Tuesday, June 12, 2007

This is starting to look like "strategy" to me

In the past seven weeks, as many bridges have been targeted by jihadist fighters in Iraq, bent on crippling the populace both logistically and psychologically by destroying infrastructure. (.pdf map of Baghdad with bridges labeled can be found here. Hat tip to Larry Johnson at No Quarter.)

This is an ominous trend.

The most obvious place my mind goes when this disturbing development is considered is the “sitting ducks” that are inevitably created; where traffic will bottleneck at the remaining routes across rivers and highways. The bombing on Monday that took out a bridge over the Diyala River means that traffic must be rerouted through insurgent-controlled Baquba. “Victims, right this way…”

And that leaps logically to the second place my mind goes: the strategic implications. Supply lines have not been cut, but they have sure as hell been complicated by this development. If this trend continues, the potential to isolate and cut off those “surge” troops that “surged” into neighborhoods from supplies and support is all too real.

(On the Faux News front, Bill O-Lie-ley has decided to push the bullshit line that these explosions don’t matter, and not only that, but that by the very act of reporting on these events, CNN and MSNBC are helping the terrorists winThink Progress has more, including the video)

Seven bridges have been closed or seriously compromised by this effort that is starting to look a hell of a lot like a full-fledged strategy at this point. In addition, it has a huge psychological impact on the Iraqi populace that is directly affected by these attacks.

And when it comes right down to it, we don’t have the troops to secure the infrastructure, let alone the capitol much less the entire damned country. So can we accept the reality of the situation on the ground, please, before we lose another 3500 to Bush’s splendid vanity war?

Even if you support it, how do you sustain it?

Folks, the Army is in trouble. It is going to take at minimum two decades to rebuild our Army. Five years of rugged warfare conditions have taken a steep toll on man and materiel alike. It's broken all right, and George Bush is the vandal who broke it.

That the Army missed their recruiting goals for May by 9.27% is just the tip of the iceberg. The real fractures go much deeper. Young officers are leaving the service in higher numbers than at any time since Vietnam. It is unprecedented – but the Army has been hemorrhaging officers and senior NCO’s in leadership positions for at least the last two years. When I started getting up in arms about it was when I read an editorial by Lucian Truscott IV in the New York Times two years ago that confirmed what I had been witnessing.

This compromises the quality of the leadership of the officer corps. Army OCS has a 100% acceptance rate, and Republican members of Congress are having a hard time finding qualified candidates to even apply to West Point. (I know applications have been falling for at least two years, and I am looking for the supporting link for that claim)

Take this data point for instance: 97% of all eligible Captains are being promoted to Major. Traditionally that number has been between 70-80%. The promotion to Major has heretofore been the winnowing point for career officers. Now, if you have Captain’s bars and sufficient time in service, and you haven’t been court-martialed yet, you will get Oak Leaf Clusters.


Now consider that even though we are missing all those officers, qualified applicants are not being informed of the OCS option because their numbers are needed to bolster the enlisted ranks. This is counterproductive recruiting and short-term thinking.

This exodus of seasoned officers has resulted in what can only be classified as promotion by attrition. And that is no way to run an Army.

Now – let’s consider the recruits to the enlisted ranks. Fully 17% of the recruits into service in FY 2006 were admitted to service on waivers. Can anyone imagine a scenario in which that figure would improve when have already recruited everyone who is fit and willing? (Yeah, me neither.)

So lets recap: In our Army, we have a bunch of hinky troops – and not enough of ‘em, by the way – and no one to lead them. Also keep in mind that the Army uses accounting methods in the billet shell game that would make a Hollywood accountant blush. (h/t SPfY for that line).

This is a recipe for disaster and a broken military. It’s time we face the facts and deal with them. I do not believe our military has time to let Bush run out the clock on his failed presidency. Congress needs to get tough, and they need to do so now, while they are writing the Defense Authorization Bill for FY 2008. The way things stand right now, we have at least a 20 year rebuilding process ahead of us. And we can't pay for it with tax cuts. It's time for a gut-check.

I owe Nora Ephron an apology

I was most unkind when she wrote that catty piece about Nancy Pelosi’s haircut last winter.

Well, I got a haircut yesterday evening.

It’ll look good in two weeks.