropping bombs indiscriminately, on innocents as well as insurgents. Morally, it turns the United States into a Goliath that must be fought, and must be slain.

This is the stuff that martyrs are made of, and we are intervening in a culture with a long, strong and proud tradition of martyrdom. Just the folks whose resolve needs a good strengthening.

[Crossposted from WTWC]

Told You So

"The very fundamental issue is, they don't know where the hell they're going" General Jack Sheehan.

What a mess. They don’t know where they are going, other than the destination is 20 January 2009, when they can pass off this clusterfuck to the next president and then commence with the rewrite of history to try to pin the fact that the U.S. lost Bush's Vanity War in Iraq on another president.

Less than five months after their “new way forward’ was announced and the surge surged forward, they are backpeddling again, and the positions that are being promoted are the ones those of us on the other side of the issue were promoting 40,000 troops ago.

From McClatchy:

The administration's latest Iraq strategy, which military and civilian officials in Baghdad and Washington are assembling and national security adviser Stephen Hadley is coordinating, stresses efforts to strengthen the Iraqi army and the central government and weaken sectarian forces, said three U.S. officials who have firsthand knowledge of the plan.

The officials, all of whom spoke only on the condition of anonymity because they aren't authorized to discuss Iraq policy publicly, said the evolving plan - which Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker are preparing - didn't envision any significant drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq before 2008.

However, they said, "the search for a new direction," as one of the officials described the effort, was prompted by a recognition that the increase of American and Iraqi troops in Baghdad hasn't produced the improvements in security or the political progress that proponents of the buildup had expected and that domestic support for the administration's Iraq policy, even among Republicans, is ebbing quickly.

The administration's new Iraq war "czar," Army Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, remains skeptical that the surge can succeed, and instead has favored the kinds of political steps that Petraeus and Crocker have advocated, one of the officials said.

There's little optimism in Baghdad or Washington, however, that a new effort to strengthen the Iraqi army, bolster the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and weaken Sunni Muslim insurgents and Shiite Muslim militias is likely to succeed.

Personally, I find it thoroughly insulting that they are willing to give our ideas credence now, after they have engaged in a massive troop buildup, violence has ratcheted upward, and the Friedman Unit drawing to a close one week hence is the deadliest since the invasion of 2003 was launched.

You will just have to pardon me if I am less than gracious about it all. (Or don’t. I mean, I could possibly manage to care less what other people think of my positions on things if I really applied myself, but probably not. I know how I arrived where I am, and how many different cultures and time zones I lived in to get here.)

If ever there was a time I feel justified in assuming the mantle of the Jewish Mother saying “Well, I told you so. But do you ever listen to me? No.” it’s now. Fucking stone-deaf idiots.

Tell your Congressman to grow a pair, check this fool and send him the same God-damned bill over and over and hang the failures around his scrawny neck.

What part of November 7 do these morons – Democrat and Republican alike – not understand? We want direction, we want leadership and we want that leadership to show us the way out. The president is incompetent, incapable and increasingly inconsistent, and doing the exact opposite of what an intelligent, sentient, non-drug-addled, thinking human being would do. (But then, aWol is none of those things, so....)

Democrats guilty of capitulating to this increasingly inept and inane naked emperor need to face the wrath of the electorate – When we spoke six months ago, it was not to demand more of the same. And it sure as fuck wasn’t to be ignored and berated while the death ramped up, only to be considered as having relevant positions after the permanent escalation was made reality.

Body recovered from Euphrates that of missing American soldier

The body clad in American Army BDU’s pulled from the Euphrates River on Wednesday has been identified as Pfc. Joseph Anzack Jr., 20, of Torrance, California. Spc. Anzarack was one of three Americans captured in a nighttime raid on the position held by a squad of eight Americans on May 12.

That coordinated strike left four soldiers and an Iraqi interpreter dead; and three were taken captive. Intense effort has been applied to retrieving the three Americans alive over the past ten days.

"They told us, 'We're sorry to inform you the body we found has been identified as Joe,'" said the soldier's aunt, Debbie Anzack. "I'm in disbelief."

