Attack on the US Consulate in Turkey

Despite relocating the consulate to another location and heavily fortifying it, the US Consulate in Istanbul was tested today in a fierce gunbattle:

Unidentified gunmen opened fire on Turkish security guards outside the United States Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, on Wednesday and at least three officers were killed, the governor of Istanbul said.

Governor Muammer Guler, quoted by Reuters, said one of the policemen died at the scene after a 15-minute gun battle.

Three attackers were killed and others were being sought, the semi-official Anatolian news agency said.

Crowds and police milled around the 15-foot high high walls sheltering the American compound and police cordoned off the area. A helicopter was seen hovering above. Television footage showed one body lying on the ground, but news reports from Istanbul said up to six people may have died.

American officials said no employees or officials at the consulate had been killed.

Fundamentalism continues to march through Turkey, and that's another reason why we decry the lack of a functioning State Department.

--WS

Will Bush and McCain call the Israelis "Appeasers?"

Don't hold your breath...

Israel confirmed Wednesday that it is holding indirect peace talks with Syria mediated by Turkey.

The statement from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was the first official Israeli admission of the contacts.

Wednesday's statement said the sides "have declared their intent to conduct these talks in good faith and openly." The statement says the goal is "to reach a comprehensive peace agreement."

There have been reports in recent months of new Israeli-Syrian contacts through Turkey. Syria wants Israel to return the Golan Heights, which it captured in the 1967 Mideast war.

U.S.-mediated peace talks between the two countries broke down in 2000 because of disagreements over the extent of an Israeli withdrawal.

Due to their lack of historical context or actual knowledge of diplomacy, it is highly unlikely that the Bush Administration will know how to react to this. The Israelis will not be denounced as appeasers, for it is likely that the Israelis took Bush aside last week and casually told him of their own "appeasement" of their sworn enemy. And, please note that the US Secretary of State was probably kept, deliberately, out of the loop and out of the room. I say probably, but I would hasten to add "definitely."

You're Kidding, Right?

It's like we're all on acid...everything is distorted and messed up...nothing makes any sense...and the neocons keep telling everyone how things really aren't:

`Enormous Credibility'
``He's got enormous credibility there, and is able to say to them in words of one syllable that they need to get their act together,'' John Bolton, the former UN ambassador, said.

Cheney plans to travel throughout the country. Among the topics on his agenda are pushing Iraqi leaders to pass an oil law that would help encourage international energy companies to invest in production, said a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the trip.

The U.S. is in the process of pulling five of 20 combat brigades out of Iraq, totaling about 20,000 soldiers. Petraeus has said he wants to take time to assess security after the withdrawal ends in mid-July.

At least 3,978 U.S. military personnel have died in Iraq and another 29,395 have been wounded, according to Department of Defense figures.

A majority of the U.S. public, 53 percent, said a victory in Iraq isn't possible, according to a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll conducted March 7-10. Fifty-two percent said most troops should be withdrawn by 2009.

Enormous credibility? Conduct diplomacy with one-syllable words?

Fuck if I can't figure out what's going on. You'd have to be on acid to believe this shit.

Speaking of being on acid:

CNN’s Kyra Phillips speaks to some Iraqi soldiers about the U.S. presidential election and democracy in Iraq. While they spoke enthusiastically about the American soldiers teaching them discipline and how to effectively combat their enemies in Iraq, the soldiers were less effusive in their praise for those managing the war and their plans for bringing about democracy. Phillips tried in vain to locate any McCain supporters among the group.

“Just to be perfectly clear here, I did ask them are you following any of the republican candidates?…Do you want to talk about John McCain? Within that whole group, not one wanted a republican in the US presidential seat. They were all for a democrat. They were all for that type of change because they said they were living a republican war.”

Wow! CNN found a whole bunch of "fake troops" who hate America! Sarcasm intended.

The Nightowl Newswrap

Funniest headline I've seen all week....Excuse Me? Is This the Right Way to Wank?

The government of Belarus has told the U.S. Ambassador to leave the country, and recalled it's own ambassador from Washington. A spokesman for the State Department said that the US ambassador had not been formally expelled, and would remain in Minsk while the situation is reviewed. The move comes in the wake of the US levying economic sanctions against Belneftekhim, Belarus' oil monopoly.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lashed out after charges were made suggesting that Turkey ended its ground offensive against the terrorists of the PKK who find safe haven in Iraqi Kurdistan, bowing to pressure from the US. Erdoğan threatened to step down from his post if anyone can prove the allegations true.

