SOFA shopping continues...

On Friday Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki said that negotiations with the United States on a long-term security pact have come to loggerheads, strongly indicating that an Iraqi-U.S. strategic pact may not see the light of day before the aWol bu$h (mal)administration draws to a merciful end in January. "We have reached an impasse, because when we opened these negotiations we did not realize that the U.S. demands would so deeply affect Iraqi sovereignty and that is something we can never accept," Maliki told Jordanian newspaper editors during a visit to Amman.

Since March, the US and Iraqi governments have been "secretly" negotiating a long-term agreement that would provide a legal basis to define the United States role for the occupation of Iraq to continue after the current U.N. mandate expires on 31 December. "We can't extend the U.S. forces permission to arrest Iraqis or to undertake the responsibility of fighting terrorism in an independent way, or to keep Iraqi skies and waters open for themselves whenever they want," Maliki said in his first detailed comments on the negotiations. "One of the important issues that the U.S. is asking for is immunity for its soldiers and those contracting with it. We reject this totally," he added. (The next time some dipshit compares the occupation of Iraq with our forces in Korea, Japan, Germany, etc...ask them how many mercenaries we have running around shooting up those countries willy-nilly, murdering civilians at traffic roundabouts and be prepared for a blank stare.)

Back in November it was announced that bu$h and Maliki intended to finalize the agreement by the end of July of this year, shooting for an endorsement by the 275 member Iraqi parliament by years end.

That, however, looks unlikely.


Iraqi officials have begun to raise their voices in protest to the American draft proposals, on the grounds that the Americans were attempting to walk all over Iraqi sovereignty and "consolidate the occupation" - making explicit the implication that an agreement was unlikely before we have a different president.


Iraqi sources in Amman told the Middle East Times that Maliki assured leaders of the large Iraqi community in the Jordanian capital that his government would not accept a pact that in any way threatens Iraqi sovereignty. Sources close to the Prime Minister told the Middle East Times that Maliki told them in a meeting in Amman that the government has turned down four U.S. drafts proposed since March, adding it will take time before arriving at an agreement which would not cement U.S. presence, and getting it endorsed through parliament. Those same sources said that Maliki assured leaders of the large Iraqi community in the Jordanian capital that his government would not accept a pact that in any way threatens Iraqi sovereignty.

The Iraqi prime minister's remarks sharply contrasted with Bush's insistence, during a visit to Germany this week, that he was confident that differences would be ironed out and at reaching a strategic deal with Iraq.

Iraqi lawmakers have said they were facing U.S. pressure to meet deadlines on core issues regarding the status of their country that should take months to negotiate, particularly as the country is still in a state of war and with the large presence of the 150,000-strong U.S. troops currently there.

Last week, a majority of Iraq's parliament wrote to the U.S. Congress rejecting a long-term pact with America if it excludes a commitment to withdraw U.S. forces.

"The majority of Iraqi representatives strongly reject any military-security, economic, commercial, agricultural, investment or political agreement with the United States that is not linked to clear mechanisms obligating the occupying American military forces to fully withdraw from Iraq," the letter to Congress said.

Iraqi lawmakers said Baghdad had turned down two U.S. drafts this week alone, after a "toned-down version" with ambiguous wording allows the U.S. military free access to Iraqi bases and fails to set a time limit.

U.S. officials have insisted that Washington was not seeking "permanent bases" nor planning to use Iraq as a launching pad to attack neighboring countries, such as Iran and Syria.

Sources close to the negotiations have revealed that the rejected U.S. drafts on using Iraqi military bases excluded a time limit on access to the bases to "conduct military operations in Iraq and to detain individuals when necessary for imperative reasons of security." The authorization for these operations was identified as "temporary."

On immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts, the latest draft dropped the protection of civilian security contractors and confined immunity to U.S. military personnel only.

Iraqis strongly oppose the presence of tens of thousands of foreign private security contractors, after last year's killing of 17 Iraqis in Baghdad by Blackwater, a U.S. firm protecting American officials in Iraq.

Lawmakers, however, are also opposing immunity for U.S. troops and have vowed not to sign any deal that would protect the soldiers from suspected war crimes.