The abduction and death of Specialist Anzack follows a rumor that he had been killed in combat about a month ago. The rumor circulated that the Army Gunner had died, and a message on the school's MySpace page read "In Loving Memory Joseph Anzack Class of 2005." His father contacted the Red Cross about the rumors, and his commanders were able to get him to a phone so he could call home and assuage his parents worst fears.

Fate is a cruel bitch indeed.

The soldiers still missing are Pvt. Byron Fouty, 19, of Waterford, Mich. and Spc. Alex Jimenez, 25, of Lawrence, Mass. They are/were all members if the 4th Battalion, 31st Infantry Regiment of the 10th Mountain Division's 2nd Brigade combat team, home based at Ft. Drum New York. The 10^th Mountain has mounted intensive search and rescue operations, and two soldiers have been killed pursuing the rescue of their comrades in arms.

The discovery of the body cast a long shadow over the hometowns of the three missing soldiers. Without bodies, there is hope. With the recovery of Spc. Anzack’s body, it is harder to hold out hope for the safe return of the other soldiers.

But here is hoping for their safe return.

Shell Game

.

With Live Shells!!!

Let’s see…Add 30,000 troops and initially quell the sectarian violence in Baghdad – but, well, on closer examination, maybe not.

For every piece of news indicating “progress’ there are two more pointing out setbacks. Increase security in Baghdad and Anbar, and all hell breaks loose in Diyala.

Tamp down death squad activity – and a couple of bridges across the Tigris get blown up.

It isn’t so much tit-for-tat as it is pure, unadulterated one-upsmanship.

From the Washington Post:

U.S. commanders say sectarian murders fell from 1,200 in Baghdad in January to fewer than 400 in March. Markets are reopening, and a few thousand families have trickled back to areas they had fled.

But they agreed that among the most troubling trends in Iraq has been the proliferation of suicide bomb attacks, because they risk reigniting sectarian revenge killings and undermining the government. Suicide bombings have increased 30 percent over the six weeks that ended in early April, according to military data.

"When you have these big explosions, there is a very high risk of a major setback because it sends a message of instability and insecurity," said Fallon, head of U.S. Central Command.

It is virtually impossible to eliminate the suicide bombings, the commanders acknowledged. "I don't think you're ever going to get rid of all the car bombs," Petraeus said. "Iraq is going to have to learn -- as did, say, Northern Ireland -- to live with some degree of sensational attacks." A more realistic goal, he said, but one that has eluded U.S. and Iraqi forces, is to prevent the bombers from causing "horrific damage."

It’s a deadly shell game. Or, as Heinlein would say – it’s a Bug Hunt

Still a Bug Hunt

After two days of heavy fighting in Diwaniya, American airpower was called in to quell the violence.

Members of Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army (they are no longer abstaining from engaging Americans) have relocated to Diwaniya in recent weeks as the American troop presence has increased in Baghdad - because, well hey, the Americans can't be everywhere, now, can they?

The fighting started on Friday after American and Iraqi forces sealed off neighborhoods and started house-to-house searches, looking for members of the Mahdi Army. When such an operation results in two days of heavy fighting, it is quite obvious that all did not go swimmingly.

Iraqi police confirmed that seven rebel fighters were killed, fifteen more were wounded and dozens were arrested. No American casualties were reported.

I am disturbed by this stand-their-ground posture that Iraqi forces have been taking. A posture that seems to hold until airpower is called in, by the way.

I look at this through a different lens than most everyone else.

I see reason for caution. I see a resistance that is adapting and getting stronger.

I see the potential for a very, very bad day as American forces leave the hardened bases and spread out into the neighborhoods.

Thats not defeatism talking, that's realism talking. George aWol Bush is unwilling to deal with reality - and here is the real bitch of the whole deal - He isn't the one who has to deal with the reality of Iraq.

That unpleasant task is left to the 18-year-old rolling through Ramadi looking for IED's in a Hummer that may or may not have adequate armor. Oh, and the parents who bury him when Bush's grand scheme literally blows up in his face, of course.

