Suicide Bomber strikes Pakistan's Red Mosque

A suicide bomber claimed at least fifteen victims when he detonated an explosives-laden vest in the midst of a rally at the Red Mosque in the capital Islamabad. It was apparently the latest act of revenge by Islamic fundamentalist militants for a raid on the mosque a year ago. That raid, ordered by Musharaf, was supposed to be a quick operation to arrest militants holed up inside, but turned into a 20-hour battle that left scores of militants and several commandos from the Pakistani Army dead. Of the hundreds of militants occupying the mosque, only 83 survived, most of them women and children.

That raid unleashed a wave of suicide attacks, many targeted at police officers and security personnel. The AFP is reporting that this attack deliberately targeted policemen. Dozens of dead and injured officers lay in pools of blood after Sunday's blast, batons shields and helmets strewn about, their uniforms ripped to shreds, an AFP photographer said.


Todays event at the mosque was to commemorate the anniversary of that raid.

"The whole event at the mosque went smoothly but then the suicide bomber targeted the security forces," interior ministry chief Rehman Malik told reporters at the scene.

Musharraf condemned the blast and reiterated the government's "commitment to root-out terrorism in all its forms and manifestations," the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan news agency reported.

The US-backed leader, whose allies were defeated in elections in February, urged the new government on Friday to do more to combat militancy, warning that otherwise there would be "Red Mosques everywhere".

A senior Pakistani security official, speaking to the AFP on condition of anonymity, said that a young man "walked into the police contingent and apparently blew himself up. "The blast happened 15 minutes after the meeting dispersed. A heavy contingent of police was at a main crossing several hundred metres from the mosque and they were targeted in the attack," the official added.

We have been trying to keep a watchful eye on the situation in Pakistan - after all, the threat of nuclear weapons falling into terrorist hands quite properly scares the hell out of us - and the threat of that happening is greater with our ally Pakistan than with all other threats, real or perceived, combined

How Republicans Have Failed to Protect The American People

Everyone will probably be talking about this, so why shouldn't we? It's not a shock to anyone that al Qaeda is using Pakistan to reconstitute itself. So why is it a shock to anyone when people criticize the relationship between the man who runs Pakistan and the Bush Administration?

Just as it had on the day before 9/11, Al Qaeda now has a band of terror camps from which to plan and train for attacks against Western targets, including the United States. Officials say the new camps are smaller than the ones the group used prior to 2001. However, despite dozens of American missile strikes in Pakistan since 2002, one retired C.I.A. officer estimated that the makeshift training compounds now have as many as 2,000 local and foreign militants, up from several hundred three years ago.

Publicly, senior American and Pakistani officials have said that the creation of a Qaeda haven in the tribal areas was in many ways inevitable — that the lawless badlands where ethnic Pashtun tribes have resisted government control for centuries were a natural place for a dispirited terror network to find refuge. The American and Pakistani officials also blame a disastrous cease-fire brokered between the Pakistani government and militants in 2006.

But more than four dozen interviews in Washington and Pakistan tell another story. American intelligence officials say that the Qaeda hunt in Pakistan, code-named Operation Cannonball by the C.I.A. in 2006, was often undermined by bitter disagreements within the Bush administration and within the intelligence agency, including about whether American commandos should launch ground raids inside the tribal areas.

Inside the C.I.A., the fights included clashes between the agency’s outposts in Kabul, Afghanistan, and Islamabad. There were also battles between field officers and the counterterrorism center at C.I.A. headquarters, whose preference for carrying out raids remotely, via Predator missile strikes, was derided by officers in the Islamabad station as the work of “boys with toys.”

An early arrangement that allowed American commandos to join Pakistani units on raids inside the tribal areas was halted in 2003 after protests in Pakistan. Another combat mission that came within hours of being launched in 2005 was scuttled because some C.I.A. officials in Pakistan questioned the accuracy of the intelligence, and because aides to Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld believed that the mission force had become too large.

Current and former military and intelligence officials said that the war in Iraq consistently diverted resources and high-level attention from the tribal areas. When American military and intelligence officials requested additional Predator drones to survey the tribal areas, they were told no drones were available because they had been sent to Iraq.

Some former officials say Mr. Bush should have done more to confront Mr. Musharraf, by aggressively demanding that he acknowledge the scale of the militant threat.

Western military officials say Mr. Musharraf was instead often distracted by his own political problems, and effectively allowed militants to regroup by brokering peace agreements with them.

There, in a nutshell, is how the Republicans have led this government in the fight against terrorism: they demonstrate that they have no idea what they're doing, and they bully everyone into believing the opposite is true. They suck at the game so they work the refs. They can't do details or substance so they dissolve into bitter infighting, ineffective taunts and indifferent policies that achieve nothing. Their track record is abysmal and a future with them running things--unthinkable.

And the American people are to believe that John "stop the bullshit" McCain is going to be a better diplomat, be more "detail oriented " and pay better attention to the problem? Focus on the needs of agencies he has long derided and devote the necessary resources to it? Will he undertake these efforts before or after the 100 year war in Iraq is up? During a 40 hour workweek or on weekends, because McCain doesn't do weekends, you know. Before or after McCain snarls at everyone when he doesn't get what he wants?

You can't make this stuff up--and it gets scarier every day.

--WS

AQ Khan Resurfaces

It's never a good thing when AQ Khan is back in the news--and what is the difference between him and Scott McClellan, anyway?

Four years ago Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan confessed to sharing nuclear secrets with some of the world's most notorious dictatorships.

Today he did a complete about-face.

“I was not involved in any nuclear proliferation,” he told CBS News by telephone from his home in Islamabad.

Dr Kahn has been under house arrest for the four years since his televised confession in 2004.

On February 4, that year, he appeared on Pakistani national television after a government investigation into his role in transferring nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.

“I was confronted with the evidence," Khan said, "and I have voluntarily admitted that much of it is true and accurate.”

A metallurgical engineer, he had been awarded a gold medal by the Pakistani government after the country's successful nuclear tests in 1998.

There has clearly been some shift, politically, socially, or otherwise, that has allowed Khan to speak out in this way and drop one of the biggest bombshells about proliferation in years. The first question--is he telling the truth?--is the hardest to answer. It's entirely possible that Khan is tired of being detained at home and wants some time in the spotlight. Speaking this way indicates he has no fear. Somehow, someone was able to pressure him into either lying or telling the truth in 2004 and now that pressure is gone.

Today, though, Khan told CBS News that he had not written that confession, but merely read a document put in front of him “because of the promises that were made.”

Back in 2004, Khan was never charged with any crime, and was given a full pardon by the Pakistani government a day after his television appearance.

Asked today whether he had had anything to do with the Libyan or Iranian nuclear programs, Khan said no.

“I have never put my foot on Iranian soil, I never met any Iranians..” he said. "And I never put my foot on the Libyan soil.”

“When they asked my assistance, I told them, ‘Go to the people in Dubai who supplied us.’”

Khan is now claiming that the parts necessary for a nuclear program are available for the asking from open suppliers in Dubai - a claim that, he feels, absolves him from any responsibility.

It’s also a claim that is contradicted by solid evidence collected by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Pakistani, U.S. and Dutch governments.

Sort of makes the most recent NIE on Iran's nuclear weapons program look a little more interesting, doesn't it?

If Khan is telling the truth, then someone somewhere has been perpetrating some very serious lies.

Why Baitullah Mehsud Matters

The man that some believe responsible for the killing of Benazir Bhutto is the primary link between Pakistan and the Taliban. A recent deal between Pakistan and the militants may allow Mehsud to consolidate his power:

Daniel Markey, a former State Department specialist on South Asian issues, sat down with the Council on Foreign Relations to speak about the rise of the "Mehsud" tribes and their leader.

