Would McCain reprise the Cold War?

That is a justified fear when he makes pronouncements like he would like to kick Russia out of the G-8. It didn't get much notice when he made his sweeping foreign policy speech in March - perhaps because of the media mancrush that we have been diligently documenting - but this is definitely worth examination. Not because he could actually do it - the United States is only one of eight member nations, as the name indicates, and the other seven would not go for it - but because such a position would further alienate the few allies we have left.

The Group of Eight, or G-8, as it's popularly known, makes decisions by consensus, so no single nation can kick out another. Most experts say the six other countries — Great Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Japan and Canada — would never agree to toss Russia, given their close economic ties to their neighbor. A senior U.S. official who deals with Russia policy said that even Moscow would have to approve of its own ouster, given how the G-8 works.

"It's not even a theoretical discussion. It's an impossible discussion," said the senior official, who requested anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak publicly. "It's just a dumb thing."

Aside from that, many wonder whether McCain's suggestion would be wise policy. They fear that if McCain is elected and follows through on an attempt to toss Russia from the group, it could anger and isolate Russia, which has been increasingly assertive on the world stage, autocratic within its borders and is the second-largest producer of the hydrocarbons that feed the world's energy needs.

"In Europe, there's very little support ... for a policy like that," said Stephen Larrabee, an expert on Europe and Russia at the RAND think tank. "It's too late in the game to try and oust Russia."

The proposal also seemed at odds with the theme of McCain's speech, which promised a less unilateral approach to world affairs than the Bush White House has pursued. That could reflect tension between two Republican foreign-policy camps vying for influence in McCain's campaign: the pragmatic realists and the hard-line neo-conservatives — with the neo-cons ascendant for now in Russia policy.

"There are a lot of important issues that we need Russia's support on. ...What's to be gained by tossing Russia out? We feel more self-righteous about ourselves?" said Andrew Kuchins, the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, a center-right think tank.

Let's call this idiocy what it is...the crankery of a backward-thinking cold-war codger, unable to turn around and embrace the future so he cleaves to the comfort of the known, i.e. the past.

And here is all you need to know about just how stupid this idea really is...Heritage wankers think it's a splendid notion....and when was the last time those chuckleheads were right about any damned thing?

Meet the new boss...beholden to the old boss...

Russia has a Putin puppet new president today, sort of. Dimitri Medvedev, Vladimir Putin's hand-picked successor, was sworn in a few hours ago in an elaborate and opulent Kremlin ceremony. Putin stood at his shoulder as he took his oath and after the ceremony, they walked out of the Kremlin Palace together to survey the grounds and review the presidential guard.

The Parliament is expected to confirm Mr. Putin as Prime Minister tomorrow, and on Friday the ceremonies will conclude with a Soviet-style military parade in Red Square - bombers will buzz overhead, low and loud and tanks will rumble through, just like the old days.

Russia is emerging as a superpower, no matter what the chucklehead who was chattering on NPR this morning as I was stirring from sleep says. I actually woke up to some jackass from Panorama blathering on about Russia and saying that yes, they have natural resources and hydrocarbons, but really, they are just a third-world country..."Russia's main priority is to stop pretending it's a great power, which it isn't. Russia may have natural resources and a lot of potential, but it's a Third World country," were his exact words.

I have never seen combat, but I woke up screaming.

Let's go over the three prerequisites to be considered a superpower:

Nuclear weapons. Check. Russia has something like ten thousand of them with the capacity to reach anywhere on the globe and they have tested a new MRV and missile in the last year.

Economic clout. Check. Russia has that in spades, and they aren't mortgaged to China for the next three generations.

A Blue-Water Navy. Check. Russia has carriers and subs and a large, seagoing fleet.

Any country that possessed those three elements has the ability to project power around the world. And saying words that indicate otherwise does not change that reality. Russia has all three and China is poised on the edge.

Like it or not, we are not the only game in town any more, and we are not really in a position to get too damned chirpy with either Russia or China right now.

And there is yet another reason why we sure as hell can't have McCain at the helm in this country.

If we are going to avoid another cold war, we have to have a president who looks ahead to the future, not back to an adversarial past.

I wonder if George saw a hint of this when he looked into Pootie-Poot's soul?

The Bush administration lost a big one on Monday when Russia announced that it had delivered a shipment of nuclear fuel rods to Iran to be used in a reactor that is to be used for power generation. Russia stressed that the fuel rods are in Iran, but will be under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) , the United Nations agency that monitors nuclear material across the globe.

Back in Washington, aWol nearly strained something as he struggled mightily to construct a sentence and make a comment that wouldn't do any further damage to the fragile relationship the United States currently has with Russia. He managed to not only tamp down his urge to criticize, but also to offer something along the lines of praise...“If the Russians are willing to do that, which I support, then the Iranians do not need to learn how to enrich,” President Bush said Monday. “If the Iranians accept that uranium for a civilian nuclear power plant, then there’s no need for them to learn how to enrich.”

The timing could not have been worse. Just two weeks ago, the intelligence shops released their NIE that revealed that the Iranians stopped their weapons program in 2003. That NIE cut the legs from under aWol and Cheney, and has dampened the call for war with Iran.

Even thought the administration has moved to keep the pressure on the Iranian government, the release of the NIE has served to embolden Iran, and it has made it highly unlikely that China and Russia will be on board for the next round of sanctions by the United Nations Security Council.

The delivery of the fuel rods to the Iranian facility will certainly embolden them further.

As for Bush administration officials, their public comments were one thing, and their private comments were another thing entirely. “There is no doubt that Russia and the rest of the world want to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon,” was the public comment made by White House spokesman, Gordon D. Johndroe. “And today’s announcement provides one more avenue for the Iranians to make a strategic choice to suspend enrichment.”

In private, however, they lamented the fact that the Russians didn't stall on the delivery, and project an image of a united front that was hanging together and toeing a hard line. “We for many years tried to stop it, and for the last year we’ve known there was no way to stop it, and that it was coming, and we held our breath on the timing,” a senior administration official said.

All that breath-holding was for naught.

Two weeks ago, Russia alerted the Bush administration that the details had been worked out, including the placement of safeguards that would allow for greater international inspections at Bushehr, and that the shipment would proceed.

The U.S. had already agreed, in principle, that Russia could provide the fuel rods, so long as safeguards were in place to handle the spent fuel. With that position clarified, there was no choice for the U.S. to make - the Bush administration had to accept that they had no grounds to keep pressuring Russia to delay the shipment.

So the shipment went forward. Now the question remains - was it purely economics? Or was there a subtle, hidden message? Is this muscle flexing by Russia routine, or something that we should be concerned about?

I'm gonna hazard a guess, and say it's probably the latter.

Heckuva job, there, George. Heckuva job.

Kasparov Speaks...

Garry Kasparov speaks out:

"There are no illusions that what is being called elections was the most unfair and dirtiest in the whole history of modern Russia," Kasparov said at a news conference, pointing at reports of massive vote violations.

"We fully realize that it's useless to seek the truth in Russian courts," he added.

Kasparov, who heads the Other Russia coalition of opposition groups, was arrested and jailed for five days for leading a protest rally in Moscow on Nov. 24. His group was not allowed to run for parliament.

That's a pretty effective way of ensuring there is little or no dissent--just keep people from running for office. As our own State Department remains disengaged and completely irrelevant when it comes to dealing with the rise of Putin, it's comforting to note that modern Russia is moving towards another "cult of personality" phase.

TVER, Russia (AP) — Hundreds of grim citizens jammed a theater here Thursday, vowing to hold parliament accountable for executing President Vladimir Putin's policies even after he steps down next year.

The gathering was one of the most visible in a series of recent demonstrations, testimonials and appeals across Russia's 11 time zones, urging Putin to remain in power somehow after his second term ends this spring. He is barred by law from seeking another term as president.