Is this what "Success" looks like?

Revenge for the suicide bombings in Tal Afar two days ago have left scores of Sunni’s dead, after a suicide truck bomber targeted a Shi’ite Mosque by luring victims to the truck under the guise of selling wheat.

Within hours, Sunnis were rounded up and herded into the street, where many were shot in the head. The death squads were the local police. Tal Afar is a mixed city, but the police force is predominantly Shi’ite.

Back in Baghdad, more evidence that the insurgency is adapting to the increased American troop presence is accumulating rapidly.

In the areas that were targeted first for security sweeps by American forces, the bombs are going off again.

And here is a delightful new twist on insurgent tactics…Insurgents are capturing government buildings, like agriculture offices and the like, and blowing them up. This serves a dual purpose – it disrupts government operations at the local level – and it denies the Americans moving into the provinces in the attempt to “clear and hold” positions with too-few troops the opportunity to make a base of operations of the buildings most likely to have reliable water and power.

In light of these events, I’ll be stickin’ by that Bug Hunt assessment for now.

A troubling new trend

Attacks in Baghdad, which initially appeared to abate in the wake of increased American troop presence, have ticked back up in recent days as the dynamic changes and the insurgency adapts their tactics.

In a daring attack west of Baghdad, two suicide truck bombers and about thirty gunmen launched an assault against an American military position. The Americans repelled the attack and killed fifteen of the insurgents, but eight Americans were wounded, and the daring nature of the attack on the post in Garna could signal a troubling new change in tactics. The Iraqis now appear to be willing to go on the offensive and attack positions, engage American forces and fight battles.

Of course this new willingness to attack Americans has not resulted in fewer Iraqi casualties. The slaughter of innocents hasn't really shown any signs of slowing down.

Seventy-seven people died in bomb blasts around Iraq on Tuesday. In a particularly insidious attack in Tal Afar, a suicide truck bomber targeted a Mosque, and lured victims to his truck under the guise of selling wheat; then detonated his charges. It was one of a pair of truck bombings in Tal Afar that killed fifty people, total, and wounded two hundred. The second bomb attack in Tal Afar targeted a used car lot.

The death toll for Tuesday is expected to rise. The attack that targeted the Mosque destroyed twenty homes and shops, and victims were still being pulled from the smouldering rubble.

Tal Afar is a diverse city near the Syrian border, home to Shi’ite, Sunni and Turkmen. Last year, president Bush extolled Tal Afar as an example of the progress the United States was making in the region.

In Ramadi, in al Anbar Province, a suicide bomber detonated a car-bomb outside a restaurant on a major street. Seventeen were killed and thirty-two were wounded in that attack according to a hospital source.

You know how I'm always saying it's a Bug Hunt?

Insurgents waged a five-hour pitched battle against Iraqi and American forces in al-Anbar province. The fighting started Amiriya, about 11 miles south of Fallouja on Tuesday night with an hour-long barrage of mortar fire directed at an Iraqi police station. The barrage continued until a United States Marines artillery unit fired on the insurgents and disrupted the shelling.

The fighting continued for hours and only ended when U.S. warplanes strafed militant positions, killing six and destroying their vehicles. The number of wounded was not reported.

I find it noteworthy that there seems to be a pattern emerging of insurgent forces fighting effectively enough against the Iraqi security forces that battles only end with U.S. airpower comes into the equation.

Elsewhere in iraq on Wednesday;

Iraqi police destroyed a massive truck bomb in a controlled explosion today that inadvertently killed one person, officials said.

The truck was parked under an overpass just yards from the Ministry of Finance, which was mostly empty because of a national holiday marking the Kurdish and Iranian New Year. A large quantity of explosives was discovered in the vehicle hidden under crates of vegetables, police said.

Explosives experts were brought in and security forces moved the vehicle to an open area. But the blast was so powerful, that it killed one onlooker, injured seven others and crumbled part of the highway, police said. (Really inspires confidence in those we are supposed to turn the reins over too, no?)