Anyone who really gives a damn about the Israeli-Palestinian peace process needs to go read this Op-Ed by Maria Appokova right now. For the U.S. administration, a peace agreement in the Middle East is a matter of principle. It has become part of its strategy in the global struggle against terrorism in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. This issue is as important as the overthrow of former President Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. Bush simply cannot leave his office without drawing a line under the main project of his whole presidency...and the suffering of others be damned.

The British are coming! The British are coming! Some 200 British Army and Royal Marine officers have descended on Holton in northeast Kansas to take part in joint counterinsurgency training with their American counterparts. The joint training has taken pace for four years now. This is the second year it has been conducted in Holton.

Australian authorities are bracing for a flood of cheap heroin from Afghanistan after opium production rose approximately 34% last year according to a UN survey. Addiction treatment professionals are already reporting an increase in Afghan "brown tar" heroin in Australian cities. As is always the case, purity is increasing, prices are decreasing and deaths by overdose are on the rise. Just another unintended consequence of Bush foreign policy.

After 28 centuries, the patent is expired (I should probably issue an insensitivity warning before I go on, so consider it done...) The Balkan Republic of Macedonia wants to join NATO, and Greece is promising to veto their membership bid if the country doesn't change it's name, and Macedonia has taken out full-page ads in key newspapers to plead their case. In 1995, the Greek government and representatives of the fledgling Macedonian republic signed an agreement in which the republic of Macedonia added a constitutional amendment that stipulated the nation made no claim to the region of Greece know as Macedon, or Macedonia. The nation also changed it's flag at the request of Athens. When Yugoslavia disintegrated in the 1990's, Greece allowed the nation to join the UN under the acronym FYROM (Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia) but will not let the nation into NATO using it. Now, I can read a map, and there is plenty going on in that part of the world to get excited about before a nation like Greece gets too worried about a tiny nation like Macedonia usurping it's territory. Get real.

It's time to debate and redefine roles and missions, whether the turf-protectors at the Pentagon want to or not. A new report (.pdf alert) from the House Armed Services Committee "hopes to jump-start the arduous process of breaking down those sorts of walls — not only within the Pentagon, still operating largely under a Cold War construct that is grappling with new concepts such as cyber-warfare, but in an intelligence community that is dealing with the complexities of tracking shadowy terrorists around the world, and a State Department that is shifting gears from “genteel diplomacy” to demanding volunteers for provincial reconstruction teams." I remember 1986, when Goldwater-Nichols was supposed to be the end of western civilizations if interoperability was even worked toward. Yet even after it was achieved, life went on. New recruits enlisted, new commissions were granted, children were born, billets were assigned, careers progressed, retirements were accepted and pensions were granted, and now interoperability is SOP. In short...We got over it. And todays Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Marines will as well.

Climate Change is affecting Antarctica The calving of a gigantic iceberg - 34 KM by 20 KM - from the Pine Island Glacier last summer, while impressive, is becoming something of a frequent occurrence as the gigantic ice shelf that extends into the ocean off the western edge of the continent is crumbling. Not only that, but the glaciers on the landmass are speeding toward the coast. Scientists are getting concerned at a rate that rivals the acceleration of the glaciers. If the melt-rate continues, or increases, many experts fear a catastrophic rise in ocean levels.

The latest Congressional Power Rankings are out and boy! Is Rick "indicted on 35 counts" Renzi's face red! He is in last place. The cleaning lady who vacuums unused conference rooms enjoys slightly more authority in the halls of congress than he does. Last place used to be held by my congressman, Emmanuel Cleaver, back when he was a freshman and the Publican kneecappers were running the show. He is now in the top half with breathing room, at 189.

Speaking of my congressman, he is calling on national party chairman Howard Dean to help cool the rhetoric before Democrats ruin their chances to win the White House. Cleaver penned a letter to Dean, urging him to appoint a special committee of party luminaries to mediate squabbles, like the chase for superdelegates, and such as the fight over seating Michigan and Florida delegates. He told Jo Mannies of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the prospect of a seven week ‘fist fight’ over the Pennsylvania primary sends chills down his spine.