...the Pakistani army has really moved into the area in force and enforced an economic blockade against Mehsud tribes before starting negotiations. It has inflicted various punishments on some of the tribal villages to demonstrate that the army, in fact, has the upper hand. That's one difference. The other difference that I was told about on my trip is that this time the Pakistani government claims to be negotiating, not with the Taliban directly, but with tribal leaders. This is a potentially significant difference because the army—or the Pakistani government—claims that by negotiating with tribal leaders, not militants, they can hold these tribal leaders accountable for enforcing the agreement and make them, the tribal leaders, crack down on the militants who are among them.

So who is Baitullah Mehsud and why should we care about him?

He is viewed as a menace to internal security in Pakistan and is also probably connected to broader terrorist and militant activities in the region and possibly beyond that. Now on the other hand, he comes from the Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan. He is not a traditional leader of the Mehsud tribe. He is a self-appointed leader of a group called the “Pakistani Taliban.” There are other leaders, people who have gained leadership either through hereditary titles or because they are popular representatives of the wider tribe, who would be normal negotiating partners with the Pakistani army under these conditions. Those are the leaders whom the Pakistani government claims to be working with to hammer out a deal. Those are the leaders who would be held responsible for making sure people like Baitullah Mehsud and his associates are kept in line if a deal is worked out.

Now the relationship between those more legitimate tribal leaders and militants like Baitullah Mehsud is not entirely clear. By many accounts, at this stage of the game Baitullah Mehsud and the other militants actually have more power than the tribal leaders and are really calling the shots, in which case this may not be a serious distinction that the Pakistani government may be making. That's one reason why the United States and others need to be concerned about this deal.

Markey breaks down why it is important to know who Mehsud is and why he may either be yet another distant cousin of a wannabe terrorists or someone who may one day be a more deadly threat to the West than Osama bin Laden:

I think there are three broad categories that the United States needs to be worried about in Pakistan's tribal areas. The first would be that of Baitullah Mehsud, a Pakistani militant of the Pakistan Taliban. The second would be the Afghan Taliban, sort of symbolized by Mullah Omar, the former leaders of Afghanistan prior to September 11 who fled to Pakistan. The third would be al-Qaeda and other foreign, international terrorists. Now the connections between all of these as well as many other types of militant organizations in the area are often very, very difficult to discern.

It would appear, given Baitullah Mehsud's own rhetoric, and he's talked about the need to destroy New York, to destroy London, to destroy Washington, that he is definitely, at least rhetorically, on a similar page as al-Qaeda. He has claimed to have had contact with al-Qaeda leaders, including Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the former al-Qaeda leader who was killed in Iraq. Also his wide use of suicide bombing as a tactic is something that didn't really happen much in Pakistan much beforehand. So it’s a relatively new thing and it's obviously very consistent with the wider al-Qaeda strategy. So he may be connected to that as well. Whether he is actually involved in helping to harbor senior al-Qaeda leaders or has regular connections with them, is at this point impossible to say.

What's especially troubling is that, according to the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the Bush Administration lacks a cohesive plan for dealing with the likes of Mehsud. In a report entitled "The United States Lacks Comprehensive Plan to Destroy the Terrorist Threat and Close the Safe Haven in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas" from April of this year, the Mehsud tribes and Baitullah Mehsud are not even identified by name. But the most troubling aspect of the report is this:

The United States has not met its national security goals to destroy the terrorist threat and close the safe haven in Pakistan’s FATA region. Since 2002, the United States has relied principally on the Pakistani military to address its national security goals. There have been limited efforts, however, to address other underlying causes of terrorism in the FATA by providing development assistance or by addressing the FATA’s political needs. Of the over $10.5 billion that the United States has provided to Pakistan from 2002 through 2007, we identified about $5.8 billion specifically for Pakistan’s FATA and border region; about 96 percent of this funding reimbursed Pakistan for military operations in the FATA and the border region. According to Defense and State Department officials, Pakistan deployed up to 120,000 military and paramilitary forces in the FATA and killed and captured hundreds of suspected al Qaeda operatives. In October 2007, State reported that it had determined that Pakistan was making “significant” progress toward eliminating the safe haven in the FATA. However, we found broad agreement, as documented in the unclassified 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), State and embassy documents, as well as among Defense, State, and other officials, including those operating in Pakistan, that al Qaeda had regenerated its ability to attack the United States and had succeeded in establishing a safe haven in Pakistan’s FATA.

No comprehensive plan for meeting U.S. national security goals in the FATA has been developed, as stipulated by the National Strategy for Combating Terrorism, recommended by the independent 9/11 Commission, and mandated by congressional legislation. Since 2003, the administration’s national security strategies and Congress have recognized that a comprehensive plan that includes all elements of national power—diplomatic, military, intelligence, development assistance, economic, and law enforcement support—was needed to address the terrorist threat emanating from the FATA. Furthermore, in 2004, a provision of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (Intelligence Reform Act) established the NCTC to develop comprehensive plans to combat terrorism that included clear objectives, the assignment of tasks among executive branch departments, and interagency coordination. We have previously reported on the need for these and other elements to enhance interagency cooperation and improve effectiveness. The NCTC also was tasked with monitoring each department’s efforts. However, neither the NCTC, the NSC, nor the other executive branch departments have developed a comprehensive plan that integrates the capabilities of the executive agencies and the intelligence community. As a result, since 2002, the embassy has had no Washington-supported, comprehensive plan to combat terrorists and close the terrorist safe haven in the FATA. In 2006, the U.S. government, in conjunction with the government of Pakistan, began an effort to focus more attention on other key elements of national power, such as development and public diplomacy, to address U.S. goals in the FATA. In support of this effort, Defense, State, and USAID began to develop department-specific plans and hold interagency meetings to address security and development issues in the FATA.

The GAO went on to call for the Bush Administration to:

We recommend that the National Security Advisor and the Director of the NCTC, in consultation with the Secretaries of Defense and State, and the Administrator of USAID, the intelligence community, and other executive departments as deemed appropriate, implement the congressional mandate to develop a comprehensive plan using all elements of national power to combat the terrorist threat and close their safe haven in Pakistan’s FATA region.

The comprehensive plan should also include key components called for in the Intelligence Reform Act, the Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007, and components that we have previously reported as being needed to improve the effectiveness of plans involving multidepartmental efforts to combat terrorism.17 The plan should (1) place someone directly in charge of this multidepartment effort to improve accountability; (2) articulate a clear strategy to implement the national security goal to destroy terrorists and close the safe haven in the FATA; (3) clarify roles and responsibilities of each department for implementing the goal; (4) provide guidance on setting funding priorities and providing resources to meet these national security goals; and (5) require a monitoring system and provide periodic reports to Congress on the progress and impediments to meeting national security goals in Pakistan.

So there is no question--Congressional oversight means nothing. Despite the best efforts of the Congress to try to do something, anything to get the Bush Administration to actually fight terrorism, they drag their feet and do nothing. Not surprisingly,

State and ODNI did not comment on our recommendation, while Defense and USAID concurred with our recommendation. In general, they all commented on their individual planning efforts and interagency meetings to coordinate these efforts that began in 2006. This, however, was not the focus of our review; our report assessed whether a comprehensive plan had been developed that incorporated all elements of national power. We plan to conduct a detailed assessment of the individual agency efforts from 2002 to the present as part of our broader engagement efforts and look forward to working closely with ODNI, Defense, State, USAID, and other agencies in assessing their plans and efforts to meet national security goals in Pakistan.