But the bomb was only part of the violence that wracked the provinces on Tuesday.

· Earlier, two roadside bombs targeting police patrols exploded in quick succession in east Baghdad. One officer was killed and three were injured along with a civilian, police said.

· Three mortar rounds slammed into homes in the Madain area, on the city's southern outskirts, killing three people and injuring 10, police said.

· U.S. forces killed five suspected insurgents and detained three others during a raid near Taji, north of Baghdad

· South of Baghdad, gunmen burst into the Ali ibn-Moussa Mosque in central Basra shortly after dawn prayers and opened fire, police said. The imam and a guard were killed and a municipal council employee was injured in the attack, police said.

· The body of a kidnapped police officer was found in Diwaniya, a strife-torn town south of Baghdad, police said.

As troops *surge* into Baghdad in an attempt to secure the capital, the violence just relocates, what Secretary Gates called a "squirting effect" - like the insurgency was so much incompressible liquid.

And when I say this is a Bug Hunt? This is what I mean.

[This post was linked at Salon's Blog Report, Blogging From the Left, on Saturday, March 24]

Now Even Surge-ier! With 21% More Troops!

Ummm. I was right. Again. Quite a few of us were asking the question "what's the real troop numbers involved in this ill-advised troop buildup fiasco? I for one was quick to ask that question.

And I was right to do so.

A month after Dave Petraeus jetted off to Baghdad to assume command of ground forces there he is back, asking for more troops in addition to the 21,500 that are on the ground or in the deployment pipeline.

And the poisonous vine known as mission creep has taken firm root.

And the Bug Hunt continues - violence increases in the provinces of Diyala and Anbar while Baghdad simmers. Any perceived "peace" in Baghdad is a Potemkin Peace at best.

The surge was originally advertised as topping out at 21,500 additional troops. But on Wednesday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that Petraeus had requested 2,200 more military police – to serve as jailors for an expected increase in detainees – and that an additional 2,400 support troops would be needed, bringing the total surge to 27,100, a 21-percent increase over original expectations. (emphasis added)

Frederick Kagan, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute and an advocate of adding troops, blames the White House for the impression that the surge is growing. He says support troops were always going to be needed, but the Bush adminstration failed to make that clear. But he adds that Petraeus will ask for even more troops if he thinks they're needed. "Of course the enemy has a vote and the situation can change."

[SNIP]

The US won't be at full strength in Iraq until June. But even then, General McCaffrey warns, lasting gains won't be made quickly. "Can you, by continuous levels of combat presence, change the underlying nature of a civil war? Or course not, and Petraeus knows that,'' he says. What Petraeus can do, McCaffrey argues, is to create conditions in which the Shiite-backed government and allied militias and Sunni Arab insurgents decide it's in neither's interest to keep fighting. (emphasis added)

Petraeus said Thursday that Sunni insurgents appear to be moving out of the way of heightened US combat patrols, and said he may soon dispatch more forces to Diyala Province, just north of Baghdad. Sunni insurgents appear to be regrouping there, he said. Petraeus did strike some upbeat notes, saying that Sunni Arab Anbar Province – home to Fallujah and locale of the most US combat deaths – has been calmer, and attributed that to local leaders saying "enough" to the conflict.

Yep. Moving out of the way. Parse that phrase, why don't you. Moving out of the way. Not changing ideology, not laying down weapons, not striving for peace...Moving out of the way.

An act of self preservation, not political reconciliation. What one does when one wants to live to fight another day.

This is a Bug Hunt, and the Iraqis have the homefield advantage. Our soldiers and Marines don't know who the enemy is. It is an enemy that can fade into shadows and disappear. They are using the same tactics that Americans developed and perfected in our own War for Independence.

They are using the tactics of out-gunned insurgents everywhere.

I lived in the Middle East twice in my life, first as a Navy brat and then as an Air Force wife. The people of the region have a saying - Keeping ones enemy in a constant state of aggravation, agitation and tension is it's own victory.

The war in Iraq has proven that adage true.