Critics have called the outpouring of support for Putin evidence that a personality cult has sprung up around the 55-year-old former KGB lieutenant colonel. But hundreds of members of the "All Russia Council of Initiative Groups to Support Putin," who gathered Thursday, listened to a parade of speakers describe Putin's leadership as crucial to Russia's future.

"The existence of our group is needed until Putin's plan is implemented and until we make sure that Putin remains an active leader of our country," said Irina Nosachevskaya, from Russia's Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad.

Even though Putin is not allowed to run for a third term, this group is trying to find a way to keep him in power. After all, Putin is only 55 and in excellent health. There's no reason to believe that he couldn't run Russia for another 30 years.

Supporters of George W Bush, the 27% dead-enders club, had no comment.

Russia moves to consolidate power in Europe

Map of the North Stream Gas Pipeline
With the $5.7 Billion, 1200-kilometer North Stream Gas Pipeline which will connect Russia and Germany virtually a done deal, and construction underway, Vladimir Putin has turned his attention to consolidating Russian power and influence, and snaking Russian tentacles farther into Europe. As you can see from the broken line on the map, there are designs on extending the North Stream pipeline all the way to Britain.

But what is an autocrat to do?

Simple, really. First, you just ignore the fact that Europe is trying to reduce dependence on Russian energy commodities and build another pipeline! Call it South Stream, and have it snake throughout Europe from it's European point of origin in Bulgaria. In the Bulgarian capitol Sofia for a two-day state visit, Putin was unable to resist turning the screws just a bit, and writing in an editorial "Projects like South Stream are in the long-term national interests of Russia and those of our European partners."

Putin has again thrown a wrench in the system. In Sofia on Friday and Saturday, he secured Bulgarian agreement for a new pipeline to cross the country on its way further into Europe. The project is called South Stream, and it's in direct competition with the EU joint project known as Nabucco. The pipeline named after a Giuseppe Verdi's opera connects Europe directly to the sources of gas in the Caspian Sea and in Central Asia -- and the idea was to circumvent Russia altogether.

Europeans, though, have had problems realizing their $5 billion project. So far, Nabucco exists only on paper. And it's still unclear where the gas for the pipeline would come from. There is an agreement with Azerbaijan, but experts doubt that sources there are sufficient to supply the massive project.

Other Central Asian countries rich in natural-gas, like Turkmenistan, have been traditionally within the sphere of Russian influence. Iran could jump in with its gas reserves to fill the gap, but cooperation with the Mullah's regime has run into political obstacles.

Russia, on the other hand, doesn't have any of those shortcomings to deal with. They have plenty of money, and hydrocarbon resources out the wazoo. And they have pulled out all the stops to advance their self-interest - and influence - in Europe. last June, Gazprom and the Italian energy concern Eni inked a deal for the construction of a 900-kilometer pipeline that would go under the Black Sea from Russia to Bulgaria. But that is just for starters. The next step of the project stipulates that the South Stream project shall continue through Italy, Austria and Hungary.

"I think Russia will succeed in securely anchoring South Stream in the European Union. We're dealing with a type of energy foreign policy here and the West has been dozing. But the Russians have a plan and they have the gas and plenty of money," said Alexander Rahr of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

Nabucco and South Stream are in a race, and time is of the essence. Unfortunately for Nabucco, the Russians are a step ahead. If South Stream comes on line, it will deliver about 30 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Europe.

Putin also wants the project to advance because it affords a way for him to circumvent traditional transit countries like Ukraine, Poland and Belarus. "The Ukrainian corridor is not secure," says Victor Gavrilov of Russia's Gubkin Academy of Oil and Gas. A conflict with Ukraine in early 2006, in which Russia turned off the taps and cut off the gas to the Ukraine because the countries could not agree on a higher natural gas price underscored the instability. Kiev responded by tapping into Russian transit pipes crossing its territory, illegally siphoning off gas intended for Western Europe. "But our customers in the West blamed us," Gavrilov says, explaining the official Russian view.

Rahr, assessing the growing European need for natural gas, says, "I think that both pipelines can, and actually need, to coexist." In other words - the construction of South Stream wouldn't necessarily spell the inevitable doom of Nabucco.

But Europe could just forget about reducing their dependence on Russian gas.

Russia and China thwart the International Community

The inherent weakness and ineffectiveness of Condoleezza Rice as a diplomat has all but guaranteed a rise in the obstructive tendencies of China and Russia. It's obviously not entirely her fault that both countries have decided to thwart the international community with regards to sanctioning Zimbabwe--but it is also true that there is absolutely no way the Russians and Chinese can be persuaded by anything she says or does. Because of that the US has had, in effect, a lame duck foreign policy for years.

Russia on Saturday attacked remarks by U.S. and British officials who criticized Moscow's veto on proposed U.N. sanctions against Zimbabwe.

The Russian Foreign Ministry in a statement Saturday said it was "impermissible" that the criticism called into doubt Russia's worthiness as a Group of Eight partner.

The United States accused Russia and China of standing with Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe against his own people, after the two permanent members of the U.N. Security Council vetoed proposed sanctions against Zimbabwe.

The resolution would have imposed an arms embargo on Zimbabwe, an international travel ban and a freeze on the personal assets of Mugabe and 13 other officials.

It also called for the appointment of a U.N. special envoy for Zimbabwe.

The U.S., along with Britain and France, supported the resolution, arguing that sanctions were needed to respond to the violence and intimidation that opposition leaders and international observers said Mugabe and his supporters used to steal the recent presidential election.

Russia, however, claimed the sanctions would have taken the U.N. beyond its mandate, while China argued Zimbabwe should be allowed to resolve its political crisis on its own.

You don't threaten to throw Russia out of the G8--you either do it or you don't do it. And who realistically thinks that would happen anyway? Russia has Europe over a barrel when it comes to energy supplies anyway.

The fact that the UN can't stop arms from going to Zimbabwe effectively ends the possibility that anything will be done any time soon. And the ineffectiveness of the UN body plays into the hands of the people who think Rice is a capable diplomat because it confirms their bias against the organization.

--WS

Ukraine to Join NATO?

Talk about a bad idea...

Speaking at a news conference Tuesday with Ukraine's president in the country's capital of Kiev, Mr. Bush said he would work as hard as he can to help Ukraine join the NATO alliance, and he declared that Russia will not have a veto over the matter.

Mr. Bush praised democratic and military reforms undertaken to help support Ukraine's bid for NATO membership. He said that the United States "strongly supports" Ukraine's request to get an outline for what it needs to do to join out of this week's NATO summit.

The President spoke after talks with his counterpart, President Viktor Yushchenko. The Ukrainian leader said he is sure his country will "receive a positive signal" during the summit. At the summit, NATO leaders are expected to formally invite Croatia, Albania and perhaps Macedonia to join, expanding the alliance's imprint in the Balkans. Mr. Bush supports that expansion and also wants Ukraine and Georgia to get on track for membership.

Is it the intention of the United States to further provoke Russia into making a move to secure itself? If the natural boundaries that once protected Russia from invasion are removed--and if the great breadbasket that points at the underbelly of Russia becomes a Western NATO power with treaty obligations and economic interests more dependent on the Germans, the Americans and the British and less so on Russia--then, guess what?

Russia is going to act.

I think it's all academic--everyone knows Bush is on his desperate "legacy" tour of the world and no one's betting on neocons to be calling the shots for much longer. But it's an interesting way of looking at desperation. Putting missiles in Poland and enticing Georgia into NATO is like waking up a bear that was already pissed off and awake in the first place. A bear that is sick of being hungry and cold and wants a little fresh meat, perhaps.