State’s comments assert that embassy and U.S. government efforts to date have resulted in a comprehensive strategy. We disagree and note in our report that, while the initiatives begun by Defense, State, and USAID are being coordinated by the embassy, they have not been fully approved or integrated into a formal, comprehensive plan. While we acknowledge that this effort is a step in the right direction toward implementing the 2003 national security strategy, the recommendations by the 9/11 Commission, and Congress, it is unclear whether the new approach will include all of the key elements of national power, such as intelligence, economic, and law enforcement support.

ODNI’s comments stated that they agreed with our finding that the United States had not met its national security goals in Pakistan’s FATA and that countering the growth of terrorist safe havens requires all elements of national power. They disagreed, however, that the United States lacks plans to combat terrorism in the area.

Your Bush administration at work. While actual terrorists are busy working out the details, they're paralyzed by the Iraq War and they're more concerned with glossy pictures in the entryway, a phony legacy that has already dissipated into nothing, and anything but actually stopping them.

“NATO is in Afghanistan; it’s time they did some soldiering.”

The United States is running into resistance from Pakistan when it comes to securing the border between that country and Afghanistan.

“Pakistan will take care of its own problems, you take care of Afghanistan on your side,” said Owari Ghani, the governor of North-West Frontier Province, who is also President Pervez Musharraf’s representative in charge of the neighboring tribal areas.

Mr. Ghani, a key architect of the pending peace accord, believes along with many other Pakistani leaders that the United States is floundering in the war in Afghanistan. Pakistan, he said, should not be saddled with America’s mistakes, especially if a solution involved breaching Pakistan’s sovereignty, a delicate matter in a nation where sentiment against the Bush administration runs high.

“Pakistan is a sovereign state,” he said. “NATO is in Afghanistan; it’s time they did some soldiering.”

The US and NATO regularly target Taliban forces on either side of the border:

On Wednesday night, the United States fired its fourth Predator missile strike since January, the most visible symbol of the American push for a freer hand to pursue militants from Al Qaeda and the Taliban who use Pakistan’s tribal areas as a base to attack Afghanistan and plot terrorist attacks abroad. In Afghanistan, cross-border attacks have doubled over the same month last year and present an increasingly lethal challenge to American and NATO efforts to wind down the war and deny the Taliban and Al Qaeda a sanctuary.

In an unusual step during a visit to Pakistan in March, Adm. Eric T. Olson, the commander of United States Special Operations Command, held a round-table discussion with a group of civilian Pakistani leaders to sound them out on the possibility of cross-border raids by American forces. He was told in no uncertain terms that from the Pakistani point of view it was a bad idea, said one of the participants.

Instead, Pakistani officials are trying to restore calm to their country, which was rattled by a record number of suicide attacks last year. Within days, they are expected to strike a peace accord with Pakistan’s own militants that makes no mention of stopping the infiltrations. In fact, Pakistani counterinsurgency operations have stopped during the new government’s negotiations with the militants.

[SNIP]

American officials in Washington said the Predator strike on Wednesday killed a handful of Qaeda militants, including one they described as a “significant leader.” The strike indicated that the C.I.A. retained some freedom to operate in the tribal areas. But as the gap between Pakistani and American policies widens, United States officials are pushing harder for still more latitude.

During his visit to North-West Frontier Province, Admiral Olson was taken to the military headquarters of the 14th Division of the Pakistani Army in Dera Ismail Khan, an area just outside the tribal region, where he was struck by the extent of the anti-Taliban sentiment, Pakistani officials said.

Still, in the talks, which were organized by the United States Consulate here in late March, the civilian leaders said they advised the Americans against fighting in Pakistani territory populated by Pashtuns. Pakistan’s government has long been wary of nationalist and separatist strains among the Pashtuns, whose population straddles the Pakistani-Afghan border.

“I said it would be extremely dangerous,” Khalid Aziz, a former chief secretary of North-West Frontier Province, said he told Admiral Olson. “It would increase the number of militants, it would be a war of liberation for the Pashtuns. They would say: ‘We are being slaughtered. Our enemy is the United States.’"

Map-languages and regions of Afghanistan

Within Pakistan, there are indications that the coalition government is coming apart:

Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif pulled his party out of Pakistan's six-week-old coalition government on Monday, plunging the volatile Muslim nation back into political uncertainty.

Sharif, whose Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) was the second-largest member of a four party alliance, made the announcement after failing to break a deadlock with its main coalition partner over the reinstatement of dismissed judges.

Sharif made the restoration of 60 judges sacked by President Pervez Musharraf in November the main condition for joining the coalition led by the party of Asif Ali Zardari, the widower and political successor of the late Benazir Bhutto.

Three days of talks in London between Sharif and Zardari, whose Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leads the coalition, ended on Sunday without any breakthrough.

"Our ministers will meet the prime minister tomorrow and will submit their resignations," Sharif told a news conference.

Nine of the 24 ministers in Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani's cabinet belong to the PML-N, including Finance Minister Ishaq Dar.

Sharif said his party would continue to support the PPP government despite quitting the cabinet.

"For the time being, we'll not sit in opposition."

Despite the possibility of the collapse of the Pakistani government, however, the New York Times says that the US is stepping up its rhetoric:

Last week John D. Negroponte, the deputy secretary of state, used perhaps the strongest language yet against Pakistan, saying that the United States found it “unacceptable” that extremists used the tribal areas to plan attacks against Afghanistan, the rest of the world and Pakistan itself.

“We will not be satisfied until the violent extremism emanating from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas is brought under control,” Mr. Negroponte told the National Endowment for Democracy.

Earlier this month, Afrasiab Khattak and Asfandyar Wali Khan, the leaders of the Awami National Party, which leads the government in the North-West Frontier Province, met with Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, and Mr. Negroponte in Washington.

In their meetings, Mr. Khattak said, it was hard to deter the Americans from the notion of launching their own operations into Pakistan. The topic came up “again and again,” he said.

The Americans specifically mentioned their concern that Qaeda operatives in the tribal areas were preparing an attack on the United States, he said.

“We told them physical intervention into the tribal areas by the United States would be a blunder,” Mr. Khattak said. “It would create an atmosphere in which the terrorists would rally” popular support.

Should the United States and its NATO allies be focused on operations along the Pakistani border at all? According to researcher Sarah Meyer, the Afghan people are facing starvation and famine due to a particularly harsh winter, coupled with ongoing war in their country:

Among the resources compiled by Meyer, this article highlights the need to take care of the Afghan people:

If instead of the fields of poppies there were expanses of wheat, 18 million Afghans who today suffer from hunger would have enough food. With these statements - which appear a bit naive - the experts of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) have declared that by better using international funds, the development of new irrigation and technology systems for agriculture could be realised. But the most difficult thing is convincing Afghan farmers to change their extensive opium cultivation to the production of wheat, fruit, and vegetables.

According to data supplied by the UN, Afghanistan uses 193,000 hectares of land for the cultivation of poppy, and produces more than 90% of the opium in circulation. The estimates reveal that by the end of 2008, the country will produce more than 8,200 tonnes of raw opium.

According to some experts, the world economic crisis and the dizzying rise in food prices everywhere could prompt farmers to convert their poppy fields to wheat. In fact, the price of wheat has risen from 157 dollars per tonne in January to 500 dollars in April of this year.

Tekeste Ghebray Tekie, the FAO representative in Afghanistan, is certain that by growing wheat with the appropriate irrigation systems, more than two and a half tons per hectare could be produced. "If you use this land for high cash crops like vegetables, fruit or cotton", Tekeste says, "then the contribution to food security will be enormous".

Before the Soviet invasion in 1979, Afghanistan had much more irrigated land, but the irrigation systems were destroyed during the war. After the United States military intervention in the country, begun in October of 2001, 15 billion dollars in international aid was invested. But according to Oxfam, only 300 million of this has been earmarked for agriculture.