Exactly What We Don't Need Right Now

Great...

ANKARA, Turkey - Turkish warplanes bombed 70 Kurdish rebel targets in northern Iraq on Monday, the military said.

Turkey, which is planning operations against the rebels with the help of U.S. intelligence, has reported five aerial attacks against the PKK guerrilla group in northern Iraq in the past two months. The PKK, which is led by Turkish Kurds who seek autonomy in southeastern Turkey, has launched attacks over the frontier into Turkey from safe havens in Iraq.

"Warplanes belonging to the Turkish Air Force hit targets of the PKK terrorist organization in the Avasin-Basyan and Hakurk regions of northern Iraq in an effective aerial attack that began at 3:00 a.m. (0100 GMT)," the military said on its Web site.

It said the planes hit 70 targets that were "detected and verified by intelligence sources," but did not specify the origin of the intelligence. All planes returned safely from the 12-hour operation, the military said.

"Utmost sensitivity was shown so that the civilian population in the region was not affected," it said.

Adem Uzun, a member of the rebel command, said 15 to 20 Turkish jets bombed rebel areas in northern Iraq, according to Firat, a Kurdish news agency. The agency reported that Uzun said in an interview with a Denmark-based Kurdish television station that the rebels had not suffered any casualties.

Senior Iraqi Kurdish officials confirmed earlier Monday that Turkish jets bombed areas near the towns of Khnera, Khwakurd and Sidakan in Irbil province.

I don't know about you, but a "twelve hour" air operation that hits "70 targets" and is carried out by "15 to 20" aircraft constitutes a pretty clear violation of a whole range of international laws and doesn't say much for the sovereignty of Iraq, does it?

Officially, we're telling the Turks NOT to invade, but as long as they can come across the border and bomb anything they want--reportedly, five times since the middle of December--than who cares, right?

I know, I know. No one's paying attention anymore because the surge is working.

Victor Davis Hanson - Let's Take a Look, Shall We?

Why not take a column from last month and refute some wingnuttery for fun on a rainy Tuesday morning?

VDH is in the italics and the red is my commentary plus a whole slew of factoids and whatnot culled from the Internets. Throw your best bits into the comments and see if you can come up with better stuff that refutes VDH.

October 18, 2007
Congress's New Role: Undermining U.S. Foreign Policy (by Victor Davis Hanson)

The president establishes American foreign policy and is commander in chief. At least that's what the Constitution states. Then Congress oversees the president's policies by either granting or withholding money to carry them out - in addition to approving treaties and authorizing war.
Apparently, the founding fathers were worried about dozens of renegade congressional leaders and committees speaking on behalf of the United States and opportunistically freelancing with foreign leaders.

[Actually, the Founding Fathers were far more concerned about a renegade Executive, and created the Congress in Article 1 of the Constitution to give that institution the power to hold in check any effort to steer this country towards ruin. ]

In our past, self-appointed moralists - from Charles Lindbergh and Joe Kennedy to Jimmy Carter and Jesse Jackson - have, from time to time, tried to engage in diplomacy directly contrary to the president's.
But usually Americans agree to let one elected president and his secretary of state speak for the United States abroad. Then if they're displeased with the results, they can show it at the ballot box every two years in national or midterm elections.

[No, they don't. "My job as majority leader is be supportive of our troops and to try to have input as decisions are made and to look at those decisions after they're made ... not to march in lock step with everything the president decides to do."-Senator Trent Lott (R-MS)]

But recently hundreds in Congress have decided that they're better suited to handle international affairs than the State Department.

[Yeah, we've heard that before. "I cannot support a failed foreign policy. History teaches us that it is often easier to make war than peace. This administration is just learning that lesson right now. The President began this mission with very vague objectives and lots of unanswered questions. A month later, these questions are still unanswered. There are no clarified rules of engagement. There is no timetable. There is no legitimate definition of victory. There is no contingency plan for mission creep. There is no clear funding program. There is no agenda to bolster our over-extended military. There is no explanation defining what vital national interests are at stake. There was no strategic plan for war when the President started this thing, and there still is no plan today"--Rep Tom Delay (R-TX)]

The U.S. Senate late last month passed a resolution urging the de facto breakup of wartime Iraq into federal enclaves along sectarian lines - even though this is not the official policy of the Bush administration, much less the wish of a sovereign elected government in Baghdad.
That Senate vote only makes it tougher for 160,000 American soldiers to stabilize a unitary Iraq. And Iraqis I spoke with during my recent trip to Iraq are confused over why the U.S. Congress would preach to them how to split apart their own country.