On a side note, I think it's ironic that the military has all but purged Russian and Serbo-Croatian linguists from the ranks. The intelligence community has been so Arabic/Persian language focused while trying to expand the number of Chinese and Urdu linguists that it isn't even funny--if anything were to start with Russia or, more likely, with Serbia, we'd be back to square one again in most cases.

Russian Troops Are On the March

Crossposted from our new home blog,They gave us a republic...
UPDATE I / WS

Screenshots from video, courtesy of the BBC:

These would appear to be Russia's main battle tanks, the T-90s:



Russian self-propelled artillery guns (the 2s3 152mm?):



Russian troops in BMP armored personnel carriers:




The Associated Press is reporting that:

Russian television says Russian troops are moving into South Ossetia.

And the region is in turmoil.

Russian authorities said several of its peacekeepers died in a Georgian attack in South Ossetia, which borders Russia and has strong ties to its vast northern neighbor, and they vowed not to leave Russian citizens in the territory unprotected.



"The Georgian leadership has launched a dirty adventure," a statement from Russia's Defense Ministry said on Friday. "We will not leave our peacekeepers and Russian citizens unprotected."

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Georgia started the fighting and warned that Russia would respond to their actions.

"Heavy weapons and artillery have been sent there, and tanks have been added. Deaths and injuries have been reported, including among Russian peacekeepers," Putin said in comments carried Friday by Russia's Interfax news agency.

"It's all very sad and alarming. And, of course, there will be a response."

Earlier Friday, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said in a televised statement that Russian aircraft bombed several Georgian villages and other civilian facilities.

We will watch what happens through the day and the weekend--this could end up being the biggest story of the month, Olympics notwithstanding.


Americans shouldn't worry--Secretary of State Rice was just there last month and straightened everything out:

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has arrived in Georgia amid an escalating row between Russia, Georgia and the United States.

Russia accused Georgia of bringing the South Caucasus to the brink of armed conflict - comments which both Ms Rice and Nato condemned as "unhelpful".

See? She said it was "unhelpful." And that took care of the problem.

On August 2nd, Secretary Rice appeared at the Aspen Music Festival. I'm glad she has had the opportunity to take time out of her busy schedule and attend to important things.

Here's yesterday's full mention of the issue in South Ossetia from the US State Department during its daily press briefing:

QUESTION: Gonzo, do you have anything about Ossetia?

MR. [Gonzalo R.] GALLEGOS: South Ossetia?

QUESTION: Yes.

MR. GALLEGOS: I think so.

QUESTION: President Saakashvili -- you know, there were some victims, some fighting last night. And President Saakashvili said that the – he’s – he called several world leaders asking them for their help in maintaining peace. I wanted to know if he called Secretary Rice.

MR. GALLEGOS: Well, we’re – I don’t believe – I don’t have any further information. I don’t have it that he spoke to Secretary Rice. But we’re in close contact with senior Russian and Georgian officials. We’re urging Moscow to press South Ossetia’s de facto leaders to stop firing. We’re urging Tbilisi to maintain restraint. We’re very concerned about the situation. We call for an immediate end to the violence and for direct talks between the parties.

QUESTION: Do you think the South Ossetian people started the fighting, or who do you think is responsible?

MR. GALLEGOS: We think it’s important that both sides stop firing, that they sit down and they discuss this in a peaceful manner.

As you can see, "Gonzo" is on top of it. Your State Department at work, as fighting breaks out in a region where the warning signs were fairly evident earlier this year.

Russian military heavy equipment rolling into the region:

Update/Noon Central/BG

This situation is developing fast and the United States is in danger of getting sucked into it. Over at the most excellent and essential Newshoggers, I learned that the Georgians are recalling all forces in their control, including the combat brigade that is currently serving in Iraq as part of the Coalition forces.

They are asking for rapid response assistance and could ask the U.S. to airlift the brigade back to Georgia in USAF C-17s through the Tallil Airbase. That would put the U.S. on a hostile footing with yet another oil-producing nation - and this one has military prowess and battle-hardened troops, that make up a force that hasn't been decimated in the desert.

The Duck of Minerva has more.

Priorities:

The BBC, Fox News, and CBS news - three screenshots:







Remember to update your blogrolls and bookmarks with our new domain name, They gave us a republic...

War Between Georgia and Russia?

[link is now fixed--thanks to jerry]

If we had a functioning State Department, I'm not sure what they could do. Perhaps if we had someone in place who made her reputation as an expert on all things Soviet and/or Russian who could navigate the issues and approach the concerned parties as a real mediator...oh, but what am I saying? There's no way we'd ever find someone qualified, right?

Georgia is "very close" to a war with Russia, a Georgian minister said on Tuesday, citing Moscow's decision to send extra troops to the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia.

"We literally have to avert war," Georgian State Minister for Issues of Reintegration Temur Iakobashvili told a news briefing during a trip to Brussels.

Asked how close to such a war the situation was, he replied: "Very close, because we know Russians very well.

"We know what the signals are when you see propaganda waged against Georgia. We see Russian troops entering our territories on the basis of false information," he said.

Russia has said the troop build-up is needed to counter what it says are Georgian plans for an attack on breakaway Abkhazia and has accused Tbilisi of trying to suck the West into a war -- both of which are allegations that ex-Soviet Georgia rejects.

An extra Russian contingent began arriving in Abkhazia last week. Moscow has not said how many would be added but said the total would remain within the 3,000 limit allowed under a United Nations-brokered ceasefire agreement signed in 1994. Diplomats expect the reinforcement to be of the order of 1,200.

Georgia, a vital energy transit route in the Caucasus, has angered Russia by seeking membership of NATO.

Certain areas of what used to be the Soviet Union were absorbed into that entity to give the Russians breathing space. After invasion after invasion, the Russians decided that these areas on their borders were best held and kept out of the hands of any possible enemy. They're funny about their history--they don't like to see it repeated.

Georgia doesn't need to be in NATO. It should either find a way to accomodate Russia or find a way to be a neutral trader with as many countries as possible. And, unfortunately, "accomodating" the Russians these days doesn't lead to a whole lot of freedom, but we lost an opportunity to bring Russia into the family of nations because we didn't do enough to help them during their economic transformation. Had we spent the money to do so, these regional tensions might be a thing of the past.

Why The Litvinenko Case Still Matters

I don't know whether it is because of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, or our own lawlessness here at home, but the transformation of Russia into a virtually lawless state has escaped real notice in America. Do people realize that there simply is no justice system in Russia? That the Russian government simply kills people who criticize it? Relations between Russia and Great Britain are still strained because of the case of Alexander Litvinenko, who was poisoned with polonium and died in November, 2006.

But going public with an accusation like this (and another one that the Russians scouted out another London-based critic, Boris Berezovsky) is another matter and it will raise the diplomatic temperature.

Whether the comments were timed deliberately or whether they just came out in the course of a conversation with the BBC journalist is not clear. Sometimes, these revelations are not the result of a careful decision but just emerge and have all kinds of unexpected repercussions.

It is a reminder that all is certainly not well in the relationship between Russia and Britain and, beyond that, between Russia and the West in general.

It will dash any hopes that the meeting at the G8 in Japan between the two prime ministers, Gordon Brown and Dmitry Medvedev, might have started a new chapter.

The talks were in any case, according to a Russian official, "sharp" at times as Mr Brown raised the various issues clouding the relationship - the outstanding extradition request, the restrictions on the British Council and the Russian manoeuvres against BP [British Petroleum].

Did President Bush raise any substantive questions with Medvedev when they met with one another? Or did they have other things to talk about? Or is he operating under the assumption that Putin is still running Russia?

I think that's the safest assumption of all.

Russia Tests Military Capabilities in the Arctic

We like to keep tabs on what the Russian military does--almost as much as we like squirrels and punk rock. This falls into two categories--harmless posturing or signs that Russia is trying to reassert itself militarily.

