Governments Will Fall

I can't help but look at stories like this and think about what comes next:

The U.N. World Food Program has flagged 30 nations confronting mounting food insecurity this year as a direct result of market forces; 22 of them are in Africa. As prices climb, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Senegal and other net food importers have been racked by civil unrest. Hunger is spiking in parts of the continent in patterns similar to past bouts of drought, floods or civil strife. In Mauritania -- a nation of 3 million straddling Arab and black Africa -- the number of people not getting enough food is up this year by 30 percent in rural areas despite a relatively good annual harvest, according to the WFP. A food emergency has been declared in broad sections of the country, with the food program rushing to roll out feeding stations.

U.N. experts, World Bank officials and aid groups fear it marks the onset of the worst food crisis in the region in decades; officials are calling for $755 million in fresh emergency food assistance from rich countries. Aid groups are already falling behind in their efforts to provide food across the continent, leaving even the poorest communities increasingly dependent on the market.

"This is the new face of hunger," said Josette Sheeran, WFP executive director.

Globalization was supposed to eliminate this kind of recurring disaster. With economists radiating confidence about the new efficiencies of the global market, the need for food self-sufficiency seemed almost archaic. In that new reality, global markets would provide the long-term cornucopia that the arid earth here could not, and at reasonable prices.

Globalization is the cause of these problems, not the solution. If you consider that having one genetic strain of seed material can lead to a lack of biodiversity, then that's globalization in a nutshell, pardon the pun. If the same seed grown in Iowa, Kenya and the Ukraine is susceptible to drought or some other type of failure, you have the makings of a global problem on your hands.

Everything has a cause and effect, and if people are starving and going without basic necessities, then the consequence of that is going to be unrest. Governments will fall. Revolutions will happen. Arable land that can sustain crops is going to increase in value, and armed men are going to protect their arable land or take it away from someone who is weaker. Flooding Africa with cheap arms and weapons means a greater chance of seeing ten or fifteen or even more regional wars could break out over scarce resources. If you don't think the issue of Ukraine trying to break away completely from Russia and become a separate entity matters, think of Russia starving while Ukraine feeds Europe. No, I don't think Putin is going to stand by and let that happen, either.

And, just in time, the Pentagon has created AFRICOM so they can "keep a handle" on all of these issues, right? Well, right now, they're temporarily based in Stuttgart, Germany.

No, that's not a joke.

Methinks we've perhaps gone 'round the bend on the biofuels bandwagon

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Across Africa NGOs and scientists are increasing their calls for a moratorium on new biofuels projects as millions and millions of acres of prime agricultural land in sub-Saharan Africa are switched from food production to biofuel production.

African governments, wooed by the prospect of a "Green Opec" and encouraged by their counterparts in industrialized nations have taken the bait; hook, line and sinker.

The prospect of being a part of a "green revolution," complete with promises of exports, job creation and energy security has seen countries converting prime cropland at breakneck speed - on the least food-secure continent on the face of the earth - has prompted African civil society groups to call for a time-out on further crop-switching for the near term. "We need to protect food security, forests, water, land rights, farmers and indigenous peoples from the aggressive march of agrofuel developments," reads the call for a moratorium.

In reality, the switch to biofuels crops has forced small farmers off the land, led to rising food costs and provided minimal benefits for local populations.

In Mozambique last week food riots erupted as government efforts to control the prices of bread and fuel failed, collapsing under the strain of soaring prices for oil and all food staples - driven in part for demand for biofuels.

"Africa is a wide open continent and the energy industry wants to take advantage," said the renowned Nigerian environmentalist Nnimmo Bassey. "This is a flashback to colonial plantations." Mr Bassey is part of the African Biodiversity Network, an umbrella group who met to discuss the crisis this week in South Africa.

Rich nations concerned with future energy security and climate change have begun to seek alternatives to fossil fuels that won't carry the political costs of calling for consumer restraint. In the US this has meant an epic extension of subsidies for big agricultural interests to switch corn production to ethanol. The European Union has committed itself to switching 10 per cent of all transport fuel to biofuels by 2020 with the shortfall in what can be grown inside the 27-nation bloc to be made up with imports from the developing world.

From the savannahs of west Africa to the rainforests of Congo, the plains of Tanzania and the wilderness of Ethiopia, governments are handing over huge tracts of fertile land to private companies aiming to convert biomass grown on large plantations into liquid fuels for export markets. African leaders like Senegal's Abdoulaye Wade are predicting a "green revolution" and looking eagerly to lucrative exports.

And isn't timing just everything?

Just as the Africian countries throw their lot in behind a biofuel revolution, the scientific community is saying "well, lets not be so hasty here..." Last week, the journal Science published a study that concluded that biofuels production contributes to climate change as the environmental cost of converting land to biofuel crops generates more carbon than it saves.

The rush to convert to biofuel crops in sub-Saharan Africa comes in spite of clear consensus that Africa will be the biggest loser as climate change leads to changing weather patterns, desertification, rises in sea levels and decreases in the availability of fresh water. The production of maize, the primary staple of southern Africa, is projected to drop by as much as one third in the next 20 years.

Last week the UN's two leading food agencies issued dire warnings that demand for biofuels could cause the poor to suffer hunger. Josette Sheeran of the World Food Program put it bluntly - "We're seeing many people being priced out of the food markets for the first time. For the world's most vulnerable, it's extremely urgent." On Wednedsay the Food and Agriculture Organization said that some 100 million tons of cereals are being diverted to biofuel production each year.

Caution is being advised even among organizations that have not joined the call for a moratorum. "There's a lot of concern about land grabs and displacement," said Bill Vorley, a senior analyst at the International Institute for Environment and Development in London. "Big plantations are back with the help of the 'green revolution' steamroller. It feels like we are back to the bad old days again."