Photo: Dara, Afghanistan

Herschel Smith at The Captain's Journal highlights efforts by the US Department of Agriculture to assist Counterinsurgency Operations in Afghanistan:

Body armor is not in [Jeff] Knowles’ typical wardrobe as an employee of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). But then again, working with farmers in Afghanistan to help rebuild their agricultural system isn’t his typical work either.

Knowles, who now lives in Hawaii, spent six months in the war-scarred nation talking with farmers about what they grow and what their needs are. He was honored last week by USDA secretary Ed Schafer for his service in Afghanistan in 2005-06.

“I think it’s one of the best things we’re doing in the country,” Knowles said via a phone interview from his USDA office in Hawaii. “If we can help improve quality of life for farmers — and 95 percent of the Afghan people are farmers — we’re doing something real.”

Living conditions are rough. And most farmers are subsistence farmers, growing crops like wheat, potatoes, onions, tomatoes, apricots, apples and almonds.

But getting enough water for crops is a major issue …

It was in Hawaii that Knowles decided to volunteer for a six-month stint in Afghanistan.

“It was really intriguing to me — they were facing problems with erosion, heavy and widespread, and a lot of their irrigation system was destroyed,” he said. “It seemed that my entire career was pointing to this. The things I’d been working with for close to 30 years were the things they needed in Afghanistan.”

The War In Afghanistan Enters an Escalation Phase

Today, we're going to take a look at what's going on in Afghanistan.

Capt. Chris Hammonds expected it. In a mud-brick command center, the 32-year-old Army Ranger pivoted between a radio and a map, tracking reports of approaching Taliban. Several explosions soon ripped through the night as U.S. forces hit the suspected Taliban positions, including a cross-border guided-munitions strike on a compound about a mile inside Pakistan where senior associates of Siraj Haqqani -- considered one of the most dangerous Taliban commanders -- were thought to be meeting.

The U.S. military usually strikes across the border only when taking accurate fire from Pakistan, and standard practice calls for informing the Pakistani military about threats from its side. But Hammonds argued that the Pakistani military checkpoint was "under siege" from the Taliban and that Pakistani officers -- fearful of retaliation -- could tip off the insurgents.

First of all, I'm not going to criticize Captain Hammonds in any way, shape or form. He is on the ground and he is carrying out his orders and he is protecting the lives of his men. Second of all, I am going to criticize the tactics. Third, I'm going to explain why criticizing the tactics DOES NOT mean that I'm finding fault with Captain Hammonds.

The end result of carrying the fight across an International border:

The rare strike averted an imminent Taliban attack, Hammonds said, but across the border a starkly different account emerged. "Two women and two children got killed, so whatever was assessed was not correct," said Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, a spokesman for the Pakistani army. No Taliban were meeting in the family compound, he said. The Pakistani government issued a protest, and demonstrations erupted. "We were never informed about the strike," Abbas said. "This has serious implications for operations."

The March 12 incident highlights how, more than six years into the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, efforts to stabilize the country increasingly focus on the rugged frontier area straddling the border with Pakistan. Over the past 18 months, Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters have exploited peace deals by Pakistan's government to create an unprecedented haven in the region, U.S. officials said. From there, insurgents have escalated attacks in Pakistan and in eastern Afghanistan, leading the United States last year to double its troop presence along more than 600 miles of frontier.

The short answer--we're escalating the war into Pakistan. Do we need to? If that's where the enemy is, yes. But there's a right way and a wrong way, and the wrong way is to get lazy and rely on airstrikes or long range artillery. This just creates insurgents. I'm sorry, but send the F-16s home and replace them with helicopters that can ferry in supplies and extra troops when there's trouble.

What do leading proponents of effective Counterinsurgency or "COIN" tactics say about these types of incidents?

Indiscriminate attacks against non-combatants and human-rights abuses aid and abet the enemy’s cause. In our globalized world, abuses such as prisoner maltreatment in Abu Ghraib are quickly broadcast around the globe. Our enemies use these accounts and images as part of their propaganda campaign to discredit host-nation governments and distort popular perceptions of our intentions. Such propaganda mobilizes those who were previously friendly or at least neutral to our efforts to bring stability and security.

Now, this was a fairly discriminate attack. This was not a case where there wasn't a good reason to make a move against the Taliban. The motive was clear but the end result was a propaganda victory for the enemy.

Instead of Captain Hammonds and his men being in a position they are forced to defend, why not take Captain Hammonds OUT of his position and put him in a position to succeed. That is, allow him to close with his real enemy and kill that enemy, irregardless of the International boundary? Here's why I think this is a better approach:

Toward that end, the Army should consider abolishing branch distinctions among field-grade officers for most within the operational career field. Under the current model, an officer remains in his basic branch until he retires or is promoted to the rank of general officer. This lifelong branch affiliation narrows an officer’s perspective and limits his familiarity with capabilities outside his branch. The new model for career advancement should terminate branch affiliation for most officers in the operational career field at the rank of captain. A captain who commands with distinction within his basic branch should have the opportunity to command again in another branch. Officers who command successfully in two organizations from two different branches — maneuver and logistics, fires and intelligence, etc. — are those most suited to command battalions and brigades. The pathway to high command should be reserved for officers who demonstrate a facility with a variety of tools, both lethal and nonlethal. While there would still be a significant need for specialized officers, the surest pathway to high command ought to lie open to the adaptive generalist over the narrow specialist.

To win the Long War, the Army must embrace the combined-arms battalion (CAB) as the basic building block for tactical operations and develop a flatter organizational structure. The development of modular brigade combat teams is a step in the right direction but does not go far enough. The current organization is too hierarchical and too specialized to operate most effectively in the Long War.

During the Plains Indian Wars, many of the tribes opposing America’s westward expansion adopted decentralized hit-and-run tactics to terrorize settlers. In response to these threats, the U.S. Cavalry abandoned the large-scale tactics of the Civil War in favor of small-unit operations. Cavalry troops and squadrons conducted area security operations to protect settlers dispersed over wide areas of the frontier. Cavalry squadrons were combined-arms formations that contained intelligence collectors and cultural advisers (then called scouts) as well as maneuver forces and an organic indirect fires capability. This decentralized approach was necessary to ensure that these organizations possessed the tools they needed to bring security to the frontier.

Again, I don't fault Captain Hammonds. I fault a system that puts him in a place at night that is vulnerable. He and his unit should be integrated with an Afghan Army unit that can cross the border with the cooperation of the Pakistani forces and attack and surround any Taliban unit it finds. Whatever cultural differences exist, it's in the best interests of the Afghans and the Pakistanis to set aside their differences and work together. If it starts with a dozen of each at a time, fair enough. But we should be constructing small, rapid movement units that take parts of each entity and fuses them into something that we haven't seen yet. This force should be capable of fighting and sustaining itself for short periods of time and it should be able to break contact and move where it needs to move. It should feature a creative implementation of fast movement and ambush tactics. It should be a force large enough to be effective but small enough to emplace itself anywhere it wants and catch any insurgent Taliban movements off guard.

Instead of reliable Afghan and Pakistani counterparts, Captain Hammonds deals with a shortage of US troops, an Afghan Army mutiny, and Pakistani corruption:

In the latest operation, in the Kowchun Valley just north of Paktika, Hammonds's company staked out a position above a narrow streambed that snakes through a gorge into North Waziristan, the scene of dozens of firefights between U.S. troops and the Taliban. From his base, Hammonds can see for miles into Pakistan. Haqqani "is extremely upset and can't get anything through," said Fenzel, citing U.S. intelligence.