[Anything that puts an end to the ethnic cleansing in Iraq would have to be an improvement over what is going on right now. In fact, it's probably too late to stop the ethnic cleansing. But wait a minute--what do the Iraqis think?
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani endorsed a plan gaining support in the U.S. Congress to divide Iraq along ethnic lines into three separate regions under a limited central government. [snip] “I think the resolution passed by the Senate is a very good one,” Talabani said today on CNN’s “Late Edition” program. “It is insisting on the unity of Iraq, of the security of Iraq, of the prosperity of Iraq, of national reconciliation and asking our neighbors not to interfere in the internal affairs of Iraq.”]

Then, last week, the House Foreign Affairs Committee passed a resolution condemning Turkey for genocide against the Armenian people, atrocities committed nearly a century ago during the waning years of the Ottoman Empire.
If the entire House approves the resolution, the enraged Ankara government could do everything from invade Iraqi Kurdistan - in hot pursuit of suspected Kurdish guerrillas - to curtail U.S. over-flight privileges and restrict use of American military bases in Turkey.

[This has been going on for quite a while and has nothing to do with current policies. Long before the US invaded Iraq, Turkey was sending troops into Northern Iraq. "In recent weeks, the Turkish military has deployed thousands more troops and 100 tanks along the border with Iraq, ostensibly for exercises that have been billed as a routine reinforcement for an expected spring PKK offensive. But this buildup is causing speculation that Turkey could repeat past incursions, such as a 1995 operation that lasted for months and a 1997 attack that brought 50,000 Turkish troops deep into Iraqi territory. ]

This new falling-out could interfere with supplying our soldiers in Iraq. And it complicates a myriad of issues, from the NATO alliance to Turkey's bid to join the European Union.
The speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, earlier this year took another hot-button foreign-policy matter into her own hands when she made a special trip to reach out to Syria's strongman, Bashar Assad.

[The AP reports, “Earlier this month, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Ellen Sauerbrey held talks with a senior Syrian diplomat on how Damascus was coping with a flood of Iraqi refugees, the first such talks in the Syrian capital for more than two years.”]

That visit to Damascus was played up in the government-run Syrian press as proof that ordinary Americans don't feel that Syria is a state sponsor of terrorism. Never mind that the Assad dictatorship helps terrorists get into Iraq to kill American soldiers, is suspected of involvement with the assassinations of journalists and democratic leaders in Lebanon, and recently had bombed by the Israelis a facility reported to contain a partially built nuclear reactor.

[Late 2006: Sen. Arlen Specter, a 26-year Senate Republican, said he will visit Syria despite loud objections by the Bush administration, contending the situation in Iraq is so dire that it is time Congress step up to the plate and see what it can do. Specter, R-Pa., said in an interview late Friday that he is planning a trip to the Middle East that will include Israel and Syria. The senator said he and other Republicans are concerned that the administration's policies in the Middle East are not working and that other GOP members may follow in his footsteps.
"I've talked to my Republican colleagues, and there is a disquiet here," Specter said.]

What are we to make of a Congress that now wants to establish rather than just oversee U.S. foreign policy? Can it act as a foil to the president and so give our diplomats leverage abroad with wayward nations: "We suggest you do x, before our volatile Congress demands we do y?"
Maybe - but any good is vastly outweighed by the bad. Partisan politics often drive these anti-administration foreign policies, aimed at making the president look weak abroad and embarrassed at home.

[The Republican House, guided by then Majority Whip Tom DeLay, actually voted 213-213 against paying the cost for U.S. military involvement while our troops were on the ground. Forty Republican Senators also voted against that funding bill.]

House representatives too often preach their own district politics, less so the American people's interest as a whole. What might ensure their re-election or win local campaign funds isn't necessarily good for the United States and its allies.
And too often we see frustrated senators posture in debate during televised hearings, trying out for the role of chief executive or commander in chief. Most could never get elected president - many have tried - but they seem to enjoy the notion that their own under-appreciated brilliance and insight should supersede the collective efforts of the State Department.