The negotiations will continue "until an agreement is reached" but Iraqi officials have made it abundantly clear that they will not rush headlong into the arms of the Americans just so political deadlines can be met in Washington. Especially if the agreement doesn't offer safeguards to Iraqi sovereignty and an end to occupation.

And by the way - don't go thinking that Sadr is beat down and gone back to his video game addiction. On Friday, he announced the formation of a new armed group to fight U.S. forces in Iraq. "The resistance will be carried out exclusively by a special group which I will announce later," Sadr said in a statement read out at a mosque in the Iraqi Shiite town of Kufa. "We will keep resisting the occupier until liberation or martyrdom."

Petraeus predicts September draw-down in Iraq

Of course he does! He is a political hack and a water-carrier for the republican warmongers and chickenhawks and never let anyone tell you otherwise!

Testifying before the Senate Armed Services committee this morning, he told the panel "My sense is that I will be able to make a recommendation at that time for some further reductions." Then he hastened to add that he didn't want to imply that he had anything specific in mind, no particular brigade or combat formation has been decided on. ''But I do believe there will be certain assets that, as we are already looking at the picture right now, we'll be able to recommend can be either redeployed or not deployed to the theater in the fall,'' he said, while repeating his past caution that conditions on the ground could change. Sen. Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, responded: ''That's good news to most of us.''

(Yeah Carl - it's real good news that the four-star hack is quietly influencing this upcoming presidential election, just like he did the last one. Who can forget that editorial in the Washington Post that touted non-existent progress and success of aWol's pet war - six weeks before the election? The answer to that question, by the way, is "very few" because we won't let them!)

But the meddling doesn't stop with vague suggestions of possible troop withdrawals to commence six weeks before the election. The upcoming Iraqi parliamentary elections are being pushed back to November from October.

You see, it simply wouldn't do to have all that effort to sway influence to McCain offset by Sadr's bloc waltzing to victory the following month, so the Iraqi elections have to be pushed back to after the U.S. presidential election.

So are you feeling manipulated yet? And if not, why not?

The deadliest month since September drew to a close yesterday

The United States lost 49 Soldiers and Marines in the quagmire in Iraq during the month of April. Five were lost on the final day alone. Twenty-three fell in Baghdad, where the U.S. military has been engaged in close, and fierce, street-to-street fighting with Shi'ite militiamen, most of whom are allied with the Jaish al Mahdi, the militia that is (ostensibly) affiliated with cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who has vowed resistance so long as the occupiers remain on Iraqi soil. Two Marines were killed in Anbar - signifying that the "Awakening Concils" might be getting a little sleepy. It was the first loss of life of American service personnel in Anbar since November.

Tehseen Sheikhly, a spokesman for Baghdad security plan, said that at least 925 people were killed in Sadr City firefights since the crackdowns started late March.

But as is the case in any war, civilians bear the brunt in Iraq, too.

According to data collected by Iraq's interior, health and defence ministries and made available to AFP, 966 civilians were killed in April, followed by 69 policemen and 38 soldiers.

The death toll in April is marginally lower than in March which saw 1,082 Iraqis killed.

"The death toll in April is mainly driven by fighting between (Shiite) militants and security forces," a security official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Combined figures obtained by AFP from the three ministries showed that 1,745 civilians were wounded in the violence that ravaged the country, followed by 159 policemen and 104 soldiers.

The April toll maintains the trend of high violence that reversed, mainly since March, a gradually declining trend of violence seen from June last year and follows 721 killed in February, 541 in January, 568 in December, 606 in November, 887 in October, 917 in September and 1,856 in August.

It is obvious that either Sadr has suspended his cease fire order, or he has lost control of his militia. The U.S. military said that the militia fighters fire at American and Iraqi soldiers from rooftops, alleyways, and dwellings, and that firefights erupt as a result, and when that happens, civilians get killed in the crossfire.

Maliki held a press conference on Wednesday, and he did not disappoint in the hyperbole department. He accused the Sadrist militia fighters of using civilians as human shields, as Saddam Hussein infamously did with westerners caught in Iraq before the first gulf war. "Criminals and lawless gangs are using human shields in Sadr City ... They are following the steps of the Baathist regime," Maliki told a press conference. "They are trying to gain sympathy but they are using the lies and the values of the former regime," he said, referring to executed dictator Saddam Hussein.

