Something is rotten in Anbar

Recently we noticed that violence in Anbar was on the upswing and Americans in the province had started taking casualties again, after several restive months.

I have been dreading this day, but I have also known it was coming. It simply stood to reason. As a last-ditch effort, a deal was made with the devil, in spite of the smell of sulfur hanging in the air to serve as a warning, and arms and ammo began to flow to our newly-rented allies.

Then tonight I saw the news on CNN that a suicide bomber struck a funeral for a community leader in Abu Ghraib (the village, not the prison) killing at least 22 and wounding forty more. (No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, so speculating at this point would amount to little more than mental masturbation, and that and four bucks will get you a coffee at Starbucks.

I am afraid that this return to violence is an ominous portent of things to come.

I hope I'm wrong, but my track record on these issues doesn't give me a bit of reason to think I would suddenly stop being right at this point in time.

Quagmire

Laying the PR groundwork for his upcoming congressional testimony on the status of Iraq, the Man-God Petraeus, he of the rank of General, is the subject of a Washington Post article today. In it, he seems to be dialing back expectations, lowering the bar, stepping off from the desperate insistence displayed by some that the "Surge™ worked spectacularly!" He seems almost reality-based, saying that "no one" in the U.S. and Iraqi governments "feels that there has been sufficient progress by any means in the area of national reconciliation," nor has the Iraqi government successfully restored delivery of basic public services.

While violence has declined dramatically since late 2006, when thousands of Iraqis were being killed each month, U.S. military data show that attacks on U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians have leveled off or risen slightly in the early part of 2008. "I don't see an enormous uptick projected right now," Petraeus said, speaking in his windowless office in the U.S. Embassy, which is housed in Saddam Hussein's former Republican Palace. "What you have seen is some sensational attacks, there's no question about that."

Petraeus said several factors may account for the recent violence, including increased U.S. and Iraqi operations against insurgents in the northern city of Mosul -- which has lately become one of Iraq's most dangerous -- and insurgent efforts to reestablish some of their havens in Baghdad. And Petraeus said U.S. commanders could not discount the possibility that insurgents "know the April testimony is coming up."

The additional forces sent to Iraq last year have begun to depart and will be gone by midsummer, leaving in place a baseline U.S. presence of about 130,000 troops. Petraeus said it would increasingly fall to Iraqi security forces and neighborhood patrols funded by the United States to help keep violence down.

Petraeus also said the United States would temporarily freeze further reductions in its troop presence to allow for a "period of consolidation and evaluation after reducing our ground combat forces by over a quarter." He said he would discuss the length and timing of what the military terms an "operational pause" during his testimony. (emphasis added)

Petraeus credited both the mainly Sunni neighborhood patrols known as the Awakening and a cease-fire called by Shiite cleric and militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr with helping to bring down violence. The Awakening fighters include former insurgents who say they have turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq, a largely homegrown Sunni group that Petraeus said is in communication with al-Qaeda leaders abroad. The United States is now paying 88,000 members of the Awakening $300 a month to take part in the neighborhood patrols.

Sadr issued his cease-fire in August 2007 and renewed it last month in an attempt to increase his control over his Mahdi Army militia and expel renegade fighters. U.S. military commanders who once saw Sadr and his forces as enemies now speak deferentially of the cleric, who has maintained his insistence that the U.S. occupation must end.

Of course, the Sunni Awakening Council members have been standing down and yesterday a contingent of the Mahdi Army shelled the piss out of the U.S. base at Kut. Baghdad is a pressure cooker with the lid held on by the American troop presence, and Basra is a potboiler. The last of the Surge™ brigades will leave this summer, and the situation will probably finish reverting to the one we saw in 2006 - the only thing that will have been accomplished will be that the can was successfully kicked down the road to the next president. Five will get you ten that aWol isn't the only one who leaves his office in January. I would bet cash money that Petraeus already has his retirement papers are already filled out.

Anbar Aflame

Just days ago, the White House made much hay out of an alliance with the shadiest sheik of them all, Abu Risha, who could not even conceal his contempt for the vacuous moron for the cameras.

Today, Abu Risha is dead, killed by a powerful IED that destroyed his armored SUV as he left his compound. Four body guards were also killed by the blast. No group has yet laid claim to the attack.

Before the keening and wailing starts, Abu Risha was a thug and a highway bandit, and a list of people who would have wanted him dead would not be a short one. He was unpopular even among other Sunnis, having a reputation for corruption and pettiness that was near unrivaled (making him an ideal ally for aWol, when one thinks about it that way...) He was building a militia that was loyal not to the government, but to him. Reliance on people like him is why the so-called "Anbar Awakening" is pure unadulterated bullshit.

In President George W. Bush's trip last week to Iraq, he visited Anbar rather than Baghdad and forcefully directed attention at the security gains the growing alliance between American and tribal forces had brought. Sheik Abdul Sattar was among the tribal leaders who met with him Sept. 3 at Al Asad Air Base in Anbar, the AP reported. He was the latest and most significant of sheiks leading that effort to be killed, and his death comes as Bush prepares to discuss his Iraq strategy in a nationwide address this evening.

Recently the council had begun to reach out to other tribes to bring them into working with the American and Iraqi government, and had met recently with southern Shia tribes.

His death could be a significant setback for American efforts to work more closely with local tribes against Al Qaeda.

The authorities imposed a state of emergency in Anbar Province following his assassination, police officials said. At least one other person escorting him was also killed in the explosion.

"This action makes a crack and makes it a mess for all those who wanted to be aligned with him," Salim al-Jubori, a spokesman for the largest Sunni Arab block in the Iraqi Parliament, said. "I believe there are other leaders who will take this on, but this is not easy."

Word of the attack comes just hours before the Resident addresses the nation tonight, in a last-ditch effort to gain support for his failed Iraqi adventure, that has thus far cost nearly a trillion dollars and is closing in on 3800 American lives.