But because of a shortage of U.S. troops, Hammonds's company can stay in the area only for several weeks. He doubts that Afghan and Pakistani soldiers will be able to control the route once he leaves.

"You're in the middle of an ANA mutiny," Hammonds said one afternoon, referring to the Afghan National Army, as Afghan soldiers from the 203rd Battalion piled into pickup trucks and quit the camp. The Afghans left after learning that the operation, originally to last nine days, would continue for weeks. The exodus underscored Hammonds's belief that Afghan army units cannot guard the border because they rotate every three to six months and they lack enough local knowledge. "The key to securing the border is to remove the ANA completely," he said.

Instead, Hammonds favors the Afghan border police, but eastern Paktika now has only 66 percent of its 857 authorized border police officers and, until December, they were led by a corrupt commander who colluded with the Taliban.

A greater frustration, he and other U.S. troops said, is that they cannot trust their Pakistani counterparts. "The Pakistan military is corrupt and lets people come through," Hammonds said. Pakistani forces reportedly told insurgents the location of his observation post, and when U.S. troops in a firefight call the Pakistani military for help, he said, "they never answer the phone."

Criticizing the situation that this officer is put into means I'm criticizing the strategic lack of vision and not what this officer goes through on the ground. These men are tired, cold, hungry for good food and doing work that most Americans--myself included--couldn't do and wouldn't do for all of the money in the world. These are far better people than we realize and deserve way more than we're capable of giving them. They don't want yellow ribbon magnets, lapel pin wearing loudmouths, or platitudes. Shut the fuck up and appreciate what they do.

Captain Hammonds should be paired up with an Afghan Army officer and loyal troops who can fight, a Pakistani Army officer and troops that can also fight, and they should combine their efforts to effectively identify, track, chase and kill any Taliban that enter their area of control. If it takes US money to get quality troops, pay it. If it takes concessions, make them. Out of the chaos, use whatever means necessary to solve the fucking problems instead of tolerating indifference, corruption and neglect.

Instead of Captain Hammonds sitting in a bunker waiting for an attack, Captain Hammonds should be waiting in ambush for the Taliban, for as long as necessary, safe in the knowledge that a quick-reaction force can come in with enough firepower to help them out. That doesn't mean parking B-52s overhead. It means his unit is rotating in and out with other units that know what he's going through. When the Taliban cannot move in that area for fear of being ambushed by a combined American/Afghan/Pakistani force that cannot be located or tracked, only then will you take the initiative away from the enemy.

And when they're not doing that, Captain Hammonds should sleep at night in peace and security, in an area protected from Taliban attack. And how do they do that? By making sure the population around them are giving them good intel and alerting them if they see Taliban elements appear in the vicinity.

That's how you make the long war a shorter war.

The Nightowl Newswrap

Childhood's End Arthur C. Clarke, author of over a hundred books, including 2001: A Space Odyssey has died. He was 90 years old. He and the good Dr. Asimov were my constant companions growing up, occupying a special revered spot as far as I was concerned, because they were both working scientists and wrote textbooks, too. Clarke is credited with coming up with the concept of communications satellites - in fact, geosynchronous orbits are commonly called "Clarke's Orbits" after him.

The Dalai Llama is threatening to step down as the head of Tibet's government-in-exile if violence between Chinese soldiers and Tibetan independence protesters does not abate. Speaking at the site of the exile government in Dharamsala, India, he said: "I say to China and the Tibetans – don't commit violence. Whether we like it or not, we have to live together side by side," adding that "if things become out of control then my only option is to completely resign".

Reconciliation talks in Baghdad got underway, but without the main Sunni bloc who are boycotting the meeting, claiming that "Maliki is stonewalling them by failing to meet demands that include the release of security detainees not charged with specific crimes, disbanding Shiite militias and wider inclusion in decision-making on security issues."

A power-sharing deal in Kenya Kenyan lawmakers on Tuesday unanimously approved a power-sharing deal intended to salvaging a country once seen as one of the most stable and prosperous in Africa, but which disintegrated into ethnic bloodletting when both President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga claimed victory in the countries presidential election, and brought a bloody end to decades of peaceful coexistence between disparate ethnic groups in Kenya. Now they face the challenges of healing the nation and rebuilding a tattered economy that was once one of the most promising in Africa.

The oldest, thickest and most resilient ice around the North Pole is melting This was confirmed Tuesday by data collected from NASA satellites. "Thickness is an indicator of long-term health of sea ice, and that's not looking good at the moment," Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center told reporters in a phone interview.

Pakistan's new parliament was seated on Monday The opposition parliament has vowed to restore the judiciary which has been decimated by Musharraf. An inevitable clash between Musharraf and the new parliament is brewing, and some parliamentarians are openly disdainful of the president. "Musharraf has to go. He has no future in this country, at least," said Khawaja Muhammad Asif, a newly elected legislator. "Maybe he has a future in the U.S."

Paterson preempts the press hounds Tuesday was David Paterson's first full day on the job as governor of New York, and he called a press conference and dropped a bombshell or three. He admitted openly and freely that he and his wife had both engaged in extramarital affairs, but had worked through their marital problems and had been faithful in recent years. One of the women he admitted to having had a relationship with is a state employee and a member of the staff that Paterson "inherited" from the disgraced Spitzer. Which probably prompted the preemptive confession session.

Well knock me over with a feather, the M$M might actually do some follow up! The New York Times is giving a few column inches in tomorrow mornings paper to McCain's foreign policy fuckups in Jordan earlier today, where he repeatedly asserted a connection between (Shi'ite) Iran and (Sunni) al Qaeda. Karen Finney, a spokeswoman for the DNC issued a statement in which McCain's obvious incompetence in foreign policy was underscored and his ties to this failed war and this failed president were reinforced. “After eight years of the Bush administration’s incompetence in Iraq, McCain’s comments don’t give the American people a reason to believe that he can be trusted to offer a clear way forward. Not only is Senator McCain wrong on Iraq once again, but he showed he either doesn’t understand the challenges facing Iraq and the region or is willing to ignore the facts on the ground.”

What creeps me out most about Cheney isn't just that he lies so easily, it's that he believes himself. Talking to soldiers at a sprawling base north of Balad he reasserted the fictitious connection between Iraq and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. "This long-term struggle became urgent on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001. That day we clearly saw that dangers can gather far from our own shores and find us right there at home," he told the soldiers. "So the United States made a decision: to hunt down the evil of terrorism and kill it where it grows, to hold the supporters of terror to account and to confront regimes that harbor terrorists and threaten the peace," Cheney said. "Understanding all the dangers of this new era, we have no intention of abandoning our friends or allowing this country of 170,000 square miles to become a staging area for further attacks against Americans."

No Regrets If you had any doubts that Bush is a sociopath with no conscience, he still glibly insists that invading Iraq five years ago was worth what it has cost in lives, treasure and stature.

I think this family would probably disagree with the president and his romantic notions of war.

Hat tip to skippy for the photo.

It sure was Monday

Check it out! Four to six inches of snow blanketed the ground across Greece and draped the olive trees in ghostly white as winter made it's presence known in this usually temperate country. Schools were closed across Athens, villages were cut off, and travel was disrupted. Snow on the Acropolis. Wow.

Pakistanis dealt Musharraf a stinging rebuke on Monday when they elected a whole slate of opposition parliamentarians. It was seen as a repudiation not only of Musharraf but also of the Bush administration, which has backed the regime unwaveringly. American officials will have little choice now but to seek alternative allies from among the new political forces emerging from Mondays voting.