Maliki went on to vow that the Mahdi Army would be disbanded, along wioth Sunni militant groups, especially al Qaeda. "We will not allow scavengers in Iraq. The suffering will not be long in Sadr City. We will save our brothers," he said. He also accused the militias of in effect forcing a quarantine of fear on Sadr city. "I do not know how those people use the (Shiite religious) names we respect like Mahdi and Sadr," he said.

Maliki was referring to Muqtada al-Sadr's father, Grand Ayatollah Mohamed Sadeq al-Sadr, murdered - and martyred - in February 1999 by the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein, along with two of his sons and their driver in a machine gun ambush as they entered a traffic roundabout. At the time his father and brothers were martyred, Muqtada was a teenager with little religious training and an addiction to video games.

The next day, he was a religious leader, and now he is trying to carve a place for himself - and his father's legacy in the new Iraq. And that legacy is steeped in Iraqi nationalism and populism. He blamed both the Baathist regime and American-led sanctions for the suffering of Iraqi civilians.

The increased violence led Defense Secretary Robert Gates to admit on Tuesday that a seven-month lull in the deaths of U.S. troops has come to an end. He blamed the increased violence and loss of life on militias who bombarded the Green Zone with ordnance.

The rise in troop deaths, coinciding as it does with the withdrawal of the Surge™ troops has many officials hand-wringing over the ability of Iraqi and American forces to sustain the security gains that the supporters and apologists for the Surge™ insist were made.

And even though we called this immediately when they first started peddling the troop buildup, and we have been right at every step along the way, we do not gloat "I told you so" when what we are right about involved the demise of men and women we consider to be our brothers and sisters. Instead, we offer the fallen our most crisp salute, and the people who started this unholy clusterfuck a salute of the one-finger variety.

Sadr Aide Assassinated

Iraqi police have imposed a curfew for the Shi'ite holy city of Najaf after a senior aide to Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr was gunned down today in the nearby city of Kufa as he drove away from the mosque after Friday prayers.

Riyadh al-Nouri managed the offices of Sadr's organization in Najaf, and was also Sadr's brother-in-law. The death was confirmed by a policeman and one of Mr. al-Nouri's employees, but both men spoke on condition of anonymity.

Iraqi security forces moved quickly to stem the inevitable tide of retaliation. A curfew was imposed, shops were closed, people were ordered off the streets and roadblocks were quickly erected.

Twas ever thus that conflict lurks just below the surface, and there is most certainly intrasectarian strife on the horizon. Remember that an aide to Sadr rival Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani was killed last summer, stabbed in his office.

The looming question is - will this be the spark that sets it off? When Sadr reemerged last May, he did so wearing a funeral shroud, not merely signifying his willingness to be martyred, but broadcasting the fact that he expects he will be killed. His followers have donned shrouds themselves, displaying solidarity and a willingness to die for their beliefs.

BREAKING: Sadr orders fighters to stand down, but can he deliver?

Earlier today, Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his militia to stand down, and the Iraqi government hailed it as a breakthrough.

We want the Iraqi people to stop this bloodshed and maintain Iraq's independence and stability," al-Sadr said in a statement released on Sunday.

"For that we have decided to withdraw [al-Sadr's Mahdi Army] from the streets of Basra and all other provinces."

At least 270 people have reportedly died since an Iraqi military crackdown in Basra sparked fighting across the country.

So...within hours, we will know precisely just how much much influence he retains over the fighting force.

US Troops Forced To Bail Out Iraqi Army

This is just pathetic and sad. Millions and millions have been spent--countless man hours as well--trying to train these forces to fight. And they have to call in airstrikes and US troops because they are so poorly led and equipped that they can't fight their way through.

(CBS/AP) U.S. warplanes bombed sites in the southern Iraqi city of Basra overnight, targeting Shiite militia members, a British military spokesman said Friday.

The aerial bombardment is a sign of the difficulty Iraqi forces have had clearing the crucial oil city of armed militias that, until less than a week ago, ran Basra unchecked - most notably by radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army.

Maj. Tom Holloway, the spokesman based at the British military installation at Basra's airport, said Friday that coalition aircraft had bombed sites twice overnight, "due to engagements on the ground."

Also, U.S. forces seemed to be taking the lead in the fight in eastern Baghdad's Shiite stronghold of Sadr City, reports the Washington Post. The newspaper reports that U.S. armored vehicles battled Mahdi Army fighters Thursday and that Iraqi army and police appeared to stay mostly to the outskirts of the area.