Russia's navy conducted test flights near the North Pole on Thursday, boosting its military presence in an area believed to contain vast quantities of oil and natural gas.

Cpl. Vladimir Serga, a naval spokesman, said that Il-38 anti-submarine bombers and Tu-142 long-range strategic bombers of the Northern Fleet took part in the exercise, in which the planes' crews tested radio and weapons systems management equipment.

Serga described the exercise as successful.

The flights come two days after a Russian missile cruiser began patrols in the Arctic.

Russia's military glory days are probably behind it--but what is true is that the aging, irrelevant military of ANY country is probably a dangerous thing. Not enough attention is being paid by what is really the intent or goal of Russian military posturing. Widespread conflict? Highly unlikely. Limited displays of power that intimidate smaller trading partners? More likely. Overall, I would say that the goal is to strike a stronger bargaining position when it comes to negotiating trade deals and energy deals. Russia has to back up any and all threats to its economy--which is roughly the same size as that of France and hovers around 2.7 trillion in GDP--with the threat of limited force. Russia is dwarfed by the combined economies of Europe and has to assert itself any way that it can. In many ways, all it can do is behave like a slightly dangerous version of a mob hit man who still has the ability to take a few people out. No one really thinks he will, but no one wants to find out whether he is crazy enough to try it.

The Bush Administration, of course, remains disengaged and distracted.

--WS

Losing the Cold War after the fact

Image courtesy McClatchy - click to enlarge

Not content with mismanaging a war and an occupation to the point that America stands to end up with not just one, but two hash-marks in the "L" column, the chump in charge has reached back into the recesses of time and managed to give it a go at reversing the outcome of the freakin’ Cold War, too.

Seriously – didn't anyone else cringe when the Connecticut cowboy was selected by the Supremes to parry with Putin? I sure as hell did. Panic at the prospect of the little idiot in negotiations with Russia was one of my first reactions.

C’mon – on the one hand you have a moronic, coke-addled, intellectually incurious, sociopathic, amoral, inept and hapless doofus who failed upwards his whole life…and on the other a former KGB case officer – decisive, derisive, stridently nationalistic, cold, calculating and competent. There was simply no way in hell this was going to work out well for United States interests, but not enough of us “got it” and of those of us who did, not enough were speaking up; so those of us who did voice our concerns were viewed askance, like we needed a shiny jacket to go with our pretty tinfoil hats.

When the affable moron met the spy in Slovenia in the summer of 2001, and claimed he had “looked into his soul” and saw a good guy, I guffawed, and the mockery in my household was overt and palpable. The entire family got weeks of mileage out of “looking into souls.” Our oldest was leaving for college that summer, and we looked into the soul of the laptop salesman, the residence hall coordinator, the university bookstore clerk, the financial aid officer that administered his scholarship…pretty much everyone we came in contact with for weeks got a good soul-peering.

We aren’t laughing any more, though, because the fallout of aWol’s inept foreign policy is no laughing matter.

Bush and his circle of bubble-supporting yes-men, lackeys and corporate good-ole-boy cronies grossly misjudged the Russian leader, just blithely assuming he was “a good guy” and “one of us.” (In their jingoistic worldview, it is just assumed that everyone wants to be “like us” or they simply aren’t worth bothering with). The ethnocentric, swaggering, bloviating asshats just couldn’t see it coming, but our emic was bound to crash into theirs.

It did, and the results of this prolonged foreign policy train wreck have been painful to watch, especially for those with an awareness and understanding of the historical relationship between the two superpowers. In the wake of the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, there was unprecedented cooperation between the two nations. The Russians shared intelligence, and the U.S. government turned a blind eye to the dirty war raging in Chechnya.

Now, there is not even a pretext of cooperation and common goals.

Secretary of State Rice and Secretary of Defense Gates (two so-called “experts” on the former Soviet Union, both of whom failed to read the handwriting on that crumbling wall) went to Moscow to meet with the Russian president last week.

First Putin kept them waiting for over a half hour. Then he openly mocked their mission in front of the press and the T.V. cameras.

On Saturday, Defense Secretary Gates said that he isn’t sure Russia is even interested in cooperating with the United States to defend Europe against Iranian missiles or whether Moscow “simply wants to stop the U.S. from building missile defenses in Eastern Europe.” (emphasis mine).

Gates, speaking with reporters on his trip home, showed us some of that prescience he is famous for (remember, he was the CIA’s expert who insisted the Soviet Union was reemerging as it was crumbling) saying he believes Russia is reasserting it’s presence on the world stage. "I think President Putin is coming back and saying you know you have to take us into account on all these things. In essence: 'We are back. We've got a lot of money. And we are a key player.' " Then he quickly added "I'm putting words into his mouth. He didn't say these things. This is my interpretation of perhaps his thinking: 'And you will need our help to solve problems. And if you won't seek our help, we can prevent problems from being solved,' " Gates said.

Of course Russia is reasserting dominance and flexing muscles, and has been for some time! I dunno about the SecDef, but I have been paying attention. In April, it went largely unnoticed when it became official Russian policy to refer to the United States in an adversarial manner in official reports and press releases. In May, they tested a new MRV-ICBM. In July, they laid claim to the North Pole, an International Zone. In August, their pilots started buzzing Guam for the first time since the cold war. In October, the Russian President mocked and humiliated two cabinet secretaries.

And I haven’t even brought up the energy issue. Not directly, anyway. But that is what it all boils down too. Russia has Energy, the west needs that energy, and Russia is not a country we can just invade, commence “kickin’ ass” and take it away from.

This administration has destroyed American credibility, negotiating power and economic stature. A solid victory in the Cold War, after a half-century of ideological brinksmanship and reams of hard-fought treaties, has been cast aside.

If there is one person on the face of the earth who is more pleased than Osama bin Laden to see the United States mired down in Iraq, bleeding away blood and treasure, and destroying the finest Army the world has even seen, it is Vladimir Putin.

What scares me even more than the damage that will be done to this country by another year of fighting in Iraq is the long-range damage being done to our foreign policy by another year of Bush incompetence. The destruction of the relationship with Russia is arguably the greatest threat to long-range security that the United States will face for the next 50-100 years.

Russian Jets Pound Targets in Georgia

Crossposted from our new home blog,They gave us a republic...

The violence in the region is escalating...

Russian jets have carried out strikes on military targets in the central Georgian town of Gori, close to the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

Most of the targets seem to have been military bases, but Georgian officials said a number of civilians had been killed in residential buildings.

Russia said it had "liberated" the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali.

Earlier, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said his country was seeking "to force the Georgian side to peace".

The comments came after Russian commanders announced they were sending more troops into South Ossetia to support peacekeeping operations.

The Russian defence ministry confirmed two of its jets had been shot down over Georgia, although it did not say where.

In a live televised address, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said he would ask parliament to approve the introduction of martial law.

After days of exchanging heavy fire with the Russian-backed separatists, Georgian forces launched a surprise attack on Thursday night to regain control of the region, which has had de facto independence since a war in 1992.

Georgian troops in the city of Gori (NY Times)

A small contingent of US troops is in Georgia, and since Russian forces are attacking Georgian military installations, it is not known if they are in imminent danger:

About 130 U.S. military and civilian personnel are currently located in Georgia, where they are training Georgian troops for deployment to Iraq as part of the multinational force there. U.S. military officials in Baghdad said they had gotten no official word about statements from Tblisi that half of Georgia's 2,000-troop contingent was being called home.

It isn't something that is front and center in the reporting, since attacks on civilians are the real story here. But when you start to think about why the sides are fighting, it really does come down to energy revenues:

The BBC's Richard Galpin in Gori heard loud explosions and saw large plumes of smoke rising into the sky; soldiers and civilians were seen running through the streets.

One missile hit a military base, from which most of the soldiers appeared to have managed to escape beforehand, he says.

