Obama will take the fight to McCain

Barack Obama is going to challenge McCain in fourteen states that bu$h carried in 2004, with the intent not just of winning the White House, but of helping down-ticket races too. Here in red-state America, we are thrilled by the news.

“Texas is a great example where we might not be able to win the state, but we want to pay a lot of attention to it,” Hildebrand said. “It’s one of the most important redistricting opportunities in the country.”

Texas Democrats are five seats away in each chamber from control of the state Legislature, which will redraw congressional districts after the 2010 census.

In Wyoming, Democrat Gary Trauner, running for the state’s sole congressional seat, lost narrowly against an incumbent in 2006 and is now seeking an open seat.

“If we can register more Democrats, if we can increase the Democratic performance and turnout, maybe we can pick up a congressional seat,” Hildebrand said.

Hildebrand’s plans underscore the unusual scope and ambition of Obama’s campaign, which can relatively cheaply extend its massive volunteer and technological resources into states which won’t necessarily produce electoral votes.

The three dozen campaign offices Obama had open in Texas during the primary were inundated with volunteer manpower. They had more volunteers than they knew what to do with. Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod, reportedly told donors in Houston that he would send 15 staffers to Texas, and the campaign has committed to having staff on the ground in all 50 states.


The McShameless campaign (he was a POW, you know) is trying to spin the fact that Obama is challenging him on his own turf as a sign of weakness on the part of Obama's candidacy. "It’s revealing that Barack Obama has now been forced to expand the states on his map because he’s so weak in traditional Democratic targets such as West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee and Florida, not to mention his ongoing problems in Pennsylvania and Ohio,” said McCain spokesman Brian Rogers.

But anyone with more than three firing neurons recognized McCain's desperate spin as exactly that - desperate spin.

If Obama is successful in November, he will have blazed the trail for a powerful Democratic majority. In the last week, he has sent out fundraising emails on behalf of the DCCC and the DSCC and reminded the recipients that it is going to take more than a new president to affect change. A “new President alone isn't enough,” Obama wrote in a message sent to the DSCC’s email list. “I've served long enough in the U.S. Senate to know that Washington must change, and I also know that big changes don't happen without big Senate majorities - and right now, Democrats occupy only 49 seats. This November, we have a chance to create a Democratic Senate majority like we haven't seen in decades - but it won't happen on its own,” he wrote.

Hildebrand and Obama campaign manager David Plouffe have, in recent days, outlined the shape of the campaign. In an interview with Politico, Hildebrand said Obama would focus largely on 14 states George W. Bush won in 2004, plus one state Kerry won in 2004: New Hampshire, where Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton stage their first joint event Friday.

“We’re going to have to play hard in New Hampshire — we completely recognize that,” Hildebrand said.

Hildebrand also said Obama would campaign in part of Nebraska, which distributes its electoral votes to the winner of each individual congressional district.

“We’re going to go in and play Nebraska 2, which is Omaha and surrounding [areas], in the hopes that we can pick up that one electoral vote,” he said.

A presentation by Plouffe to donors, and Obama’s own early advertising expenditures, add three more to that list of states to defend: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

In an interview, Hildebrand listed states in order of the margin by which Bush carried them: The closest four — Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada — he said, would see “a ton of attention.”

But he said Obama would campaign hard in 10 more states, with the candidate and his top surrogates spending time on the ground and his campaign spending money in the air. Those states are Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Georgia and Alaska.

I firmly believe that Obama can take Missouri. Between the solidly Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City, and the folks in the rural, outstate areas that have been hurt by republican policies.

If Obama wants to win Missouri, I know something he can do that will help him in not one, but two states. If he makes an appearance in St. Joseph, Missouri he could pack the stadium at Missouri Western with people from the Missouri 06 and the Kansas 02. An appearance in the heart of the 6th, just across the river from Kansas and the 2nd would help Nancy Boyda retain her seat in the KS-02 and it would help Kay Barnes unseat Sam Graves in the MO-06. One appearance and rally in the 6th could give Obama one more Democratic House member and help retain one more.

Some have suggested that Obama's embrace of the 50 state strategy is a ruse, intended to make McCain spend money in states that ought to be gimmes that Obama can't win anyway, but Hildebrand dismissed that notion out of hand. “We’re going in to win those states,” he said. “We’re not going in to make McCain have to pay attention to them. We’re going in to win. The result of that is he’s going to have to pay serious attention to them where he otherwise might not have to.”

Paying attention to those of us in flyover country is a damned good place to start if he wants to be the president of all Americans. Now those of us who have been overlooked and ignored for far too long have one more teeny, tiny request...will someone please drag the DLC out behind the barn and drive a stake through it's nasty, black little heart, then throw the corpse on a burning pyre?

Today is "527" Awareness Day

In honor of the date, here is why it is important to know what a 527 group is. According to OpenSecrets.org a 527 is:

A tax-exempt group organized under section 527 of the Internal Revenue Code to raise money for political activities including voter mobilization efforts, issue advocacy and the like. Currently, the FEC only requires a 527 group to file regular disclosure reports if it is a political party or political action committee (PAC) that engages in either activities expressly advocating the election or defeat of a federal candidate, or in electioneering communications. Otherwise, it must file either with the government of the state in which it is located or the Internal Revenue Service. Many 527s run by special interest groups raise unlimited "soft money," which they use for voter mobilization and certain types of issue advocacy, but not for efforts that expressly advocate the election or defeat of a federal candidate or amount to electioneering communications.

