Saturday, February 9, 2008

Obama Runs the Table; Huckabee Snookers McCain

Barack Obama showed the world - and more than a few doubters - today that his MO ain't faux by making a clean sweep of the nominating contest in three states - Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington - and in all three he won by wide, decisive margins. In Nebraska and Washington, he won by a 2-to-1 margin over Senator Clinton, and in Louisiana, with 2/3 of precincts reporting and the vote still being tallied, he was leading 53% to 39%, and projected to win. Every state saw Democrats turning out in numbers that were roughly double the 2004 turnout.

"Today, voters from the West Coast to the Gulf Coast to the heart of America stood up to say 'yes we can'" told a cheering crowd of Democrats at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Richmond, Va. "The stakes are too high and the challenges are too great to play the same old Washington game with the same old Washington players and expect a different result," he told the crowd of loyal Democrats. "People want to turn the page. They want to write a new chapter in American history."

With 158 delegates at stake, and Obama winning so decisively, he certainly narrowed the delegate gap. Going into todays contests, Obama narrowed the lead held by Hillary to a less-than-100 spread, going into a week where he enjoys strong support in states that go to the polls over the next few days. Maine will hold caucuses on Sunday, with 24 Democratic delegates at stake. Tuesday, it's the Potomac Primary, with Washington D.C., Maryland and Virginia holding primaries. It is conceivable that Obama, with decisive victories in two or more of those states on Tuesday, could pull even in the delegate count.

On the Republican side, McCain was bitch-slapped by Kansans who went for Huckabee by a humiliating 60% to 24%. Here is what I want to see in Kansas: The county numbers. I want to see how Leavenworth, Geary, Riley and Sedgewick counties voted, and how overall Democratic votes stack up against overall Republican numbers. Those are the four counties that are home to the states three major military installations - Forts Leavenworth and Riley, and McConnell Air Force Base. In 2006 the military vote in the KS-02 (both of the Army Forts are in the 02) didn't turn out for the incumbent conservative Republican, former Olympian Jim Ryun, and the district is now represented by Democrat Nancy Boyda. I keep telling anyone who will listen that the service personnel most likely to vote are the ones most likely to have families - and when they have kids in school, they vote local, not absentee back home.

If Huckabee beat McCain in those counties, he has to reassess his level of support among military personnel. I don't think it is half as strong as he has tried to portray it to the media and the masses, but the numbers will tell the tale.

McCain had a rough day - just two days after he managed to muscle aside Mitt and his millions, he was humiliated in Kansas and it was followed up with additional repudiations in Louisiana and Washington, with Huckabee leading in both states.

I find the psychology of Huckabee and his voters fascinating. There is no way he can win the nomination. He trails by more than 500 delegates and he has been, for all intents and purposes, mathematically eliminated. Yet he forges on, and his supporters continue to vote in droves, and probably in defiance, of the McCain candidacy. Conservatives really, really hate him. Couple that vehement hatred with the uncomfortable feeling that it's 1996 all over again, this time with a bad candidate.

A Day in the Life of Pakistan

A suicide bomber killed at least 25 27 people, including two police officers and several children; and injured dozens in Charsadda, Pakistan in the turbulent North West Frontier province, an area where Islamist extremists have been battling government forces for control. It was the latest act in a wave of rampant violence that has steadily worsened since Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated on December 27.

The bomber struck at a rally organized by the secular Awami National Party, which opposes Islamist parties for support among the local ethnic Pashtun population. Abdul Waheed, a 22 year old who survived the attack but was seriously burned, said the bomber blew himself up as a member of the party was leading a recitation of verses from the Quran. ''I only heard the blast and cries and then something hit me and I fell down,'' Waheed told The Associated Press from his hospital bed in Peshawar.

All of Pakistan has been a powderkeg since the assassination of Ms. Bhutto, and nowhere have tensions been higher than in the lawless North West Frontier Province, in the border region with Afghanistan where the remnants of Al Qaeda are thought to ave sought and found safe haven after they were allowed to slip away at Tora Bora. Islamic militants in the region have been somewhat successful in battling government forces and challenging government control.

Because of the worsening violence, parliamentary candidates standing in the February 18 elections have shunned large outdoor rallies, opting to campaign in smaller, more intimate settings held inside the walled compounds of party stalwarts. The television footage of the aftereffects of the blast, the bloodstained clothing, overturned chairs, and the scenes of general chaos that littered the grand meeting hall of a party members sprawling private home drove home the point that even these tightly controlled settings are susceptible to attack by determined terrorists.

In spite of the overt danger, 100,000 members of Ms. Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party defiantly gathered in a sports stadium in Thatta as the party resumed its campaigning following the end of the traditional 40 day mourning period following her death. Her widow, Asif Ali Zardari, vowed in an emotional speech to carry forth his murdered wife's mission, and he beseeched the assembled masses to ''give me strength so that we can serve the country.''

''I have the responsibility to save Pakistan,'' Zardari said. ''This is our country and we have to save it.''

A 24 year old laborer who attended the rally said that the reputation of Mr. Zardari was not very good, but that devotion to Benazir compelled many to to attend the rally. ''We will avenge the blood of Benazir. We don't have bombs. We are not terrorists, but we have political power and we will capitalize on this political power to avenge the death of Benazir,'' said another supporter, Haji Jaffar, 75, a retired teacher. The martyring of Ms. Bhutto has strengthened the resolve of her supporters and shored up the strength of her party.

Elsewhere in Pakistan, approximately 1,500 lawyers attempted Saturday to march to the barricaded home of the Chief Justice of the countries Supreme Court, who was suspended from his position last March by Pervez Mushareff last November in an attempt to control the judiciary which opposed his authoritarian rule. As the lawyers attempted to cross the barbed-wire barricade, hundreds of riot police unleashed tear gas and water cannons, topped off with a baton charge. Although there were no reports of serious injury, several lawyers were roughed up. Earlier Saturday, the countries Bar Council announced that the lawyers nationwide will boycott the courts through election day in an attempt to restore the suspended judges.

Saturday Housekeeping Notes

It's Saturday, and I have a list of stuff to do as long as my arm.

Blogging is prominent on that list, but it is also the thing that is going to take the most time and attention, so I am going to hustle off for a bit, and return with undivided attention later this afternoon.

What is on my prep table, you might ask? Spreading violence in Pakistan, American-armed and funded Sunni militias in Diyala on strike, Putin ramping up a new Arms race, and Phillip Roth, who has some pretty bold things to say about the war criminal thug currently trying - and failing miserably - to pass himself off as an American president.

Back this evening - with attitude, focused anger and posts on anything Pale Rider doesn't tackle first. But it is Saturday, and we both have families and homes.

Catblogging Update:

Friday catblogging will return next week. I can't find the disc that will let me download my pictures from the camera. I have to go to the basement - but I have no illusions - a lot of people contributed an amount equal to a bag of premium cat food. I can read between the lines. The cats are fine and will return next week.

Subscription Drive Update:

I would never presume to classify a fundraiser so successful as the one I just had a couple of weeks ago as ever having a downside - thank you each and every one from the bottom of my grateful, thankful, bursting heart - but with all those generous donations, very few people took the subscription challenge - I asked for 20 subscribers at $5.00 per month, and in return, I would take down the Google Ads.

We didn't get close, so I am doing something that, if I were Hillary Clinton, would be derisively classified as "triangulating." I have taken down the top banner ad as a thank you to those who have subscribed, and to provide incentive for new subscribers. And as soon as five more people make that pledge, I will take down the one between the first two posts. And as always, once subscribers reach the magic number of 20, I will pull 'em all down.