The Georgian military said residential buildings had also been struck, leaving a number of civilians dead. Our correspondent says injured civilians were being pulled from the buildings, which were on fire.

The Georgian foreign ministry said the Black Sea port of Poti, which is the site of a major oil shipment facility, had also been "devastated" by a Russian aerial bombardment.

Georgian troops riding to the front (NY Times)

The US and the United Nations seem ineffectual, unable to get past the Russian veto on the Security Council:

International Red Cross (ICRC) spokeswoman Anna Nelson said the ICRC had received reports that hospitals in the city were "overflowing" with casualties.

The BBC's James Rodgers in Moscow says diplomatic initiatives to end the fighting have so far proved fruitless.

On Friday evening, the UN Security Council failed to agree on the wording of a statement calling for a ceasefire.

Russia holds a permanent place on the Council, and has the power of veto over any official statements that it regards as unfair or inaccurate.

Permanent members Britain, the US and France, are pinpointing what they say is Russia's aggression as the key factor in the slide towards war, while Moscow insists Georgia is to blame.

In other developments:

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called on Russia to pull its troops out of Georgia and respect its territorial integrity
Georgia's president said his country was withdrawing its contingent of 2,000 troops from Iraq to help deal with the crisis
The European security organisation, the OSCE, warned that the fighting in South Ossetia could escalate into a full-scale war
The US and the EU were reported to be sending a joint delegation to the region to seek a ceasefire and Nato said it was seriously concerned.

She needs to go to Moscow and/or the region immediately. Not some envoy, not some flunky--she's the expert on Russia, and her area of expertise has so far proven to be an area of foreign policy in which she's about as effective as everywhere else she tries her hand--and that's not very damned much.

Remember to update your blogrolls and bookmarks with our new domain name, They gave us a republic...

Yet more evidence that occupying Iraq threatens our security

For the first time since the Cold War ended, Russia has displayed a muscular, some might say threatening, military stance with the United States.

Two TU-95 bombers reached Guam, a U.S. territory, as part of a military exercise this week, and their crews smiled at the pilots of the U.S. fighter jets that scrambled to intercept them, Maj. Gen. Pavel Androsov said Thursday.

"Whenever we saw U.S. planes during our flights over the ocean, we greeted them," Androsov said. "On Wednesday, we renewed the tradition when our young pilots flew by Guam in two planes. We exchanged smiles with our counterparts who flew up from a U.S. carrier and returned home."

The flight to Guam was part of a three-day exercise that saw Russian strategic bombers making 40 sorties and launching eight cruise missiles, said Androsov, who commands Russia's long-range bomber force.

Guam is about 3,200 miles (5,150 kilometers) southeast of the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok.

This is just the latest display of Russian muscle flexing. Earlier in the week, they lobbed a missile into the former Soviet republic of Georgia. A few weeks ago, they laid claim to the North Pole - an international zone. But most troubling of all...in May they successfully tested a next-generation MIRV ICBM capable of reaching the United States.

The only person on the planet that wants us to stay in Iraq on the open-ended plan more than Osama bin Laden...is Vladimir Putin. Make no mistake - Russia is not our ally, and every day we pound sand in Iraq, every yuan of debt we accrue, every G.I. that dies - is playing into the Kremlin's hand. Had Bush not stupidly invaded and occupied Iraq, Russia would not have achieved superp ower parity with the United States for at least a couple of decades. But thanks to the arrogance and hubris of the idiot prince, they are on the cusp. If they weren't, there is no way in hell they would be flying long-range bombers over a key U.S. military installation like Guam.

Heckuva job, George.

Sure Would Be Nice to Have a State Department Right Now

If you lived through the time when we faced the Soviet bear--and it seems like a lifetime ago, I know--then when you see stories like this, it should make your blood boil:

MOSCOW - Former chess champion Garry Kasparov was convicted of leading an opposition protest and sentenced to five days in jail by a Moscow court Saturday.

Kasparov and dozens of other demonstrators were detained hours earlier after riot police clashed with Kremlin opponents following a protest rally that drew several thousand people.

The former chess champion was forced to the ground and beaten, his assistant Marina Litvinovich said in a telephone interview from outside the police station where Kasparov was held."What you've heard is all lies," Kasparov said after the sentence was read. "The testimony is contradictory. There was not a single word of truth."

Two riot police testified in court that they had been given direct orders before the rally to arrest Kasparov, one of President Vladimir Putin's harshest critics. One of the policemen acknowledged that the two reports he had filed were contradictory.

Kasparov was charged with organizing an unsanctioned procession "of at least 1,500 people directed against President Vladimir Putin," of chanting anti-government slogans and of resisting arrest.

It sure would be nice to have a goddamned State Department right now, wouldn't it? Because we need a tough legion of diplomats to start going after the Putin regime on all fronts, in all areas, and in every way possible. We need to start squeezing them and engaging them and putting them in check, pun intended.

Unfortunately, we have a "Soviet" expert who has never gotten one thing right about Russia. We have Secretary Rice, shoe-shopping expert and blame shifting expert. Besides shoes and ducking responsibility for her inept management of the State Department, what is she good at? Piano? Sycophantic statements?

We have a serious problem brewing in Russia--who will succeed Putin? What will Russia continue to morph into?

Kasparov warned the world about Russia earlier this year when he told CBS News:

"We're facing a very dangerous regime that is threatening not only the future of my country but the stability of the whole world," Kasparov says.

And:

"I would probably say that Putin doesn't run the country, he runs a corporation. Call it KGB Incorporated," Kasparov says. "He is working on behalf of the ruling elite that wants to benefit from looting the country."

So--again. What the fuck? Why do we continue to see nothing but incompetence from our State Department? Why are they not seriously engaged on this issue? Why have we not recalled our ambassador or done something-anything-to respond to this type of incident?

People say that if a Democrat is elected next year, that Ambassador Holbrooke will be the next Secretary of State, and that, somehow, that's a bad thing. Well, Holbrooke's worst day as Secretary of State will be better by a mile than Rice's best day.

Putin Rattles the Saber

As the world financial system goes into freefall, the Russians rattle the saber. As Blue Girl posted earlier, the Russians have a message for Europe: they are still relevant, and they still have a military that can project power into Europe's backyard:

Russia has sent two long-range bombers to the Bay of Biscay, off the French and Spanish Atlantic coasts, to test-fire missiles in what Moscow billed as its biggest naval exercise in the area since the Soviet era.

Firing missiles off the coastline of two NATO members is the latest in a series of Kremlin moves flexing Moscow’s military muscle on the world stage.

Russian bombers joined aircraft carriers, battleships and submarine hunters from the Northern and Black Sea fleets for the Atlantic exercises, which come as the country enters an election campaign to choose a successor to President Putin.

“The air force is taking a very active part in the exercises of the navy’s strike force in the Atlantic,” the Russian air force said in a statement reported by Reuters. “Today, two strategic Tu-160 bombers departed for exercises in the Bay of Biscay, which ... will carry out a number of missions and will conduct tactical missile launches."

It sure would be nice to have a State Department right now, wouldn't it? I mean, diplomacy wouldn't necessarily stop this kind of thing, but it would go a long ways towards forcing their next moves to be a little less belligerent, perhaps.

Russia last month said it would begin major navy sorties into the Mediterranean, with 11 ships backed up by 47 aircraft, that would then travel to the Atlantic for exercises.

The navy’s flagship aircraft carrier, the Soviet-made Admiral Kuznetsov, was leading the fleet in the Atlantic where Nato were trying to keep a close eye on Russian movements, Russian media reported.



“This is the biggest exercise of its kind in the area since Soviet times,” a spokesman for Russia’s navy said, adding that more details would be released later. There was no further information about where in the Bay of Biscay, which lies off the west coast of France and the northern coast of Spain, the missile tests were due to take place.