The largest 527 is the Service Employees International Union, which dwarfs other 527s. 527s range in size from massive to very small and targeted towards certain local issues, such as "Better Libraries for Palo Alto." Because 527 organizations do not spend their money directly on a candidate and cannot advocate the election or defeat of any candidate for federal elective office they are outside of the regulation by the Federal Election Commission.


The following chart shows how important 527s are in any election cycle:



The Federal Election Commission revealed numerous instances where 527s were used illegally in the 2004 Presidential Election. As we enter the 2008 Presidential Election cycle, the FEC currently has 5 vacant seats and the Bush Administration has been scrambling to find anyone who is can be confirmed by the Senate, recently being forced to withdraw Hans von Spakovsky from consideration.

It is very likely a deliberate move to keep a regulatory body from doing its job during a contentious election cycle. Without the FEC being fully staffed in order to do its job, there is a strong possibility that multiple 527s could break the law this year and get away with it.

Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) have been working this year to highlight what the implications of having unregulated 527s will be in this election election cycle.

Having a dysfunctional FEC is directly to the benefit of Senator John McCain's campaign:

A federal district court judge Wednesday threw out, for now, a Democratic National Committee lawsuit to force the FEC to investigate last year's withdrawal of a request by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., for federal matching funds to support his presidential campaign.

The FEC has lacked a quorum to rule on whether McCain gave up his right to withdraw from the public campaign finance program by accepting a loan tied to receipt of matching funds. The DNC lawsuit sought to open the door for the party committee to sue the McCain campaign directly to force it to stop spending or face hefty fines.

Democrats had hoped the court would determine that the FEC, which has just two commissioners due to a political impasse in the Senate, cannot act on McCain's request.

But U.S. District Judge John Bates dismissed the suit because the DNC did not show cause to ignore a law giving the FEC 120 days to act before seeking action in court.

The DNC can file again in late June, which a spokeswoman said the party will do.

CREW has formed "Fix the FEC" and is attempting to highlight what is wrong with the FEC:

...Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) launched a new website, FixtheFEC.org, designed to change that. FixtheFEC.org was created to prompt Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to allow for a vote on federal election commissioners that can get the FEC back to policing federal elections business. Currently, the FEC is unable to perform its function, to administer and enforce campaign finance laws.

Enjoy 527 Awareness Day, a completely fictitious day made up just this morning.

So much for the horse race, let's look at track conditions

All right Democrats. It is time to get our collective act together and put the past behind us. It isn't about anyones hurt feelings. I voted for Hillary in the primary and one of the checks I wrote this primary season was to her campaign. But I can read the tea leaves, and Obama is going to be the nominee.

So take the long weekend to lick your wounds, and when Tuesday rolls around, start with mending fences. It is time to get over yourself. It isn't about you, or me, or even the candidates. It is about electing a Democrat and saving the Supreme Court.

Looked at through that lens, Obama is perfectly suited for the job, because he was a Constitutional Law professor. That is hugely important with a Supreme Court that has a liberal wing that is as chronologically advanced as our liberal justices are. Especially with Roberts as Chief. Ugh...


McClatchy has an article on the importance of Missouri this fall. Obama carried the state - narrowly - on Super Tuesday - because of St. Louis and Kansas City. In the outstate areas, Hillary is the overwhelming choice. At the State Democratic Convention I saw Hillbillies for Hillary t-shirts, and my father in law, who has voted in the primary for the guy who eventually won the White House since 1980 is a huge Hillary Clinton supporter. I have been telling everyone since September, when we went to the country for bow season, that she is the outstate favorite.

Obama - and the state and national party apparatus - have challenges in this bellwether state - but they can be overcome with grassroots organization, and most importantly - presence. When Missouri voters in outstate areas are asked about Obama and the response ranges from

"I feel like I just don't know him yet."

to

"I can't vote Republican. I'll either vote for Obama or not vote. If it were today, I would not vote. There's still six months . ... He's gonna' have to convince me. I haven't seen it yet."

Our mission is clearly defined. Convince voters. I spoke to my father in law before the state convention and asked him if there was anything he wanted me to impart to the leaders of the party. He said I should tell them to make their presence known, that no one was going to vote for them if they didn't bother to ask.

So here is how Obama wins in Missouri, and helps deliver the Missouri Sixth congressional seat to Kay Barnes, the Democrat opposing the odious Sam "96%" Graves, (as in he votes the way aWol wants him to 96% 0f the time), and takes a congressional enemy off the chessboard.

It's politics 101. What Howard Dean did for the nation with the brilliant 50 State Strategy, the Obama campaign and the Democratic Party (national and state need to get their act together and combine resources for this) need to do in Missouri. Call it a 114 County Strategy.

Get someone on the ground in every county - it can be as simple as a dedicated cell phone and someone willing to answer and return calls, and store yard signs, bumper stickers, lapel pins and campaign literature in their garage or basement and pass it out when people ask for it, and put an add in every county paper every single week.

If Obama campaigns hard in Kansas City, St. Louis, and the Sixth Congressional District...He wins. KC and StL are reliably Democratic. The Sixth is vulnerable and due to flip. The Sixth is also huge in area - the population isn't dense, but the people aren't either. They know that republican policies have damaged them economically and sent their kids to fight and die in a senseless conflict that should never have been undertaken. A couple of stops in St. Joseph would pull supporters for both Kay Barnes and Representative Nancy Boyda of the KS 02 and fill the stadium at Missouri Western. Do the same thing in Hannibal and bolster democratic turnout among rural voters in three states. What's not to love about this plan?

Now the Democratic Party needs to get their act together and start plotting strategy. Ask any veteran and they will tell you - It is always - always - a bad idea to cede the hill country in any fight.


[Crossposted from Show Me Progress]