As Tajiks struggle to survive the worst winter the country has seen in at least three decades, the United Nations has issued an urgent appeal for $25 million in emergency aid. Cities are enduring inconsistent water and electricity delivery, and rural areas have been cut off from food supplies. The U.N. estimates that half a million people face food shortages, and at least 260,000 are in need of immediate food assistance.

How's that Surge™ workin' out for ya? Five Iraqi civilians were killed when rockets rained down on an American military installation near the Baghdad airport and an adjoining neighborhood. Two American soldiers and n14 Iraqi civilians, including six children, were injured. Rocket attacks are far from rare, but this one was unusual because it was sustained and focused.

Well, that's it for Monday. This is your nightly open thread. Make the most of it, and I'll see you on the morrow.

37 39 killed in massive suicide attack in Pakistan

At least 37 people, mostly supporters of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's Pakistani Peoples Party, were killed Saturday when an explosives-laden car was driven into the midst of a rally and detonated on the last day of campaigning before Monday's scheduled elections.

The attack took place in Parachinar, in the volatile North-West Frontier where Islamic fundamentalist militants have gained strength in recent months.

The elections scheduled for Monday will take place under a cloud of suspicion after Human Rights Watch released an audiotape last week that they claim catches the countries Attorney General reassuring an unknown party on the other end of the line that massive vote rigging would assure that the elections went Musharraf's way. Ms. Bhutto's widower, Asif Ali Zardari, who assumed leadership of her party after she was slain condemned the attack "with all the spirit of democracy...We still ask people to stay calm because this is again their way of making us lose track and give up the path of democracy," he said. He also promised massive street protest if they suspect the elections are tampered with.

In a televised speech on Saturday, President Musharraf said Pakistan would have a "stable, democratically elected government" which would be used to "ensure a successful fight against terrorism and extremism", and he cautioned against protests if the election process is perceived as less than fair.

While Musharraf is not standing for election Monday - the upcoming vote is for the Parliament, he was 'reelected' to a third term in October - a parliament packed with hostile political opponents could spell trouble for the president and his authority.

Musharraf resigned from the Army last fall after the countries supreme court validated his election. The election Monday is seen as a signal moment in Pakistan's transition from military to civilian rule.

Pakistan goes to the polls on Monday - but is the fix already in?

On Friday Human Rights Watch released a recording that it maintains is of Pakistan's Attorney General, acknowledging that the nations parliamentary elections scheduled for Monday will be "massively rigged."

Human Rights Watch said the recording was made by a journalist during a telephone interview with Attorney General Malik Qayyum. The AG interrupted the interview with the journalist to take a second call, but failed to disconnect the first, thus allowing his end of the second conversation to be overheard and recorded.

The AG interrupted the interview with the journalist to take a second call, but failed to disconnect the first, thus allowing his end of the second conversation to be overheard and recorded.


Human Rights Watch said a journalist made the recording during a telephone interview with Attorney General Malik Qayyum when Qayyum took a second call without disconnecting the first, allowing his end of the second conversation to be overheard and recorded.



The recording was released a day after Pakistani president Pervez Musharref warned the opposition that they must accept the outcome of Monday's elections, and not take to the streets in protest. (Where, pray tell, has this man been???)

"Let there be no doubt that anyone will be allowed to resort to lawlessness in the garb of allegations about rigging in the elections," Musharraf was quoted as telling a seminar of government officials in Islamabad by the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan. "Let this serve as a warning to all those who think they can disturb the peace of the country. They will not be allowed. Do not test the resolve of the government."

"No agitation, anarchy or chaos can be acceptable," he said. "I assure you that the elections will be fair, free, and transparent and peaceful."

Fears of vote-rigging have been fed by polls that show the Pakistani Peoples Party and other opposition parties on the verge of capturing enough seats to toss Musharraf out on his (now un-uniformed) ass for abrogating the nations constitution last year so he could consolidate his power.

Musharraf's standing, and that of the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, also has been hurt by skyrocketing prices, shortages of electricity, gas and wheat, a failure to contain the Islamic insurgency based in the tribal area bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan's support for the Bush administration's fight against al Qaida.

"There have been numerous allegations of irregularities, including arrests and harassment of opposition candidates and party members. There are also allegations that state resources, administration, and state machinery are being used to the advantage of candidates backed by President Pervez Musharraf," Human Rights Watch said in a statement.

Human Rights Watch said it had tried repeatedly to contact Qayyum, a staunch supporter of Musharraf, but had been unable to reach him.

On Thursday Asif Ali Zadari, the widower of slain former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, held a final rally of members of her Pakistani Peoples Party in the same park where his wife gave her first political address three decades ago.
Security was high and reflected an upsurge in suicide attacks that have included attacks on opposition rallies and gatherings. Police sharpshooters took up positions on rooftops and scanned the crowds while commandos dressed in black from head to toe stood among the security personnel who ringed the stage.

In a sign of the times, the stage was set back from the barricades that kept the crowd a safe distance from the stage, and Ms. Bhutto's husband spoke from behind a podium of bulletproof glass and steel.

Without naming Musharraf, Mr. Zardari said that it was time to change the system. "Benazir was a martyr. She believed in you, in the brothers and sisters, and I also believe in you," he proclaimed.
And that's all well and good - so long as the elections are fair.

A Day in the Life of Pakistan

A suicide bomber killed at least 25 27 people, including two police officers and several children; and injured dozens in Charsadda, Pakistan in the turbulent North West Frontier province, an area where Islamist extremists have been battling government forces for control. It was the latest act in a wave of rampant violence that has steadily worsened since Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated on December 27.

The bomber struck at a rally organized by the secular Awami National Party, which opposes Islamist parties for support among the local ethnic Pashtun population. Abdul Waheed, a 22 year old who survived the attack but was seriously burned, said the bomber blew himself up as a member of the party was leading a recitation of verses from the Quran. ''I only heard the blast and cries and then something hit me and I fell down,'' Waheed told The Associated Press from his hospital bed in Peshawar.

All of Pakistan has been a powderkeg since the assassination of Ms. Bhutto, and nowhere have tensions been higher than in the lawless North West Frontier Province, in the border region with Afghanistan where the remnants of Al Qaeda are thought to ave sought and found safe haven after they were allowed to slip away at Tora Bora. Islamic militants in the region have been somewhat successful in battling government forces and challenging government control.

Because of the worsening violence, parliamentary candidates standing in the February 18 elections have shunned large outdoor rallies, opting to campaign in smaller, more intimate settings held inside the walled compounds of party stalwarts. The television footage of the aftereffects of the blast, the bloodstained clothing, overturned chairs, and the scenes of general chaos that littered the grand meeting hall of a party members sprawling private home drove home the point that even these tightly controlled settings are susceptible to attack by determined terrorists.

In spite of the overt danger, 100,000 members of Ms. Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party defiantly gathered in a sports stadium in Thatta as the party resumed its campaigning following the end of the traditional 40 day mourning period following her death. Her widow, Asif Ali Zardari, vowed in an emotional speech to carry forth his murdered wife's mission, and he beseeched the assembled masses to ''give me strength so that we can serve the country.''

''I have the responsibility to save Pakistan,'' Zardari said. ''This is our country and we have to save it.''

A 24 year old laborer who attended the rally said that the reputation of Mr. Zardari was not very good, but that devotion to Benazir compelled many to to attend the rally. ''We will avenge the blood of Benazir. We don't have bombs. We are not terrorists, but we have political power and we will capitalize on this political power to avenge the death of Benazir,'' said another supporter, Haji Jaffar, 75, a retired teacher. The martyring of Ms. Bhutto has strengthened the resolve of her supporters and shored up the strength of her party.