Russia’s air force said turbo-prop Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers, codenamed “Bear” by Nato, would join ATO, would join the exercise on Wednesday “From January 23, the aviation component in the zone where the exercises are going on will be widened and the following planes will take part: Tu-160, Tu-95, Tu-22 M3, Il-78, A-50,”, the air force said.

Do you think the fact that our forces are tied up in the Persian Gulf has any relevance here?

The Nightowl Newswrap

Um...they do take pride in being ignorant The republicans in their current incarnation are the "Know Nothing's" of the 21st century. For four days the McCain campaign and the howler monkeys that desperately back his feeble run for the oval have been gleefully - and ignorantly - mocking Obama's suggestion that we all check our tire pressure to save a bit of energy. Even though the Energy department, auto manufacturers, NASCAR and all sorts of other experts on such matters point out that Obama's suggestion is spot on. "They're lying about what my energy plan is," said Obama. "They're making fun of a step that every expert says would reduce our oil consumption by 3 to 4 percent. It's like these guys take pride in being ignorant." Way to grasp the obvious there, Barack.


The dumbassery of David Brooks is rivaled only by his banality Someone tell that mo-ron that watching the national polls is a mugs game, since the popular vote doesn't determine the presidency. If you look at the state polls, you will find your landslide. Dumbass.


Memo to Faux Noise...there is no KFC in Fallujah. Wonder if Doocy will retract his assertion?


First he calls her a c*nt, then tries to turn her out topless at a biker rally? Yesterday in a campaign stop at the Sturgis biker rally, McCain offered up Cindy for the Miss Buffalo Chip contest. Something tells me neither of them are quite sure what that particular event entails...Click the link. Josh has all the details. Personally, she's a bit high maintenance for a wet t-shirt contest. Bedhead Barbie is more the catfight kind.

Stealing someone's identity gets more brazen every year: The Department of Justice announced Tuesday that it had charged 11 people in connection with the hacking of nine major U.S. retailers and the theft and sale of more than 40 million credit and debit card numbers. It is believed to be the largest hacking and identity theft case ever prosecuted by the Department of Justice. The charges include conspiracy, computer intrusion, fraud and identity theft. Three of the defendants are U.S. citizens, while the others are from places such as Estonia, Ukraine, Belarus and China. "So far as we know, this is the single largest and most complex identity theft case ever charged in this country," said Attorney General Michael Mukasey. "It highlights the efforts of the Justice Department to fight this pernicious crime and shows that, with the cooperation of our law enforcement partners around the world, we can identify, charge and apprehend even the most sophisticated international computer hackers."

Another Sunni leader killed along with two US troops: A roadside bomb killed two U.S. soldiers in a predominantly Shiite area in Baghdad on Monday, the first deadly attack against American troops in the capital in nearly a month, and gunmen killed one of the senior leaders of a U.S.-allied Sunni group fighting militants south of the capital. The U.S. military said another American soldier was wounded when the blast struck a U.S. patrol at about 9:30 a.m. in eastern Baghdad. The area was the site of fierce clashes and frequent roadside bombings blamed on Shiite militiamen before a cease-fire by anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The soldiers were the first to be killed in Baghdad since July 8, when a roadside bomb killed Spc. William McMillan III, a 22-year-old Army medic from Lexington, Ky., and wounded five other soldiers in the western neighborhood of Amariyah, a Sunni area. As of Monday, Aug. 4, 2008, at least 4,131 members of the U.S. military have died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

Tragedy on K2: Limping through ice on frostbitten feet, the last survivor of the mountaineering disaster that killed 11 climbers on K2 reached base camp Tuesday as cloud and snow prevented a helicopter rescue. "Now I really realize that everyone here has died," said Marco Confortola, who was stranded on the world's second highest peak after an ice fall nearly four days ago. "I am happy to be alive," the Italian climber told the Everest-K2-CNR, an Italy-based high-altitude scientific research group, during a phone call from base camp. K2, which straddles Pakistan and China in the Karakoram range, is regarded by mountaineers as far more challenging than Mount Everest, the world's highest peak. K2's knife-edged ridges and icy slopes are steeper and prone to both avalanches and sudden and severe storms.

Iraq asks for doctors to return: The Health Ministry has appealed to Iraqi physicians who fled the country due to violence to return to their jobs because security has improved, an official said Sunday. Dr. Essam Namiq, a deputy minister of health, said more than 165 Iraqi doctors have responded and resumed their work over the past 20 days, and he expected more than 90 percent to return this year. The violence of the past five years, much of which targeted professionals, "had forced the majority of the Iraqi doctors to abandon their hospitals and clinics" Namiq told a press conference in Baghdad's fortified Green Zone.

Yes, but could they close the gulf long enough to cause a major world oil shock? Pentagon said Tuesday that any move by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz would be "self-defeating" because its weak economy is so heavily dependent on oil revenues. "Shutting down the Strait, closing down the Persian Gulf, would be sort of a self-defeating exercise," said Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary. "That doesn't say anything about whether we tolerate such a thing to happen." Morrell's comments came in response to a warning by the new head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards that Iran could easily close the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil passes. General Mohammad Ali Jafari announced Monday that Iran has successfully tested an anti-ship missile with a range of 300 kilometers (180 miles.) "And given the equipment our armed forces have, an indefinite blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be very easy," Jafari said on state television.

Russians warned on South Ossetia: Washington Tuesday urged Moscow to avoid provocation in Georgia's separatist region of South Ossetia, after a diplomat said Russia was prepared to defend its citizens living there in case of conflict. "We don't believe that now is the time for any parties to be acting in a provocative way," said US State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos. "We believe that the violence should stop and all parties should begin a discussion so that they can move forward towards settling the situation," he added. Gallegos' statement followed a comment by Moscow's negotiator on South Ossetia, ambassador-at-large Yury Popov, that Russia would intervene in the separatist region if its citizens were in danger. "If events develop in the worst possible way, with the use of force, Russia will not be able to stand by seeing as Russian citizens live in South Ossetia," Popov was quoted as saying by Russia's Interfax news agency. South Ossetia has evacuated hundreds of women and children to Russia over the past few days after six people were killed on Friday by sniper and mortar fire from Georgian positions, the rebel province's government said. Georgia has denied readying for war and said there is no major evacuation. One reason for hope--Secretary Rice appears to not be part of these negotiations, at least, so far...

Is the era of the big commute over? It sure seems like it should be: The "end of the exurbs" trend narrative story has hit the Washington Post front page, with a very good article by Eric ("War on Drivers") Weiss. As we well know, families just aren't moving out to the fringe of the metropolitan area for cheap housing yet grueling commutes; "the days of building giant houses on former soybean fields on the outer fringes of metropolitan areas are over." Weiss not only identifies the trend but delves into the causes, and gets them right: Since the end of World War II, government policy has funded and encouraged the suburban lifestyle, subsidizing highways while starving mass transit... Federal spending is about 4 to 1 in favor of highways over transit. Today, more than 99 percent of the trips taken by U.S. residents are in cars or some other non-transit vehicle, largely as a result of decades of such unbalanced spending. I would never have guessed the number to be as high as 99 percent--that's an outrage.

Finally, from the just plain shut the fuck up and quit being a hypocrite files: John McCain on the recently recessed Congress: Earlier in the day, McCain told a biker rally, “Tell em’ to come back and get to work. When I’m president of the United States, I’m not going to let them go on vacation.” This strikes me as amusing for two reasons: the hypocrisy and the misplaced priorities. On the latter point, McCain hasn’t been “willing” to leave the campaign trail for anything, but all of a sudden, he’s ready to head back to his day job to tackle a coastal drilling bill that wouldn’t do any good anyway. Brad Johnson noted a handful of the bills McCain could have come back to the Hill to vote on, but decided he couldn’t be bothered.