It was the first time coalition forces became directly involved in the vicious clashes in Basra that started when thousands of Iraqi troops poured into the town on the orders of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Coalition jets have been patrolling the skies for three days over Basra, but had not fired any weapons.

The Iraqi forces' mission was to wrest control of the city - which is strategically crucial because of its location near the Iranian border and financially vital since 80 percent of Iraq's oil reserves are located in the area and processed through Basra's pipelines.

Those are US assets pulled out of the fight elsewhere to bail out the Iraqis, who are outgunned and outmatched by the Mahdi Army. Is Basra the next Fallujah? Do we have to destroy the city in order to save it?

More importantly, when are people going to realize that a certain US Vice President's trip to the region is what started all of this? He either gave the go ahead or told al-Maliki to clean up Basra so that they could keep Sadr and his followers from gaining more seats in the Iraqi parliament in the next round of elections.

Muhannad Fala'ah / Getty Images
BAGHDAD, IRAQ - MARCH 27: Smoke rises after a mortar attack as U.S helicopters fly on March 27, 2008 at the Green Zone area in Baghdad, Iraq. The Green Zone was also attacked by insurgents on Sunday March 23 after which the most senior US general in Iraq announced he had evidence that Tehran had trained, funded and equipped the insurgents who had initiated the attack. There has so far been no response from Iran to these accusations.

Go here to see Fred Kagan put his foot in his considerably large mouth. Kagan says that we have to agree that the Iraq Civil War is now over and that we have to see things his way before we can have a polite and reasoned conversation about the war. Kagan's "basis of reality" starts and ends with his delusions about a war he has proven time and again that he knows nothing about. "To do a Kagan" should be in the lexicon when someone is caught lying about a subject in which they claim to have broad expertise. As in your mechanic telling you it's a bad muffler when your transmission falls out of your car and hits the floor.

Anyone who pays him, hires him, or asks him for his opinion might as well consult their horoscope and go see a palm reader to get the same kind of wisdom.

Fuck off, Kagan. Your mouth writes checks your bloated ass can't cash when it comes to opining about this war.

UPDATE I - PALE RIDER

Phillip Carter makes this excellent observation at Intel Dump on recent affairs:

Oh yeah, and another thing. Every time you think of the "adviser model" for Iraq, you should think of this operation in Basra. Because this is the end result of the U.S. advisory effort to date -- which has focused on creating well-trained and equipped units at the tactical level, but has basically failed at the national, strategic level. The leaders of the Iraqi security forces at the ministry level are as bad as they ever were. And the national government is about as bad. Training and advising Iraqi units at the brigade level and below is well and good. But if you fail to properly shape the national command structure, you're handing those units over to leaders who will misuse them.

Mr. Carter is another one of those people who explains this stuff better than I ever could.

UPDATE II - PALE RIDER

Colonel Patrick Lang is also one of those people who can be looked to for wisdom on these matters. I mean, who are you going to go to for information? Colonel Lang? Or Uncle Jimbo? Please.

When Joe Lieberman corrected McCain's "senior moment" in Jordan, he had McCain say that the Iranians were training "extremists," not "alkaydah" (sic). The two of them and Graham had just come from Iraq, so I guess Joe had gotten the word there that the baddies (Jeish al-mahdi) were going to be referred to as "extremists." McCain just couldn't keep it straight. Hmmm. The enemy is who? Say it again...

It is clear that US policy is to back Maliki/Dawa/ISCI/Badr Corps (Iraqi Forces) against Moqtada al-Sadr and his "army" of "shirtless ones." Fine. Why not? I guess the US has no choice but to back someone.

I suppose that the powers that be will shift the Main Supply Route (MSR) to the west (Nasiriyah) if the Basra area becomes too obstructed.

My problem with the present course of events is the ruthlessness of the propaganda campaign being successfully waged by the Bush Administration. The president has succeeded in "framing" the discussion in such a way that Maliki and his assembly of Badr Corps militias are represented as being the equivalent of George Washington suppressing the Whiskey Rebellion. The noble Maliki is portrayed as motivated by a selfless desire for "national" unity. The MSM has re-transmitted that idea without serious question.