Elsewhere in Pakistan, approximately 1,500 lawyers attempted Saturday to march to the barricaded home of the Chief Justice of the countries Supreme Court, who was suspended from his position last March by Pervez Mushareff last November in an attempt to control the judiciary which opposed his authoritarian rule. As the lawyers attempted to cross the barbed-wire barricade, hundreds of riot police unleashed tear gas and water cannons, topped off with a baton charge. Although there were no reports of serious injury, several lawyers were roughed up. Earlier Saturday, the countries Bar Council announced that the lawyers nationwide will boycott the courts through election day in an attempt to restore the suspended judges.

Insurgencies are becoming entrenched along Afghan-Pakistan border

Radical Islamic fundamentalist militants are bolstering their numbers and expanding their scope of influence in the forbidding terrain of the lawless tribal areas that flank the border on both sides.

From here, they traffic in disarray, violence and chaos over a vast area of both countries. This is the area that the remnants of al Qaeda fled to when they were allowed to escape at Tora Bora. Here they have found fertile soil and they have set about the business of regrouping, recruiting and resurging. The violence and bloodshed are spreading from the border areas to the Pakistani heartland and threatens to destabilize the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan - governments which have allied themselves with the United States and the western allies in those volatile countries.

From McClatchy:

In Afghanistan, U.S. and NATO forces are facing "a classic growing insurgency," Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Friday.

But the U.S. military, stretched thin by the war in Iraq, is hard-pressed to send more than the 3,200 additional Marines the Bush administration is dispatching to Afghanistan. The growing insurgency there is fueling rifts within the NATO alliance as Germany and other nations refuse to allow their troops to participate in offensive operations in Afghanistan. The Afghan army is making progress but still cannot operate independently.

"Make no mistake, NATO is not winning in Afghanistan," warned an Atlantic Council of the United States report last week. The report was directed by retired Marine Corps Gen. James Jones, the former top NATO commander. "What is happening in Afghanistan and beyond its borders can have even greater strategic long-term consequences than the struggle in Iraq." (emphasis added)

The Pakistani army is ill-suited to confront a home-grown insurgency in the tribal areas - it is geared toward fighting a conventional land-war against India. To date the Pakistanis have avoided the George Bush modus operandi of "when the only tool you have is a hammer..." and avoided sending forces to battle the insurgency (using them to chase down al Qaeda has been volatile enough). The military leaders are reluctant to turn their guns on the insurgents because they fear that heavy casualties would prompt schisms within the military along ethnic and sectarian lines and that would destroy the Pakistani armed forces.

All the U.S. and the NATO allies can do is train a few Pakistani troops because U.S. military action would spark outrage among the populace, already on the verge of boiling over with anti-U.S. and anti-government fueled outrage.

But it gets better - the threat of terrorists trained and indoctrinated in the tribal areas directed at Afghan, Pakistani and even western targets is greater than it has ever been.

"The Taliban in Afghanistan now control more of the country than at any time since 2001, and their confederates in the tribal areas of Pakistan are expanding their operations almost day by day. While our attention has been diverted by Iraq, we've overlooked a potentially far more serious threat to the security of all Americans," Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden, D-Del., told McClatchy.

There's no hard evidence of direct collusion between the Afghan Taliban and a new Pakistani Taliban alliance, both of which are made up mostly of Pashtun tribesmen, who dominate the region of soaring mountains and rugged deserts that span the frontier. Indeed, the Afghan Taliban deny links with the Pakistani insurgents.

But the ties among the Pashtuns are personal, historic, ethnic and ideological, and experts worry that the region faces a growing jihadi movement that's aided by al Qaida with Arab and Central Asian fighters, coordination, money and motivation.

"You see some indication that there is a blurring of the lines and some associations that are not helpful," said a senior U.S. defense official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Husain Haqqani, a political scientist and former aide to the late Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto said that the group "have become a seamless whole." The common thread that unites them all is that the groups calling themselves "Taliban" on either side of the border are descended from the Mujahadeen, the Islamic guerrillas that fought the Soviets in Afghanistan from 1979-89. Back then, they were the standard-bearers for the west and they battled the Soviets with arms that were supplied by the United States, Saudi Arabia and Britain and flowed through Pakistan.

One point enjoys widespread support: The Bush administration bears much of the blame for the current FUBAR security situation in the least stable nuclear nation on earth.

First, in Bush's idiotic invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan was left to twist in the wind after the focus changed and left that poor, beleaguered nation unsecured after the 2001 invasion. Then the Bush administration turned the screws on Pervez Musharraf to send troops into the tribal areas to hunt down al Qaeda operatives who had escaped there from Tora Bora. The presence of these troops outraged the tribes, and cemented opposition with heavy-handed tactics and high civilian casualties. While this was going on, little heed was paid to the Taliban, and their support among a pissed-off populace took root. Growth in support exploded after Musharraf ordered a strike against The Red Mosque last summer. That raid killed scores of people.

The Taliban Movement of Pakistan, which was only established in December of 2007, has already extended it's reach into all seven tribal agencies, as well as the North West Frontier Province.

Taliban-sponsored violence has shaken the provincial capital Peshawar to it's very foundation. It has killed hundreds of security forces personnel. Ammunition deliveries have been hijacked, major thoroughfares have been seized, and for the first time ever, a major city has been cut off from the rest of the country by militants.

Across the border in Afghanistan, the Taliban has expanded the territory under their control and now moves around freely in spite of heavy combat losses last year with NATO troops. "The number of districts in which the Taliban operate exploded last year," said John McCreary, a former senior intelligence analyst with the Joint Chiefs of Staff who's now with the private contractor dNovus RDI. "This is the first year they have managed to sustain over 100 attacks per month for the whole year since they started to climb back. One hundred attacks per month used to be surge figure. Now it's the new norm."

Stop With the Endless Bullshit

There are so many "conflicting" stories that are swirling around the assassination yesterday of Benazir Bhutto that it is little wonder that Pakistan is experiencing widespread unrest.

Just a sampling:

-Benazir Bhutto died from hitting her car's sunroof; no bullet or shrapnel found in her, Pakistan’s Interior Ministry says.
[breaking news headline, CNN.com]

-Bhutto was killed after a suicide attacker shot at her and then blew himself up as she left a rally, police and witnesses said. Authorities initially said she died from bullet wounds, but Dr. Mussadiq Khan, a surgeon who treated her, said Friday that she died from shrapnel that hit her on the right side of the skull.
Bhutto had no heart beat or pulse when she arrived at the hospital and doctors failed to resuscitate her, he said.
Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema said he saw the medical report, and it, too, said she died from a shrapnel wound and was not shot. "No bullet was found in her body," he said.
Soomro, the prime minister, told the Cabinet on Friday that Bhutto's husband did not allow an autopsy, according to a government statement.
[From the Huffington Post]

-It was initially reported that Bhutto, 54, was killed by the bullets of an assassin who blew himself up after firing the shots following a public rally in Rawalpindi on Thursday.
But government officials said Friday that a medical report confirmed that Bhutto was killed by shrapnel from the blast -- from which at least 28 more people died and at least 100 were wounded.
The shrapnel hit the right side of her skull, Interior Ministry spokesman Brigadier Javed Iqbal Cheema said. The bomber did shoot at Bhutto with a pistol, but she had no bullet injury.
[News story, CNN.com]

-Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, whose funeral was held today, died from injuries she suffered when hitting her vehicle's sunroof, it has been claimed.
Interior Ministry spokesman said no bullets or shrapnel were found in her body.
It had previously been announced Ms Bhutto died as a result of being hit in the neck and chest by shots fired by an assassin.
The Ministry has also blamed al Qaeda and the Taliban for the 54-year-old's death..
It said its agents had intercepted an al Qaeda phone call about the killing.
It says it also has evidence the international terror group is trying to "destabilise" Pakistan.
[Breaking News from Sky News]

You're going to have to excuse me if I don't believe a Goddamned thing about what happened--it's just not possible for so many people to get something like this so completely and utterly wrong without there being, at least at some level, a behind-the-scenes conspiracy being run by incompetents who can't get their stories straight.