[What State Department? The one run by Condoleeza Rice couldn't get two people to talk to each other at a blabbermouths anonymous meeting. The Republicans have ruined the State Department, and left America with a crippled foreign policy establishment. From the Carnegie Endowment: "The gutting of the State Department dates back to the 1990s, when a Republican Congress, looking at a post-cold war world, slashed its personnel numbers by roughly one third. Several blue-ribbon studies revealed that the U.S. government cut funding for foreign affairs programs from over $5 billion in 1996 to $3.64 billion in 2000 (in 1996 dollars). According to one report, these cuts also resulted in "decrepit facilities" at U.S. embassies that put American diplomacy "near a state of crisis."]

So they travel abroad, pass resolutions and pontificate a lot, but rarely have to clean up the ensuing mess of their own freelancing of American foreign policy.

[In 1999, this was the position of Rep. John Kasich: Kasich opposes all U.S. intervention in Kosovo under current circumstances, a spokesman for the Ohio Republican told CNN. Most recently, Kasich has urged the Clinton Administration to pursue mediation with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic rather than escalate the conflict. Though Kasich has been labelled an isolationist, he has in the past supported Clinton's bombing of terrorist targets in Afghanistan and Iraq. But in this case he told TIME magazine: "A great power has to have the discipline not only to go when necessary but to know when not to go ... Getting involved in ethnic, religious civil wars is a recipe for disaster." ]

Congress should stick to its constitutional mandate and quit the publicity gestures. If it is unhappy with the ongoing effort to stabilize a unified Iraq, then it should act seriously and vote to cut off all funds and bring the troops home.

["You can support the troops but not the president" -Representative Tom Delay (R-TX).]

If the House wants to punish Turkey for denying that its Ottoman forefathers engaged in a horrific genocide, then let congressional members likewise deny funds for our military to stay among such a genocide-denying amoral host.

[Depending on who you talk to, Republicans have never really been consistent when it comes to the slaughter of people. Senator Don Nickles of Oklahoma said [in 1999] last week that he would oppose a NATO bombing campaign "unless and until the Serbs really begin a very significant massacre against the people in Kosovo."]

If Speaker Pelosi believes that Syria is not a terrorist entity but a country worth re-engaging diplomatically, then let her in mature fashion introduce legislation that would resume full American financial relations with our new partner Damascus.
Otherwise, it's all talk - and dangerous talk at that.

[A U.S. Republican congressman met President Bashar Assad on Thursday, a day after a visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, spurning the White House policy of isolating the Syrian leadership. Congressman Darrell Issa of California said U.S. President George W. Bush had failed to promote the dialogue that is necessary to resolve disagreements between the United States and Syria. "That's an important message to realize: We have tensions, but we have two functioning embassies," Issa told reporters after separate meetings with Assad and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem.]

Turkish Parliament Votes Overwhelmingly to Authorize Cross-Border Incursions in Pursuit of Kurdish Terrorists

The Turkish Parliament has voted to authorize the government to launch cross-border incursions into Iraq to pursue PKK terrorists that find safe-haven in the Kurdish areas of Iraq.

The motion passed with 507 votes in favor and 19 opposed, and the passage brings Turkey one step closer to entering the conflagration in Iraq and gives the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan one year in which to launch offensives against Kurdish terrorists who carry out attacks in Turkey from safe havens in Iraq. “After so many incidents, we’re at a point that our patience has run out,” said Cemil Cicek, a government spokesman and a member of a special council on terrorism, speaking in the parliamentary chamber.

Bear in mind that over the last two decades, Kurdish terrorists have inflicted at least ten times the toll America experienced on September 11, 2001 on the Turks. Under US law, the PKK is a terrorist organization, and militias are not – but the U.S. military attacks the militias and not the PKK. (This coddling of the PKK undermines the seriousness of a so-called war-on-terror, to say the very least.)

Terrorist organizations are defined by a willingness to attack civilians in an effort to achieve political objectives via public pressure. The PKK routinely commits acts of terrorism against Turkey in order to promote their separatist agenda.

“We are making it very clear to Turkey that we don’t think it is in their interests to send troops into Iraq,” President Bush said at a news conference at the White House. “There’s a better way to deal with the issue than having the Turks send massive troops into the country.”