In fact he is merely acting on behalf of an emerging alignment of pro-Iranian forces in Iraq that have successfully pulled the wool over American eyes.

You may have noticed that no Kurdish units of the "Iraqi Forces" have been brought down from the north for this "fandango." You may also have noticed that our Concerned Local Citizens/Sons of Iraq (read Sunni tribal Arab auxiliaries) are not involved. Show me some engaged units in this that are not Shia.

They don't seem to fight so well, these "Iraqi Forces " at Basra. We have spent a lot of time and money on these people. They are not making much progress at Basra. I used to know Montagnard Special Commando Unit troops who fought better than this, but, then, they were well led by some wonderful Special Forces sergeants and junior officers.

This is the best I can do for rounding up various opinions to explain what's going on. It would appear that Iraq has begun to enter a new phase, one that will culminate in the collapse or removal of al-Maliki and much of his form of "Federalism."

What will be Muqtada al-Sadr's next move?

Three months ago, Iraqi nationalist and Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his 60,000 strong Mahdi Army to stand down for six months and not attack American forces during that time. Sectarian violence and American casualties have both dropped as a result of the stand down. In the intervening time not much has been heard from him.

Last week he issued a vehemently anti-American statement. "Get out of our land," he wrote on Friday. "We don't need you or your armies, the armies of darkness; not your airplanes, tanks, policies, meddling, democracy, fake freedom." Still, he told his increasingly impatient followers to continue to stand down, and take no actions beyond praying in a Mosque for two hours after sundown.

Now, American forces and Iraqis alike await with bated breath his next move. He stands at something of a precipice. What he does next could fundamentally alter his relationship with his followers, who are increasingly impatient with the arming of their Sunni rivals by American forces, as well as with other Iraqi leaders.

From McClatchy:

Nevertheless, said Hazem al Araji, an aide to Sadr, the Mahdi Army ceasefire is likely to extend beyond the planned six months. While this would please U.S. commanders and many Iraqis, it would bolster Sadr only if his followers agree that they're likely to gain more by keeping their weapons in their closets than they are by pulling them out again.

"There is an entity in the Sadr trend that doesn't want the freeze," said Sheik Naza al Timini, a Sadr cleric in the Shiite holy city of Karbala, south of Baghdad. "They said, 'We have the right to use violence and force.' We always hope for good, and we hope that the decision of Sayed Muqtada will be for the best of Iraq, but after he gives his final decision about the future of the Mahdi Army, many, I believe, will change their ideology and choose to leave the Sadr trend."

"What he did was basically pull the rug out — 'You can continue acting as the mafia, as the mob, but not in my name,' " said Peter Harling, a Sadr expert at the International Crisis Group. "It worked remarkably well, but I don't know how sustainable this can be. (His followers) appear extremely frustrated, willing to comply with Muqtada's decision, but not for very long."

If Sadr should recant on the ceasefire - or lose control of his Mahdi Army to rebellious commanders - the result would likely be a return to sectarian violence, and that would make it difficult for the United States to continue drawing down forces to pre-Surge™ levels, especially if it brought a renewal of attacks against American forces.

United States military commanders have made a conscious effort to tone down their rhetoric and show al-Sadr respect by using the title "Sayed" before his name, and by referring to the cease fire as a pledge of honor. "Since we don't have a direct dialogue with him, this is our way of reaching out," said a U.S. military intelligence official.

"I hope he will go on like this, not fighting, but trying to use political means against Americans or against the government," said Kurdish legislator Mahmoud Othman.

Last Friday, after prayers in Sadr City, 300 women dressed in black from head-to-toe held signs and banners and moved slowly down a quiet, narrow street toward a billboard-sized portrait of the cleric. They were protesting the presence of American troops in their country, and the detention of hundreds of Iraqi Shiites who are loyal to al-Sadr.

"Anything that comes from Sayed Muqtada is good for us," said one of the protesting women, Hannah al Rubaye, using the honorific title for descendents of the prophet Mohammed. "After this step, we expect other orders from Sayed Muqtada. Patience has limits."

While everyone keeps a watchful eye toward Sayed Muqtada al-Sadr's next move, Iraqi politicians are pushing their own agendas, and al-Sadr's owm restless followers, are so far maintaining their allegiance. Tentatively.