UPDATE: Josh Marshall has also picked up on this, and is asking for medical people to weigh in. Given that Bhutto was quickly buried without autopsy (for religious reasons, most likely), I don't know if it is possible to figure anything out from the scant evidence that exists.

I do know one thing--I'm not buying any of the bullshit being spewed by the Pakistani government, and I doubt anyone is ever going to be able to figure out what really happened.

UPDATE 2: Bhutto associate calls out Pakistani regime--

Brigadier Javed Cheema, a ministry spokesman, said Miss Bhutto had died from a head wound she sustained when she smashed against the sunroof's lever as she tried to shelter inside the car.

"The lever struck near her right ear and fractured her skull," Mr Cheema said.

But the explanation was ridiculed by Farooq Naik, Miss Bhutto's top lawyer and a senior official in her Pakistan People's Party.

"It is baseless. It is a pack of lies," he said.

"Two bullets hit her, one in the abdomen and one in the head. It was a serious security lapse."

How about this scenario--Bhutto was pronounced dead at the hospital because she had been killed in the ambulance on the way there by a severe blow to the head...?

Huckabee, Huckabee, Huckabee

Here's an example of how not to view what happened today, courtesy of the former governor of Arkansas:

From CBS News' Nancy Cordes:

ORLANDO, FLA. -- With about 150 supporters crowded around a podium set up on the tarmac of Orlando Executive airport (and about 20 Ron Paul supporters waving signs outside) Mike Huckabee strode out to the strains of “Right Now” by Van Halen and immediately addressed the Bhutto situation, expressing “our sincere concern and apologies for what has happened in Pakistan.”

He said the assassination is a reminder that here in the US, we are lucky to vote “not with bullets but with ballots,” and said “I guess we are sometimes lulled into failing to appreciate the magnitude” of the democratic process.

After moving onto other subjects in his rally (more on that in a moment) he took questions from the press. I asked him what he would do right now if he were President to tackle the situation. He avoided taking a strong policy position, saying he would offer sincere sympathies to the people of Pakistan, and monitor who’s behind it. When asked what he thinks of the Musharraf government and how it has handled the security situation and aid from the US, he replied, “I think today is not the best day to comment on what the Musharraf government should or shouldn’t have done” though “we need a full accounting of that money.” He was also asked if today’s news highlights why the next President needs to have foreign policy, which he lacks. His reponse: “I think it’s more important to have the right principles for the American people.”

He made a bad choice of words when saying the U.S. needs to consider “what impact does it have on whether or not there’s going to be martial law continuing in Pakistan.” He should have said whether or not martial law will be reinstated – it was lifted nearly two weeks ago. A minor slip, maybe, but not a subject he wants to mess up on when he is already considered weak in the area of foreign policy.

While it is odd to read someone's "suggestion" for what Huckabee should have said, all you can do is wince and try not to think about what an election eight years from now would be like, given the continuing downward spiral of media coverage in this country.

Van Halen? Sammy Hagar-era Van Halen is his theme song? What the fuck?

Bhutto Assassinated

This is possibly the last known photograph of Bhutto before she was killed today.

FROM CNN:

Former Pakistan government spokesman Tariq Azim Khan said while it appeared Bhutto was shot, it was unclear if the bullet wounds to her head and neck were caused by a shooting or if it was shrapnel from the bomb.

Bhutto's husband issued a statement from his home in Dubai saying, "All I can say is we're devastated, it's a total shock."

The number of wounded was not immediately known. However, video of the scene showed ambulances lined up to take many to hospitals.

The attack came just hours after four supporters of former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif died when members of another political party opened fire on them at a rally near the Islamabad airport Thursday, Pakistan police said.

Several other members of Sharif's party were wounded, police said.

Bhutto, who led Paksitan from 1988 to 1990 and was the first female prime minister of any Islamic nation, was participating in the parliamentary election set for January 8, hoping for a third term.

A terror attack targeting her motorcade in Karachi killed 136 people on the day she returned to Pakistan after eight years of self-imposed exile. View timeline. »

CNN's Mohsin Naqvi, who was at the scene of both bombings, said Thursday's blast was not as powerful as that October attack.

Thursday's attacks come less than two weeks after Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf lifted an emergency declaration he said was necessary to secure his country from terrorists.

Bhutto had been critical of what she believed was a lack of effort by Musharraf's government to protect her.

Martyred

The Islamist-extremist bastards got her.

The Associated Press is reporting that Benazir Bhutto has been murdered.

After speaking at a rally in Rawalpindi, Pakistan an attacker fired a weapon at her as she was leaving the rally, then blew himself up, killing 20 others and his target - the uppity woman who didn't know her place.

"At 6:16 p.m. she expired," said Wasif Ali Khan, a member of Bhutto's party who was at Rawalpindi General Hospital, where she was taken after the explosion.

A senior military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment, confirmed that Bhutto had died.

Updates will follow as details emerge, but my fear is that the political volcano that is Pakistan will erupt into violence now.

Benazir Bhutto returns from exile, Taliban-led assassination attempt kills over 100 supporters

The Aftermath

More than 100 people perished late Thursday as bombs detonated along the parade route as former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto returned to her home city of Karachi after eight years in exile.
Hundreds of thousands of jubilant Pakistanis lined the streets and danced atop cars as her entourage passed.

Then...Chaos erupted.

...After an initial small explosion, a huge blast came just feet from the front of the truck carrying Ms. Bhutto during a procession through Karachi. The blast shattered windows in her vehicle, The A.P. said.

Televised views of the scene showed bodies in the nighttime city streets, crowds running through traffic that is at a standstill and the noises of sirens and people screaming.

Before the explosions, hundreds of thousands of supporters lined the streets, dancing on bus roofs, waving banners and surging forward for a glimpse of their leader as she inched her way through the city atop a bullet-proof truck.

The huge and enthusiastic turnout earlier on Thursday made it an emotional homecoming for Ms. Bhutto, who was twice turned out of office and has lived in self-imposed exile. It was also a vindication for her politically that after leading two short-lived governments and being accused together with her husband of corruption and mismanagement, she could still command fervent support on the streets

The throngs that greeted Ms. Bhutto on Thursday were larger than those that lined the streets in 1986 when she returned from exile the first time, to face politically - and prevail over - Muhammed Zia-al-Huq, the General who had deposed her fathers government and installed martial law for the third time in Pakistan's short history as an independent nation.

That return from exile preceded Ms. Bhutto's historic rise to power. She was the first woman in the Muslim world to be elected Prime Minister and lead a nation.

Before the bombings, Ms. Bhutto looked out on the teeming crowds of mostly working class Pakistanis. Many were unemployed young men, a great many of whom had traveled hundreds of kilometers and camped along the roadside leading to the airport, anxiously awaiting her arrival.

In words that later seemed prescient, she spoke strongly against terrorism and the need to save Pakistan from extremism through democracy. “The time has come for democracy,” she said. “If we want to save Pakistan, we have to have democracy.”

She has been outspoken against militants and Al Qaeda and repeated the same comments as she flew in. “The terrorists are trying to take over my country and we have to stop them,” she said.

The New York Times is now pegging the death toll at 115 and counting, and the Taliban, allied with (the real) al Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the bombing and assassination attempt against Ms. Bhutto, who is determined to take a hard line against their thuggery and extremism.