But Turkish officials say that recent diplomatic efforts have not succeeded. Turkey signed a security agreement with Iraq in September, but since then, more than two dozen Turks have been killed in rebel attacks, some of them civilians, and the government is under strong public pressure to act.

Turkey is out of patience and not at all interested in negotiating with the terrorists of the PKK. They are only interested in actions that would eliminate the PKK as a threat to the national security of the Turkish state.

This is going to be interesting, and the next few days will set the tone of Turkish-American relations for the remainder of the Bush administration. And keep in mind…The die for preemption was cast with the United States invasion of Iraq, and frankly, George ‘aWol’ Bush and his cast of cultural cretins have so degraded the status of the United States that their warnings and preening are about as effective as the Big Lebowski bellowing at the Dude “Get a job, Sir!”

About That Turkish Election

The Turkish elections are over, and the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) walked away with a landslide, garnering nearly 47% of the vote and securing 340 of the seats in the 550 seat parliament. This is sufficient to allow the AKP to rule without needing to form a coalition government. The election was a setback to the secular establishment and the Turkish military. (Graph courtesy of Today's Zaman)

The probability approaches one that the hostile overtures by the Turkish military on the Iraqi border were posturing and preening in the run-up to the elections. Now the danger lies in Prime Minister Erdoğan feeling emboldened and overstepping, initiating hostilities across the border into Kurdistan and setting off an avoidable crisis.

Erdoğan declined to mention a possible cross-border operation but said necessary steps would be taken in the fight against terrorism, which he said was a long-term task.

He also pledged to step up the fight against “criminal gangs” believed to have links with some state officials and institutions.

The election was held against a backdrop of growing nationalism and calls for the military to cross the Iraqi border and quash the Kurdish terrorists of the PKK that find safe-haven in the Kurdish areas of Iraq. The PKK has engaged in a persistent campaign of terrorism across the Anatolian region of Turkey for years. These terrorist attacks have killed over 35,000 Turks over the past two decades (that is more than ten times the loss of life America sustained on September 11, 2001, just to offer perspective.)

One of the first issues the new government will have to deal with will be whether or not to stage an offensive into Iraq over the objections of the United States and the Iraqi government.

The election doubled as a referendum of Erdoğan’s handling of a stand-off with the Turkish military last spring that had the military threatening to step in and nullify the election if the secular way of life in Turkey were threatened by a president and prime minister from the same party, rooted in political Islam.

"Our democracy successfully passed a significant test in a manner that would constitute a model to the world and proved its maturity. Our democracy emerged stronger. The winner of the elections is democracy, security and stability," Erdoğan told supporters packing a street outside his party headquarters.

“Our nation confirmed that the AK Party represents the social center. This is the first time a party has managed to increase its support while in government in 52 years,” he said.

Erdoğan also assured the secularist electorate who did not vote for his party that their choice is respected. “I understand the message from those who did not vote for us. Rest assured. … There will be no concession on the basic characteristics of the republic,” he said. “Our word to you is that we will embrace all of Turkey with no discrimination.”

The results of yesterday election require a bit more analysis than just “who won and who lost” due to how the Turkish electoral system is established.

To take seats in the Turkish parliament a party must overcome a 10% election threshold. This means that three parties will hold seats – the AKP, the CHP and the MHP

Although it won more votes than it did in the past, the AK Party is set to get fewer seats given the fact that the parliamentary seats will be distributed among three parties now, instead of two as was the case after 2002 elections. The AK Party is still certain to form a single-party government, controlling, however, fewer seats than required to change the Constitution or elect the president on its own

The Turkish elections are over, and the results are in. But what it all means will be played out in the months to come.

So it never happened

UPDATE: Don't take my word for anything. Go read Juan Cole on the subject.

Remember how I said I would be following the Turkish invasion into Iraq all day, and then I didn't post on it again? That's because no details ever emerged.

That's because it didn't happen.

The AP and Reuters ran with a rumor from the DEBKAfiles. A gossip column for the intel world. Frankly, had I known that was MSNBC's ultimate source I would never have posted about it. But it was a gutcheck - and i know just how jumpy I am about the chess match we are playing with Iran and Turkey with a checkers man at the board.

Turkish military crosses into Iraq pursuing Kurdish terrorists

This has the potential to be really, really bad. Our NATO ally Turkey just put their ball in play in Iraq. Thousands of Turkish troops just crossed the border into Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish guerrillas who launch terrorist attacks against Turkey from bases in northern Iraq.