– 4/26/07: Iraq War funding (passed 51-46)
– 6/7/07: Immigration reform (filibustered 34-61)
– 6/11/07: Condemning Attorney General Alberto Gonzales (filibustered 53-38)
– 7/26/07: Homeland Security (passed 85-8)
– 8/3/07: Wiretapping (FISA) authorization (passed 60-28)
– 9/27/07: Children’s health insurance (passed 69-30; vetoed)
– 2/6/08: Stimulus package with support for renewable energy (filibustered by one vote)
– 4/23/08: Fair Pay Act (filibustered 56-42)
– 5/22/08: The 21st-Century GI Bill (passed 75-22)
– 6/6/08: Global warming legislation (filibustered 48-36)

McCain wouldn’t leave the campaign trail for any of these votes, but he is willing to head back for a pointless debate on a pointless drilling initiative. It helps highlight just how serious McCain is about governing — or in this case, not. As always, Steve Benen chronicles the follies.

The long, hot summer is underway

John McCain gave a speech on nuclear proliferation today at the University of Denver and was heckled by protesters of the Iraq war. (Video below the jump)

He was interrupted three times.

His support of a hugely unpopular war, coupled with his fealty to a feckless, officious, draft-dodging, coke-snorting deserter who punked him hard in 2000 is hanging around his skinny, aged wattle and even the media can't, tho they try with all their might, foist him upon us.

We hate this war, and we hate George Bush and John McCain is too closely allied with both, and he is, inexplicably, on the wrong side of veterans issues.

And then there is the fact that he is either senile of deliberately lying his ass off about efforts to stop the spread of nuclear armaments.

“Many believe all we need to do to end the nuclear programs of hostile governments is have our president talk with leaders in Pyongyang and Tehran, as if we haven’t tried talking to these governments repeatedly over the past two decades.”

Say what?

They didn't get anywhere with North Korea until the let Christopher Hill go to Pyongyang and start talking.

And I have no idea where he got the notion that we have "tried to talk to" Iran! We have not had diplomatic relations with Iran since April of 1980!

Now, I could deconstruct his speech, but I don't have to. Jon Woflsthal, an actual non-proliferation expert (I'm just a cold war Brat) already has, and he did a better job than I could.

John McCain’s speech on nuclear weapons seems to adopt the narrowest of lenses in dealing with nuclear weapons. Moreover, his proposals – many of which might sound good – don’t match up with other things he has said on nuclear weapons, on Russia, on Iran and suggests he doesn’t really get the complexity of these issues. Lastly, the tone may be better, but many of the proposals—not to mention his language choices—are right out of George W. Bush’s play book. This may be a wolf in sheep’s clothing, but it is still a wolf.

1. He wants to work with Russia on arms control and tactical nuclear weapons, but he also wants to kick Russia out of the G-8. Not sure how you get them to play nice on nukes after you kick them in the teeth. Also, Bush adopted a loose standard on counting nuclear weapons and verification. Will McCain (who is now working with John Bolton – father of Bush arms control dogma) be any better?
2. I applaud his desire to get tactical nuclear weapons out of Europe, but if we pull nuclear weapons out of Turkey as Iran advances its nuclear program, they are not going to have increased confidence in NATO and the US. This speech, and the references to it, will send shock waves through Europe and and a McCain Administration would start in a hole.
3. He does not walk away from the new “reliable replacement warhead” being pitched by the Bush administration. Lots of wiggle room for him, left there on purpose, I would guess.
4. Why is only the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) going to review nuclear policy? Where are the experts on nonproliferation, diplomacy, history, etc? This is the same line the Bush administration gave. In May of 2000, standing in front of Secretary Kissinger and other republican heavy-weights, then-candidate Bush said he would reduce nuclear weapons to the lowest number consistent with U.S. security. Sound familiar? McCain’s statement is almost an exact quote. The JCS has set the current floor on reductions. The President sets the war guidance for the level of nuclear weapons, and leaving it to the JCS is a recipe for the status quo.
5. Did anyone else notice that McCain did not repudiate the policy of regime change? I know why Iran and North Korea want nuclear weapons. Reducing ours will not get them to change their course. Of course, singing “bomb bomb Iran” to the tune of “Barbara Ann” won’t do it either. Is McCain really suggesting cutting our nukes will lead others to reduce theirs? It’s the broader policy that needs changing, not just the number of nukes.
6. Coming out of left field (or from pander-ville) is the remark about international nuclear storage. It is possible that Russia might build a storage facility for countries in East Asia, but McCain seems to be suggesting some other country is going to accept our huge (the world’s largest) stock of spent fuel and that this might be a way to avoid opening the spent fuel repository in Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Talk about pandering. Who does he think is going to take our nuclear waste? Even if someone would take it off our hands, the stuff contains about 100,000 weapons worth of plutonium that must be dealt with. Does McCain really want to export that to a country poor enough to want into the nuclear waste storage business?
7. Either you are for the ban on nuclear testing or you are not. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is the most studied arms control agreement in history. It has been verifiable since the 1960s. McCain voted against it. To play the “let’s study it again” dance is too cute by half. If the President does not support it, it is not going to happen. Also, McCain seems to be suggesting we should re-open the agreement for new modifications. That is the fastest way to kill it. He also talks about limiting testing. We want to ban testing. We have more nuclear expertise than anyone – why we would want to make the world safe for others to test nuclear weapons is unclear. Obama and Clinton have said they are for the CTBT and plan to fight for its ratification. McCain has not. The rest of the world – including the states we need on our side to deal with Iran and North Korea – are embarrassed that we have not ratified it.

McCain’s speech is a feeble attempt to try to tie all Republicans and Democrats into the failures of the Bush administration nuclear policies. Before 2000, the US was on the right track. The regime needed work, but was sound – more states had given up nuclear weapons and weapon programs in the 1980s and 90s than had begun them. Now that track record lies in ashes – because of the Bush Administration approach, backed by a Republican Congress that killed the CTBT and sought to restrict funding for nuclear security efforts during 2000-2004. McCain is promising more of the same.

I admit that what I heard sent me to the same place - his speech was an attempt to spread the malicious, craven disregard for policy and process that define this administration over every administration from the advent of the cold war forward!

If he is lacking cognitive ability to process and analyze the reality, that is bad enough. If he is deliberately lying, that is worse. And can I just say that the spectacle of McCain, floundering desperately, is heartbreaking. I don't think I have winced this much in 20 years - since I watched my late grandfather trying to get the VCR to stop flashing 12:00.

Here is that video I promised. If this is what is in store for him on a regular basis, his famous temper is going to erupt sooner or later...probably sooner.

The Ugly American

aWol charged into the NATO summit like a bull in a china shop and immediately started embarrassing everyone capable of feeling shame.

What a schmuck.

First, he hijacked a press conference, cutting off questions and asking the Romanian President - who was hosting the press event - if he was ready to take a stroll along the waters edge.

"Just a moment," said a flabbergasted President Traian Basescu.

"Oh, you got..." Bush started, obviously astounded that it wasn't all about him.

"Just a moment," Basescu repeated.

"He's not through," Bush said, seemingly bemused.

Basescu, determined, went on "[T]he information I would like to add to refer to two delicate issues, issues that are visible for the Romanian public...

And by this point, I was curled in a fetal ball, feeling shame to the point of nausea.

And the summit wasn't even underway.

I checked the supply of Tums. Good thing I did, too, because I needed them in short order.

The summit was barely convened when he went off script and started whoring for membership for Georgia and Ukraine. "This is my last NATO summit," was his explanation for co-opting the proceedings and making salvaging something he can call a legacy a NATO priority. Even though France and Germany have both announced that they will block the move.