The United States has invested heavily in the de facto Kurdistan, it being the only bright spot that can be pointed to. (Overlooking that inconvenient bit about the Kurds thinking it’s a grand idea to try their hand at genocide where the Assyrian Christians are concerned.)

So now we are facing an unthinkable. It is entirely possible that within a few short hours the United States will be faced with picking a side between Allies. Turkey has a modern, highly trained professional military. They are not to be sneered at. They are, for want of a better word, pretty much badasses to a man. The Kurds, we have trained and armed. Turkey has the capacity to roll over the Kurds in short order. The side with an Air Force always wins. Remember that.

Something else to remember: Iran has Kurdish relations. This could, if not defused, give Iran entry into the Iraq war. When I said this has the potential to get really, really bad...This is what I meant.

I do know one thing without a doubt...this is certainly no time for the hamfisted incompetence of Condi Rice.

This will pretty much be my topic today. Look for updates and fresh posts frequently. Details and background about the region coming soon.

Call me a mushy-headed liberal, but I don't think you are supposed to treat your friends this way...

It is high time that America takes a hard look at what is happening in Turkey – and accept some responsibility. The internal struggles in Turkey are a direct result of Bush’s pathetic foreign policy. Some folks seem to think that once an ally, always an ally, Turkey is a member of NATO, and wants to join the EU, so screw ‘em – we’ll do what we want and they will like it. And even if they don’t, who cares?

That is a dangerous position to operate from, and nearly impossible to defend.

Turkey is every bit as important as an ally today as it was during the Cold War. It is the only secular and Democratic Islamic state, and the Turks in general have looked favorably on America and the freedoms enjoyed by our people. Turkey is a vital counter-balance to the Islamic fundamentalism that many middle-eastern states espouse. After a long military dictatorship, they began to taste and enjoy the freedoms Americans take for granted for themselves. But foreign policy cock-ups by the gang that can’t shoot straight have threatened Turkey on so many levels…

First of all, the Turks are none to thrilled to have a civil war raging on their south-east border. They are also understandably apprehensive about the emboldened muscle the Kurds are flexing, too.

The quasi-independence of the Iraqi Kurds has become a flashpoint for Kurdish nationalism. Kurdish terrorists are using Iraq as a base for attacks inside Turkey. This situation has prompted the Turkish military to publicly threaten that they will cross the border and clear out terrorist bases.

(I, for one, am horrified at the prospect of the Turkish Army rolling into Northern Iraq and engaging the Peshmerga. The Turks, of course, would annihilate the Kurdish forces. But oh, good God, that would be a bloody, brutal clash, the likes of which modern humanity has not beheld. The brutality that the world would witness would likely be the envy of the Serbian butchers of the 1990’s.)

These rumblings from the Turkish armed forces has led the United States to issue stern warnings, urging the Turks not to do it, and a heavy blast of anti-American editorials in Turkish newspapers, accusing the U.S. of hypocrisy. The Turks, of course, justifiably question why the U.S. can chase "terrorists" 6,000 miles away, but have the temerity to tell the Turks they can’t do so, when they are fighting terrorist on their own border.

Turkey has national elections coming up this year, and the negative perception of the United States in Turkey – only 12% of Turks have a positive view of America, down from 52% before the Iraq war – stands to influence the elections unfavorably. Apprehension is high that the Islamic party will consolidate it’s power on the country by electing an Islamic party president.

Complicating matters further, the Turkish military has weighed in and asserted that the country will remain secular, even if it does so at gunpoint. They have warned that if an Islamic party president is elected, a coup is a done deal.

It’s freakin’ surreal when you contemplate the possibility that a Middle Eastern nation with over 80% of the country practicing Muslims threatens a coup to prevent an Islamic government from taking power.

And today, a million people took to the streets to protest the trend away from secularism.

We need to be paying attention to this, and taking input from our ally seriously – or we may not have that ally anymore. This is a huge deal people. Turkey is strategically, culturally, geographically, politically - (hell I could come up with adjectives until sundown) - important. If George Bush manages to go ahead and screw us out of that alliance, we may just end up going the way of the Ottomans. Wouldn’t that be ironic?

[Cross-posted to Watching Those We Chose]