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, was described by some German officials as upset and even angry Wednesday, especially after she and Bush had had numerous conversations over the last two months about the issue.

Merkel had thought that a compromise solution was in the works, so that Washington would support a warm statement welcoming the interest of Ukraine and Georgia in NATO and encouraging both countries to work toward a membership plan in time for NATO's 60th anniversary summit meeting next year in Berlin.

Germany and France believe that since neither Ukraine nor Georgia are stable enough to enter the program now, a membership plan would be an unnecessary blow at Russia, which firmly opposes the move.

In fact, senior diplomats in Bucharest said, President Vladimir Putin, who is scheduled to come to his first and last NATO summit meeting on Friday, has threatened to cancel the visit if the two former Soviet states enter the membership program.

Merkel visited Moscow on March 8 and met with Putin and his successor, Dmitri Medvedev, who will take over as president in May, and told them that Russia would not be allowed a veto over NATO membership.

Nevertheless, a senior German diplomat, Wolfgang Ischinger, the German ambassador to London, said that a MAP offer to a divided Ukraine could destabilize the new government there, and that not enough diplomacy had taken place beforehand with Russia.

The hubris and arrogance Bush brought to the proceedings and put on prominent display are unprecedented. And an affront to every civilized American with any sense of protocol or diplomacy.

Can it be January now?

The Nightowl Newswrap

More of this, please: Congress has rejected President Bush's veto of a bill protecting doctors from Medicare rate cut. Bush vetoed the bill earlier Tuesday. He says he supports rescinding the pay cut but objects to financing the plan largely by reducing spending on private health plans serving the elderly and disabled. First the House voted to override the veto, 383-41. Later, the Senate voted 70-26 to override.

Not even Ron Paul voted "nay!" The House of Representatives voted Tuesday to punish Myanmar's brutal ruling regime "where it hurts - in the wallet," by freezing assets of political and military leaders there and banning the importation of rubies from that country into the U.S. The unanimous vote sent the bill back to the Senate, which voted last year to also bar timber from Myanmar, also known as Burma. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman said the legislation would put financial pressure on a corrupt regime that failed to adequately help its citizens recover from a cyclone and famously put down democracy demonstrations by Buddhist monks last year. "The legislation before the House today hits the regime where it hurts - in the wallet," Berman, a Democrat, told the House. "By blocking the import of Burmese gems into the United States and expanding financial sanctions, the legislation will take hundreds of millions of dollars out of the pockets of the regime each year."

Exactly what we don't need, redux: Russia announced Monday that it is sending warships to patrol Arctic waters for the first time since the breakup of the Soviet Union - the latest move to increase the country's global military presence. Patrols by the Northern Fleet's Severomorsk submarine destroyer and Marshal Ustinov missile cruiser will begin Thursday, Navy spokesman Igor Dygalo said. Russia began sending aircraft carriers to the Mediterranean Sea in December and resumed long-range bomber patrols in August. "We have been talking for a long time about widening our activity in the Arctic," Dygalo said. "There is nothing aggressive in it - it is in the interests of security." Former President Vladimir Putin expanded Russian military patrols and Dmitry Medvedev, who succeeded Putin in May, appears to be maintaining that course. Moscow-based military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said security was not Russia's primary motivation in sending the Navy ships to the Arctic. "This is flag-waving and that's basically it," Felgenhauer said. "Sending a couple of patrol boats to the Arctic won't change anything."

Another person that the Bush Administration can't find and bring to justice: A message purported to be from the fugitive deputy of executed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein has called on insurgents to make a final push against US forces. The message attributed to Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri urged Iraqi fighters to "make this year... decisive for victory". The message also called on US President George W Bush to "come clean about the scale of US losses". Ibrahim is the most senior member of Saddam Hussein's regime still at large. The message, aired by Dubai-based satellite broadcaster Al-Arabiya and reported by the AFP news agency, urged Iraqi insurgents to "strike the enemy everywhere". Not that it would matter if they caught him. Remember how catching Saddam would end the war? Remember how killing Zarqawi would end the war?

Fighting between the PKK and the Turks: Two Turkish soldiers and three Kurdish rebels have died in clashes in south-eastern Turkey, near the border with Iraq, security officials say. The fighting took place on Sunday during an operation against the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Sirnak province, the Turkish officials said. Turkey has launched repeated air and land attacks in the region, targeting PKK rebels based in northern Iraq. The PKK has been fighting for Kurdish self-rule since 1984. A PKK spokeswoman, Sozdar Avesta, has demanded a ceasefire in the Mount Ararat area, further north, where the PKK is holding three German tourists hostage. She said "the PKK is ready to release the three German tourists on condition that Turkey halts its military attacks in the area where they were captured". They were snatched last Wednesday. The hostages were being held in protest at German pressure on PKK supporters in Germany, she said, adding: "We urge the German government to undertake a new policy towards the Kurds".

Is GM going to collapse altogether? General Motors Corp. said Tuesday it will lay off salaried workers, cut truck production, suspend its dividend and borrow $2 billion to $3 billion to weather a severe downturn in the U.S. market. GM said the moves will raise $15 billion to help cover losses and turn around its North American operations, including $10 billion from internal cost-cutting and $5 billion from selling some assets and borrowing against others. “In short, our plan is not a plan to survive. It is a plan to win,” GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner said in a broadcast to employees.

Why the economy is going to be a bigger issue by Election Day: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the fragile economy is facing "numerous difficulties" despite the Fed's aggressive interest rate reductions and other fortifying steps. At the same time, Bernanke, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, sounded another warning that rising prices for energy and food are elevating inflation risks. This problem looms even as officials try to cope with persistent strains in financial markets, rising joblessness and housing problems. The situation, he said, poses "significant challenges" for Fed policymakers as they try to chart the best course for keeping the economy growing, while making sure inflation doesn't dangerously flare up. All the economy's problems, including slumping home values, which threaten to make people feel less wealthy and less inclined to spend in the months ahead, represent "significant downside risks" to economic growth. Over the rest of this year, the economy will grow "appreciably below its trend rate" mostly because of continued weakness in housing markets, high energy prices and tight credit conditions.

Shades of the Great Depression and It's a Wonderful Life: Police were called Tuesday to tame an angry crowd of IndyMac Bank customers trying to pull money from their accounts on Day 2 of a federal bank takeover. At least three police squad cars showed up as tension mounted outside a branch in suburban Encino. Customers were warned against becoming unruly but no arrests were reported. "I've already lost three nights of sleep and three days of eating, now I'm done," customer Joan Rubin said as she sat in a beach chair on the sidewalk, waiting for her turn to empty her account. "It's a very sad day in America," she said. Rubin, 52, said she was drawn to IndyMac Bank about 18 months ago by high, well-advertised interest rates and friendly service close to home. Federal regulators seized IndyMac on Friday. It was reopened Monday under the control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Deposits to $100,000 are fully insured by the FDIC.

Manson follower to stay in prison: The state Board of Parole Hearings on Tuesday denied compassionate release for convicted killer and Charles Manson follower Susan Atkins, who is dying of brain cancer. After listening to 90 minutes of testimony on Tuesday from people who both supported and opposed Atkins release, then came back quickly with a denial. Eighteen of the 23 people who spoke at the board's hearing room near the Capitol in Sacramento implored the panel to allow Atkins, who has brain cancer and has been told she has six months to live, to go home to die. "Susan has served a life sentence," said Virginia Seals, Atkins' sister-in-law. "This is about her death." Similar comments came from other family members and friends, who were each given five minutes to speak to the panel. But others, including relatives of victims she killed in the 1960s, insisted that Atkins should serve out her life prison sentence. "You'll hear various perspectives today, but you'll hear nothing from the nine people in their graves who died horrendous deaths at the hands of Susan Atkins," said Anthony Di Maria, nephew of slaying victim Jay Sebring.